Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

[FRED]

The new iTulip will have EJ's Quick Comment in video format as well as in written form.

[bill]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

That black line is going the wrong way; we are in long term trouble.
How much of a drop in real GDP will it take to arrive at “on your knees event”?
Great video, keep talking!!!!

[metalman]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

That black line is going the wrong way; we are in long term trouble.
How much of a drop in real GDP will it take to arrive at “on your knees event”?
Great video, keep talking!!!!

'quick' comment is right... < 5 min. gets the point across... 'deep doo doo we are in' sez yoda.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

The only part I do not agree with is the "argentine death spiral". If you are rferring to the past when they hit sudden stop, it makes perfect sense. Today Argentine is doing fairly well (though much of that is because they stole the peoples pensions and stuffed them full of government bonds -- heeeyyy, wait a minute, haven't we heard rumors of that here as well?), as well as the fact they have not paid their creditors back from the past.

[RTQ]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

I wonder if there is any way to quantitatively relate the output gap area (integral over time) with the diminished ability to service all forms of debt (ie, less income from GDP resulting in less money available to pay interest on debt, let alone principal). This type of analysis might shed light on future directions in credit ratings on bonds, I just don't know how to do that analysis.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

Again, I love itulip. I have it up 24/7, but this 5 minute video in words would have taken me maybe 30 seconds to read. I would prefer the written to the video. I know many others will disagree.

[jpatter666]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

Again, I love itulip. I have it up 24/7, but this 5 minute video in words would have taken me maybe 30 seconds to read. I would prefer the written to the video. I know many others will disagree.

Myself -- I prefer written. My wife, who isn't as familiar with iTulip as I am, loves the new videos.

So while it would be nice for EJ to cater to ME ;-) I appreciate the ability to get the message out to a wider audience. As I recall, that's one of, if not *the* primary reasons for EJ being here in the first place.

[charliebrown]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

I agree with you my man. With words, I can parse them again and again, video, I constantly am rewinding and watching again. The music is also a distraction. It is a little too much in the front. Listen to the music in a Ken Burns, documentary, sometimes it it gone, a lot of time it is way in the background. The only time you really hear it is when he is trying to frame a new segment.

I don't have high speed internet at home. I am contemplating upgrading next year. Another $250 I don't have. But it is getting increasingly more difficult to run my life without it. Bill pay, kids school letters, pay stubs, etc are all there.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

The only part I do not agree with is the "argentine death spiral". If you are rferring to the past when they hit sudden stop, it makes perfect sense. Today Argentine is doing fairly well (though much of that is because they stole the peoples pensions and stuffed them full of government bonds -- heeeyyy, wait a minute, haven't we heard rumors of that here as well?), as well as the fact they have not paid their creditors back from the past.

In Spain we have had a series of recessions and, to the best of my knowledge, it has been a while since we closed the output gap in a recession before entering in the next. My own estimations are that Spain's output gap is about 8%, more or less. The result? 22% unemployment.

Is is true that there are a number of people working and not telling it to the government (we would have a revolution if the 22% of unemployment was real) but still many people are unemployed or underemployed. Perhaps 15-17% is a more realistic unemployment number, and it is huge.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

Again, I love itulip. I have it up 24/7, but this 5 minute video in words would have taken me maybe 30 seconds to read. I would prefer the written to the video. I know many others will disagree.

I totally agree.

[Serkan]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

I enjoyed this video. Hearing EJ's voice gave it the personal touch.

[charliebrown]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

Most of my comments related to the front page "The story of gold part I". This video presentation is bravo good. Eric speaks very cleary, and slowly enough, even for me, a non-verbal person to follow. The video only adds information, and the music only frames the main point. Bravo. Nice presentation.

[shiny!]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

I really liked the video.

There are visual learners, audial learners, kinesthetic learners... People have their preferences for the way they like to receive information, but "which is better" is quite subjective.

I think it's smart for iTulip to present information in as many different formats as possible. My suggestion would be for videos to have the text or transcript below, with graphs- just like the regular articles we are used to seeing. That would work for different learning styles. It would also be accessible to people who don't have broadband or have to use computers with scripts turned off.

Just my $0.02.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

...

[lektrode]

Re: Output Gap Trap escape doubtful as BEA revises GDP down, again

maybe a video with transcript below?
of course if this site gets any better than it already is, some of us might never get out of the house....