Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

[DSpencer]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

1: close ALL the .mil bases on foreign soil (cept those securing vital/strategic traderoutes/resources) and BRING OUR TROOPS HOME
2: nobody gets laid-off - any of them who wants to work gets re-deployed to REBUILD ***OUR*** INFRASTUCTURE
3: 1st project: fix the roads and bridges, build-out a high-speed rail network
4: 2nd project: immed and _massive_ build-out of appx 500 nuclear power stations, as fast as they can krankem out
5: tell the arabs: we have a 'new deal' for you: we will trade 1barrel for 1bushel of corn/wheat whatevahs - or?
you can EAT YOUR OIL
6: levy the FICA tax on _all_ income, every last dollar, from every source, until the socsec acct balances

adding: 7: this (#6) would allow the .gov, aka WE The People to rebuild a capital base, so that WE DONT HAVE TO PAY INTEREST to the 'federal' reserve/oligarchs to finance projects that keep the rest of us employed.

there - does that leave any oxen 'ungored' ?
because we need _all_ the oxes gored.

Am I understanding this correctly:

Soldiers who were trained to shoot rifles will be brought home to build high speed rail and nuclear power plants?

[lektrode]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Am I understanding this correctly:

Soldiers who were trained to shoot rifles will be brought home to build high speed rail and nuclear power plants?

yeah - thats part of the plan.

got a better one?

[lektrode]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Bravo. Pick any two from that list to implement and we'd be far better off.

ok - pick 2?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Front page of WSJ today: Fed prepared to act

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...LEFTTopStories

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2922...policy-options

According to the latest from Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ (widely acknowledged as being Ben Bernanke’s journalist of choice to communicate with the public) the Fed is now considering three different policy choices:

1) Operation Twist – “One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank’s portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.”

2) Cutting interest on reserves – “A second step under consideration at the Fed, one getting mixed reviews internally, would reduce or eliminate a 0.25% interest rate the Fed currently is paying banks that keep cash on reserve with the central bank.”

3) Language alteration – “A third step Fed officials are debating would involve using their words to make their economic objectives and plans for interest rates more clear.”

[DSpencer]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

yeah - thats part of the plan.

got a better one?

Well I'm a person using the internet, so of course I think I have a better plan!
Military spending should be drastically reduced. I agree on that part. I just don't see why we should continue paying people to do different jobs they may not be suited for. Especially ones that involve potentially deadly outcomes on a large scale if they are done wrong.

I might be missing something regarding the repair of roads and bridges. I spend most of my time in the Columbus/Dayton/Cincinnati Ohio area. The roads are constantly under construction. However, they typically don't seem to be in disrepair to begin. Maybe they are fine because they are fixed preemptively but I'm never able to fully convince myself of that.

I don't understand why we can't pay for our oil using money and have to revert to a barter system?

Re FICA - so if people pay more into SS, do they also get more out? Doesn't that just potentially enlarge and delay the problem?

To avoid criticizing without offering alternatives, here is my very brief counter-plan:

1. Drastically reduce military spending.
2. Simplify the tax code. Eliminate special interest loopholes in the process. This includes popular ones like home mortgage interest deduction.
3. Eliminate other forms of corporate favoritism and anti-competitive regulation.
4. Start some form of means testing for SS. Treat it as welfare for the elderly. Stop paying it to wealthy people.
5. Reduce the size and scope of government regulatory agencies and red tape. No more cracking down Amish farmers who want to drink raw milk, etc.
6. Stop the war on drugs.
7. Enforce existing laws on fraud and other white collar crime.
8. Incentive people to get off welfare systems. Make them into a truly last-ditch safety net.

All probably meaningless ideas unless we get society to actually wake up.

[Ghent12]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

1. Drastically reduce military spending.
...
All probably meaningless ideas unless we get society to actually wake up.

Political realities must be observed. Otherwise you're just spinning your wheels. Depending on what you mean by "drastic," it either ain't gonna happen or it's already happening.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

related to EJ's latest

Hussman on why the Fed's next set of 'tools' will not work: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110912.htm

In short, neither economic theory nor established economic evidence provides any basis for the belief that further monetary intervention and distortion would ease any binding constraint on the real economy at present. This does not, of course, rule out the possibility of speculation grounded in superstition and a misguided impulse to reach for yield, but the Fed's ability to weave yet another set of Emperor's Clothes is justifiably deteriorating.

[Guest]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print, spend, and wait has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Had ROI-based construction programs been started by the end of 2010, without question the following chart of construction spending would look different than it does today.

Public construction spending is below re-recession levels, peaking at the end of the recession in Q1 2009. Non-residential construction spending after recovering to 2006 levels in 2009 remains there today. Residential construction spending regressed to 1996 levels during the recession and has not recovered.

Hard to imagine a similar picture today if wide-ranging transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure project were underway.

Yes, but EJ's premise was that these energy efficiency "investments" would reduce energy use and cost and therefore be the equivalent of a "tax cut" in that they leave more money available for other spending. Therefore, it seems the poster had a very good point. While we'd be headed in the right direction (vs pissing the money away) it would not yet have had much opportunity to return energy savings dividends. Doubly so when you factor in the realistic slow pace of any government project.

For that reason I have to assume that we'd still be in just as big of a "gap" at this point in time. Besides, if one borrows $1T for these projects when rates are low and has to pay it back later when rates are high (due to the money printing) it would reduce or eliminate most of those savings, wouldn't it?

The problem with love of Keynesian theories on stimulus is that he didn't intend us to just do the deficit spending part of it. He expected us also pay it back during the good times. We never did and of course never will.

How about a theory on eliminating non-productive government spending like constant wars (there's $1T right there, with no interest!), garrisons world-wide, welfare and other entitlement spending for an undetermined number of illegal aliens, taxpayer subsidized education of foreigners, etc? (out of state tuition doesn't begin to cover it)

What about per capita GDP vs total GDP? If GDP stagnates but we engage in policies to reduce the number of unproductive residents and citizens, doesn't that allow us to raise the GDP relative to the population?

I mean as long as we're engaging in pipe-dream ideas of what politicians will do, why not go full bore into the other side of the equation besides "spending is good"?

[c1ue]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print, spend, and wait has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Yes, but EJ's premise was that these energy efficiency "investments" would reduce energy use and cost and therefore be the equivalent of a "tax cut" in that they leave more money available for other spending. Therefore, it seems the poster had a very good point. While we'd be headed in the right direction (vs pissing the money away) it would not yet have had much opportunity to return energy savings dividends. Doubly so when you factor in the realistic slow pace of any government project.

I am quite certain EJ's point isn't that TECI spending would fix the economic problem now.

The point is that debt itself isn't a problem if said debt enables the economy to grow, and therefore enables the debt to be repaid.

It isn't that TECI spending would magically make the US trade deficit disappear, or reduce US energy consumption spending immediately, but rather that the long term effect would be to effect some of these two benefits while building up technology/expertise and providing jobs in the meantime.

Even in the short term, some benefit could be almost immediate: for example government subsidies for conservation via insulation improvement.

Either way, the issue isn't the growth of the US federal deficit per se.

It is what is accomplished in doing so.

The $3 billion plus in accumulated deficits since Obama started his Presidency - how much of this has contributed in some way to either long or short term technology/expertise improvement? How much has contributed to long or short term economic infrastructure?

That's the issue - not whether to spend.

Had this money not been spent, the result would be Latvia/Greece: GDP falling at historically high rates.

[nidenel]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Can I have the source of that green image in the cover of the post, it is haunting. I love it.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Can I have the source of that green image in the cover of the post, it is haunting. I love it.

Go to view, (above), and scroll down to source, click on source and then find the associated text message in the Hypertext and that will tell you the colour, sorry color. All you then need to do is find the relevant information on the search engines.

Having said that, I cannot find any reference to colour on this web page which may relate to the underlying software system. So, in which case, try this link: http://html-color-codes.info/ There is a lot of information available on HTML color codes if you Google.

[nidenel]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Hi Chris, I am sure you meant to help by that post but I am having a hard time understanding how that html color code chart is relevant. I already looked at the code... I'm a web dev. I also ran a tineye search on it and couldn't find any thing. I meant, where the image came from. Is it an aritst's ? Was it made for this post by itulip staff? etc... Sorry for the bit of a derail.

[FRED]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

Hi Chris, I am sure you meant to help by that post but I am having a hard time understanding how that html color code chart is relevant. I already looked at the code... I'm a web dev. I also ran a tineye search on it and couldn't find any thing. I meant, where the image came from. Is it an aritst's ? Was it made for this post by itulip staff? etc... Sorry for the bit of a derail.

EJ took the photo of a painting hanging in the Museum of Contemporary Art in Nice, France. Unlike US museums where photography is forbidden, photography is encouraged. Unfortunately, EJ lost his notes that identified the artists. Below are others. Maybe readers can identify the less obvious ones, besides Robert Rauschenberg and Pablo Picasso.

[Prazak]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

That's a very underappreciated museum, surrounded as it is by so many other fine galleries and museums.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Illusion of Recovery – Part I: Print and pray has officially failed - Eric Janszen

EJ took the photo of a painting hanging in the Museum of Contemporary Art in Nice, France. Unlike US museums where photography is forbidden, photography is encouraged. Unfortunately, EJ lost his notes that identified the artists. Below are others. Maybe readers can identify the less obvious ones, besides Robert Rauschenberg and Pablo Picasso.

The horns I believe are Heroica by Arman. I don't recognize the others immediately, but google search by image should pick up a few for you.