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You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

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  • #61
    Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

    Originally posted by SalAndRichard View Post
    I came away with a diminished opinion of this website as a result of that exchange being posted for public consumption.
    Agreed 100%




    “The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.”


    From "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

      Originally posted by bagginz View Post
      Agreed 100%




      “The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.”


      From "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie

      You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

      What would you have done in EJ's situation? Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

        Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
        You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

        What would you have done in EJ's situation? Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?
        not only did ej have to reply… but fast...

        A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.
        Mark Twain (1835 - 1910), (attributed)

        more on mishmash...

        Liars when they speak the truth are not believed.
        Aristotle (384 BC - 322 BC), from Diogenes Laertius, Lives of Eminent Philosophers

        Sometimes the lies you tell are less frightening than the loneliness you might feel if you stopped telling them.
        Brock Clarke, An Arsonist's Guide to Writers' Homes in New England, 2007

        Ambition drove many men to become false; to have one thought locked in the breast, another ready on the tongue.
        Sallust (86 BC - 34 BC), The War with Catiline

        Repetition does not transform a lie into a truth.
        Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882 - 1945), radio address, October 26, 1939

        The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.
        Friedrich Nietzsche (1844 - 1900)

        A liar should have a good memory.
        Quintilian, De Institutione Oratoria
        (or make the effort to re-read his own material)

        Oh what a tangled web we weave,
        When first we practise to deceive!
        Sir Walter Scott (1771 - 1832), Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.
        Last edited by metalman; August 14, 2011, 10:31 AM.

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

          I agree a reply was in order. Just not via posted private(?) emails and with the lack of dispassion you'd want to see. It was becoming personal and about the individuals, not the ideas. Sometimes when you go there you wind up arguing points just to destroy the opponent, even stuff you don't always believe.

          Itulip may be for economic experts, but as a novice I can tell you that if it got its act together in terms of layout it would certainly have many more subscribers than it does now.

          -front page is a mess and slow to load due to number of ads. They're clutter that is probably ignored when present in that layout anyway.
          -new items from EJ are not always readily apparent to new users.
          -there is no place to quickly find previous "calls" for reference. If you have a hypothetical "portfolio", why is it not posted prominently rather than some random article? New users want to see a track record at a glance. The absence of such breeds suspicion.
          - the fonts are not that appealing
          -The front left corner, the first place the eye moves, is not even Itulip material, just random videos from Youtube. My first visits I assumed they were itulip's main focus.
          -not enough "free" content to draw in new subscribers.
          -commentaries should be seperate from forums for ease of browsing them.
          -organization of archived commentaries should be easier to access.
          -way too many random items on front page. Great, you were published in two prominent magazines. But why give years old columns the same amount of space as your most important new commentary?

          If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

          Find a more demanding editor for EJ's posts ( too many typos, small errors, run-on sentences, too-long sentences, excessive use of economic shorthand jargon when plainspeak would do, etc that require more effort to read.) This is the internet age. Things happen fast. Bottom line it, then fill in the details for those who may wish to challenge your theories. Those who want more can then dig in deeper if they wish. Those who trust your work implicitly can save time reading stuff they don't want to.

          Great source of information, but not public-friendly. No wonder the other guy has more traffic.

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

            Originally posted by SalAndRichard View Post
            If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".
            You are crossing the line here SalAndRichard.

            Lastly, since you are obviously new here and never had access to the select content; I will tell you that iTulip is the best value hands down on the web or elsewhere. The track record is there to prove it. So do yourself a favor and unlike Mish, simply look it up - it is not that hard - you can even use google and I am sure even you can manage that.
            Last edited by LargoWinch; August 26, 2011, 07:07 AM.

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

              Originally posted by SalAndRichard View Post
              If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".
              I don't think I've ever read a more ridiculous analogy in my life. You're seriously comparing a macro focused investing site's frequency of updates to a garbage man that spends at most 1 min in front of your house each month?

              You've only been around a couple months but do you really think you're telling anyone here something new about the website?

              If you're looking for trading tips then go to a trading site. This one is very successfully focused on macro investing trends, and we should be lucky EJ spends any time sharing his analysis with us. He doesn't need subscribers to pay his bills which is why he's happy to be selective and have fewer. You don't even have Select access so I'm not sure how you can pass judgement on the volume or quality of information available on iTulip.

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

                Originally posted by raja View Post
                But I'm with Munger and SalandRichard on this one . . . . except with SandR's "EJ wins the argument so far with me in terms of my investments," with which I disagree.
                Care to expand on this?

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                  Originally posted by SalAndRichard View Post
                  If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".
                  SalAndRichard,

                  But, as EJ said in his reply to Mish, he doesn't give a damn about the popularity of the site, he cares about the quality and thoughtfulness of the readers who end up being participants and often provoking thoughts which might help with the analysis.

                  Anyone who can see the value of the analysis similarly doesn't give a damn about spelling or aesthetics.

                  I've harped on the site appearance before as well, but mainly in frustration for the lack of recognition for EJ's work - of which perhaps the off putting site is a component.

                  The subscriber base, including me, is still giddy that such analysis is available to them virtually for free. I know of mid profile and high profile names who charge hundreds of thousands to clients. Largely, they don't even have a clue what their talking about - what they do is follow the quarterly trends data points and try to stay a few weeks ahead of them -everything occurs to them as a thunderbolt - they come off, erroneously, looking prescient, but their analysis consistently does not produce the opportunity to buy mis-priced assets because it is junk economics or narrative nonsense.

                  That said, there is a new site format coming out in Sept/Oct.
                  --ST (aka steveaustin2006)

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                    Originally posted by SalAndRichard View Post
                    I agree a reply was in order. Just not via posted private(?) emails and with the lack of dispassion you'd want to see. It was becoming personal and about the individuals, not the ideas. Sometimes when you go there you wind up arguing points just to destroy the opponent, even stuff you don't always believe.

                    Itulip may be for economic experts, but as a novice I can tell you that if it got its act together in terms of layout it would certainly have many more subscribers than it does now.

                    -front page is a mess and slow to load due to number of ads. They're clutter that is probably ignored when present in that layout anyway.
                    -new items from EJ are not always readily apparent to new users.
                    -there is no place to quickly find previous "calls" for reference. If you have a hypothetical "portfolio", why is it not posted prominently rather than some random article? New users want to see a track record at a glance. The absence of such breeds suspicion.
                    - the fonts are not that appealing
                    -The front left corner, the first place the eye moves, is not even Itulip material, just random videos from Youtube. My first visits I assumed they were itulip's main focus.
                    -not enough "free" content to draw in new subscribers.
                    -commentaries should be seperate from forums for ease of browsing them.
                    -organization of archived commentaries should be easier to access.
                    -way too many random items on front page. Great, you were published in two prominent magazines. But why give years old columns the same amount of space as your most important new commentary?

                    If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

                    Find a more demanding editor for EJ's posts ( too many typos, small errors, run-on sentences, too-long sentences, excessive use of economic shorthand jargon when plainspeak would do, etc that require more effort to read.) This is the internet age. Things happen fast. Bottom line it, then fill in the details for those who may wish to challenge your theories. Those who want more can then dig in deeper if they wish. Those who trust your work implicitly can save time reading stuff they don't want to.

                    Great source of information, but not public-friendly. No wonder the other guy has more traffic.
                    No long-term user of the site has *ever* to my knowledge claimed it was height of useability. I'll certainly admit that if EJ hired some content managers to overhaul the site, handle interviews and interact more with the subscribers he could probably increase paying traffic to easily handle the additional cost.

                    That said:

                    1 ) Find me a site that allows the level of distributed information and *quality* of discussion to non-paying members (i.e. this means you so far as I can tell)
                    2 ) EJ has stated several times this site is *not* his source of income. He views it as a calling to try and inform the public as to what is really happening (see point #1)
                    3 ) You are welcome to solicit your garbage man's views of how to weather the current problems and invest. Please keep us informed on the track record.

                    Honestly, are you really reading what you are writing? To take you at face value, you'd prefer to have drivel every day than insightful and useful commentary once a month....believe me, most of us would dearly love more, but we'll take whatever we can get because we recognize the value.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                      I had two responses. Emotionally, i could relate to the 'why is EJ airing dirty laundry'? impression and sense weakness.

                      However, as someone who has always been on an extreme of valuing truth over popularity, and knowing others like that, i see it more as the ONE thing those that are committed to truth get. We don't get recognition, we don't stay employed easily, we don't get easy social interactions, what we get is the RIGHT to call people out, be confrontational, and not back down from the argument when it gets political because we have no 'blood on our hands' from spinning lies for personal gain. In that way, i see all of this as EJ saying, you all refuse to talk about accountability and re-examine the accuracy of past predictions because it doesn't serve your agenda. This site does. And accordingly, in that last post...

                      iTulip flew it's freak flag with pride.

                      Proud to be a member. Warts and all.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

                        Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                        You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.
                        Hello Largo,
                        yes I'm aware that this was the response (or more correctly IMO a reaction (i.e driven by emotion)

                        I'm also aware that it's part of a longstanding ongoing public feud between EJ and Mish.

                        In my book, justifying the public venting of spleens by saying "Well he started it!" isn't the level of behaviour that I've come to expect from iTulip.

                        I honestly think allowing a conversation to degenerate into a public mud-slinging match does nobody any good at all. On the contrary, I believe it actually damages the reputations of all parties involved, certainly in my mind.


                        Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                        What would you have done in EJ's situation?
                        Well most of the damage had aleady been done by helping to antagonize the situation in the first place, see:

                        "And, of course, guys like Mike (Mish) Shedlock and Rock Ackerman simply got it wrong, but will never admit it." and using terms like "Duh-flation" for example: http://www.sjsugeology.org/sedlock/1...Etc_080408.pdf

                        If one wants to indulge one's sense of self-righteousness by mocking others publically (whether one is correct or not) then fine. Just that there's always a cost.

                        I would have taken it up with Mish personally via email and most importantly in a friendly, human and diplomatic manner with a view to finding common understanding via email, rather than reacting in what quite frankly is an insulting, rude and goading manner.

                        I also consider it bad manners and a breach of the confidentiality implicit in emails to publish personal emails publically.

                        Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                        (do) Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?
                        In my view, doing nothing at all is a perfectly reasonable option. Sit tight and be right.

                        EJ say's he's interested in the truth rather than traffic, so no problem, the truth will out eventually no? All comes to him that waits...

                        Most of us know EJ's superb track record and that his analysis is among the very best available anywhere. In all likelihood Mish will end up being incorrect and quite possibly end up with egg on his face anyway.

                        And if he doesn't end up with egg on his face, will we cry all the way to the bank?

                        Cheers,
                        bagginz

                        In taking revenge, a man is but even with his enemy; but in passing it over, he is superior.

                        Sir Francis Bacon
                        Last edited by bagginz; August 14, 2011, 02:54 PM. Reason: adding a link

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                          Originally posted by Jill Nephew View Post
                          .....see all of this as EJ saying, you all refuse to talk about accountability and re-examine the accuracy of past predictions because it doesn't serve your agenda. This site does. And accordingly, in that last post...

                          iTulip flew it's freak flag with pride.

                          Proud to be a member. Warts and all.
                          +1
                          but...what warts?
                          when one is calling out the flagrant fraud that we see in the capture/take-over of The US .gov by the FIREmen, aided and abetted by the DC aristocracy who allows it to happen?
                          one isnt aiming for 'popularity' or mr janszen might've been invited over to capitol hill for a beer or a round of golf, or 2

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                            Originally posted by steveaustin2006 View Post
                            ...
                            Anyone who can see the value of the analysis similarly doesn't give a damn about spelling or aesthetics.
                            ....
                            The subscriber base, including me, is still giddy that such analysis is available to them virtually for free. I know of mid profile and high profile names who charge hundreds of thousands to clients. Largely, they don't even have a clue what their talking about - what they do is follow the quarterly trends data points ....
                            +1 and another .5 for the bernanks cut

                            i'm certainly no expert in investing/economics (why i'm here, to learn, from some of The Best, who share quite readily their acumen and observations), but after being an avid consumer of business news/commentary for 35years+, it wasnt until i found the itulip that i realized just how much i _dont_ know - but what this site, EJ in particular, has done for me, is to have FORCED MY EYEBALLS WIDE OPEN about the politics of money/finance in the world

                            and what a rude awakening it was...

                            dunno about the rest, salnrich, but since they have laid out all the 'shortcomings' (?) for us, can you show me a forum with more thorough and actionable analysis/intelligence than itulip?

                            never mind one that doesnt cost much more than 'garbage pickup'...

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                              Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                              You are crossing the line here SalAndRichard. If you don't like the site, simply go back to the hole where you came from.

                              Lastly, since you are obviously new here and never had access to the select content; I will tell you that iTulip is the best value hands down on the web or elsewhere. The track record is there to prove it. So do yourself a favor and unlike Mish, simply look it up - it is not that hard - you can even use google and I am sure even you can manage that.
                              Hear Hear.... and basically agreed... seems somewhat trollish in their comments too.



                              I've had multiple run ins with Mish over the years and can testify that he "responded" to EJ in his "normal" way, with personal attacks, spew etc. instead of actual facts or logic. While I'm not fond of airing "dirty laundry", in this case I do agree with posting the emails and for one reason - it shows a much fuller picture of Mish - the one some see when disagreeing with his "dubious journalism" as in my article Dollar intervention: Facts versus ideology which was a response to his comments about one of my charts.

                              As far as track records, someone posted a link to his employers actual performance - and its quite poor.

                              The traffic to his site, per Alexa, has not been growing at all for about two years and I've noted increasing criticism of others this year, especially those with higher growth rates or higher overall traffic.

                              In his article "Failure to Consider Constraints - My Response to..." in November 2010, he finally admitted that inflation had been happening - about 18 months late even when measured by the inaccurate BLS CPI.

                              As far as inflation, even per my mild adjustments to CPI (less than those from shadowstats), CPI w/o lies never dropped even vaguely close to zero. Mish has never even vaguely addressed the problems with the BLS CPI that causes it to be way too low:
                              • Hedonics
                              • Substitution bias
                              • OER switch in 1982
                              • Boskin Commission results in 1996
                              • Health care is about 6% of CPI, but about 17% of GDP
                              • Geometric weighting
                              • etc.


                              There are dozens and dozens more examples, but it's relatively pointless to enumerate them here - most can easily see through him and most of the content on his site.
                              http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

                                Warts meaning mistakes. The only thing ultimately we can learn from (ours or others).

                                Comment

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