You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[GRG55]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

mis-spelling your name makes it a little harder to find you.

Mish just bought a house. It's cheaper than it was when he looked at it last year. Ergo: DEflation.

Since he's been living with his parents, until the very recent house purchase, he has no clue what has happened to food prices since he's never had to go grocery shopping, and since he uses Dad's car and never fills the tank, he has no clue what has happened with energy prices.

That's my theory, and I'm sticking with it. ;-)

EVERY great inflation starts with food and energy. When you live a sheltered life...

[pianodoctor]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I just want to say I really appreciate this article. Not having an econ background, I struggle to grasp the whole of EJs thesis and it helps when he restates it like this, using different words than were written the first time.

[solitas777]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I've read Mish and studied his track record, and he's been wrong one to many times. Eric Janszen on the other hand has the best track record, it's why I bought his book, it's why I advocate his ideas to all my friends in the state legislature, and it's why I squirrel my meager savings according to his advice. Prechter and Mish keep predicting some sort of major deflationary collapse ala the great depression and each time the date has arrived they move it back like those strange doomsday prophets in the news. The economy is going to complete hell. I need good advice that's going to keep myself, and my families head above water in the hard times to come, and Eric has the best track record for me to help me manage my way through our economic collapse.

[seobook]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I think the "fashionable financial link" should point at
http://www.itulip.com/gold.htm
rather than
http://www.itulip.com/forums/www.itulip.com/gold.htm
(I think the link is missing the http part)

anyone have the ticker symbol for ointment handy?

[Iron Zeppelin]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Thanks Mish, you gave a wonderful EJ summary post

[Southernguy]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

"I'm not sure when you got on the Treasury bond bandwagon, but welcome aboard. I've been on it publicly for 11 years. By the way, it will soon be time to get off".

That phrase has a lot of very important implications. For us as investors (short the US treasuries market) but for the whole world as well.
Once interest rates are up the whole world economy suffers, specially "peripheric" nations, as mine. This was the history when Volcker raised int. rates creating the Latin American debt crisis.
I understand next time rates shall rise not because the US gov-fed will but because markets begin selling their share of treasuries.
The US is now a net debtor nation, when Volcker raised rates it was a net creditor.
I am waiting for the moment when EJ explains all these in detail.
I repeat it´s not only about one´s monies, it´s about billions of peoples lives..
Maybe this time it shall be different. Instead of inmense capital flight from the periphery to central-industrialized nations we shall have very high dollar denominated inflation while capital still flows from centre to periphery.
Am I wrong?

[seanm123]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Don't mishandle my money!


Verb 1. mishandle - make a mess of, destroy or ruin; "I botched the dinner and we had to eat out"; "the pianist screwed up the difficult passage in the second movement"
bobble, bodge, bollix, bollix up, bollocks, bollocks up, botch, botch up, bumble, bungle, flub, fluff, foul up, fuck up, louse up, mess up, muck up, ball up, spoil, muff, screw up, fumble, blow
go wrong, miscarry, fail - be unsuccessful; "Where do today's public schools fail?"; "The attempt to rescue the hostages failed miserably"
2. mishandle - manage badly or incompetently; "The funds were mismanaged"
mismanage, misconduct
handle, manage, care, deal - be in charge of, act on, or dispose of; "I can deal with this crew of workers"; "This blender can't handle nuts"; "She managed her parents' affairs after they got too old"

[Slimprofits]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Alexa ranks web traffic with the lower the number, the higher the worldwide rank among millions of websites.

Alexa rank for Mish: 21,000

Alexa Rank for itulip: 150,000

Yes, this emphasizes how unbelievably stupid the mass of humanity is, but it is actually a good thing for us.

Please remember these statistics when you are wondering who we will sell all our gold to...: )

Even more telling is Zero Hedge at 2490 in the global rankings.

[Bundi]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

"I'm not sure when you got on the Treasury bond bandwagon, but welcome aboard. I've been on it publicly for 11 years. By the way, it will soon be time to get off".

That phrase has a lot of very important implications. For us as investors (short the US treasuries market) but for the whole world as well.
Once interest rates are up the whole world economy suffers, specially "peripheric" nations, as mine. This was the history when Volcker raised int. rates creating the Latin American debt crisis.
I understand next time rates shall rise not because the US gov-fed will but because markets begin selling their share of treasuries.
The US is now a net debtor nation, when Volcker raised rates it was a net creditor.
I am waiting for the moment when EJ explains all these in detail.
I repeat it´s not only about one´s monies, it´s about billions of peoples lives..
Maybe this time it shall be different. Instead of inmense capital flight from the periphery to central-industrialized nations we shall have very high dollar denominated inflation while capital still flows from centre to periphery.
Am I wrong?

Time to get off the Treasury train may not necessarily mean time to short treasuries. Couldn't the Fed continue to be manipulative of Treasury rates, even in the face of creditor selling? I suppose it would get real messy if they tried. This doesn't mean Treasuries would remain a smart real return investment though.

[ST]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Even more telling is Zero Hedge at 2490 in the global rankings.

Wow! I suppose from this data we can conclude that:

• always-on alarmism is popular
• popularity requires an absence of rigorous analysis
• complexity loses to sound byte actionable investment advice every time
• strong words beats out thoughtful analysis
• if we add financial journalism in general (gossip with nil value) then entertainment beats all else

No surprise, I suppose. No one today wants to read thesis, only the executive summary. I suppose we should be happy since it likely produces investment opportunities.

[Munger]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Delete

[Munger]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Delete

[Munger]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Good post, but I sense a shifting of the iTulip position to fit the facts as well.

When I first started coming to this site in 2006, the story was KaPoom. I.e., short period of disinflation followed by POOM, or high sustained inflation. It's been a while since I've heard that theory spouted around these parts, mostly because it's been wrong. I remember seeing some short shifting of positions along the lines of "inflation is a process, not an event," but for the most part, at this point, I consider iTulip's KaPoom theory as posited in 2006 etc just plain wrong. An expanding monetary base has proven to not lead directly to high sustained inflation. Rather, the liquidity trap view of new keynsians has proved remarkably accurate. It's interesting that this group has actually been calling for higher sustained inflation to deal with the debt load, but the political process will not let it happen.

The CPI has been around 1% for several years now. No matter how you spin it, this cannot prove an "inflation" theory as correct. This inflation is among the lowest we'e ever seen. Yes, deflation predictions were flat wrong, but so were high sustained inflation predictions. I also recall seeing comparisons to Argentina, albeit with intelligent caveats involving the status of the dollar as the reserve currency. It seems fairly obvious to me now that the correct comparison was Japan, which I don't recall seeing here back in 2007.

Anyways, my point is that while I still value EJs take on things (and he has a remarkable ability to simplify tough economic concepts and incorporate political aspects into his analysis), I feel this was not being entirely forthcoming in portraying itself as 100% accurate. I wo uld like to see an update regarding why KaPoom as stated in 2007 was not entirely correct, and why. I think a modified version is likely accurate, in which an extended period of very low inflation is followed by an extended period of moderate inflation.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Good post, but I sense a shifting of the iTulip position to fit the facts as well.

When I first started coming to this site in 2006, the story was KaPoom. I.e., short period of disinflation followed by POOM, or high sustained inflation. It's been a while since I've heard that theory spouted around these parts, mostly because it's been wrong. I remember seeing some short shifting of positions along the lines of "inflation is a process, not an event," but for the most part, at this point, I consider iTulip's KaPoom theory as posited in 2006 etc just plain wrong. An expanding monetary base has proven to not lead directly to high sustained inflation. Rather, the liquidity trap view of new keynsians has proved remarkably accurate. It's interesting that this group has actually been calling for higher sustained inflation to deal with the debt load, but the political process will not let it happen.

The CPI has been around 1% for several years now. No matter how you spin it, this cannot prove an "inflation" theory as correct. This inflation is among the lowest we'e ever seen. Yes, deflation predictions were flat wrong, but so were high sustained inflation predictions. I also recall seeing comparisons to Argentina, albeit with intelligent caveats involving the status of the dollar as the reserve currency. It seems fairly obvious to me now that the correct comparison was Japan, which I don't recall seeing here back in 2007.

Anyways, my point is that while I still value EJs take on things (and he has a remarkable ability to simplify tough economic concepts and incorporate political aspects into his analysis), I feel this was not being entirely forthcoming in portraying itself as 100% accurate. I wo uld like to see an update regarding why KaPoom as stated in 2007 was not entirely correct, and why. I think a modified version is likely accurate, in which an extended period of very low inflation is followed by an extended period of moderate inflation.

Munger, because Ka-Poom has not yet happened doesn't mean it is wrong. Select members are also kept up to date with the process - including a "live chat event" earlier this week during the crux of market volatility.

Also, CPI is not an accurate measure of inflation, therefore someone claiming that because CPI is low there isn't inflation is both wrong and naive.

[Munger]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Delete