The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

[necron99]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

It just seems that no matter what laws you pass, how can you stop people with an agenda from avoiding a term with negative connotation in favor of a new term?

That's a great question. Yes, it has been going on for decades -- or probably centuries. But I wasn't suggesting this could be stopped, just pointing it out. I agree that laws would be useless to stop this process (you'll note I disagreed with EJ's offhand remark about a Constitutional amendment). As I wrote above, I would prefer to see everybody educated to recognize and understand the use of memes and PR. But our current educational system is obviously failing in this regard. I don't have any answers and I don't think the process is going to stop.

So, at the very least it's incumbent upon people like us -- everybody in these iTulip forums seems savvy and educated -- to point out and expose these memes and PR, to everybody else. Even if, as I do, I quibble with EJ's analysis of the "Climate Change" meme... the mere fact of identifying it as a managed meme, helps me and others to gain the necessary intellectual distance from it in order to evaluate such things more dispassionately.

[RebbePete]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

I think you may have inadvertently made one of EJ's main points for him - not
about climate change, but about the incredibly pervasive influence of P.R...
that is almost invisible, or so taken for granted that its not recognized as
such.

For anyone interested in some history, I recommend some research on
Edward Bernays. Its not conspiracy, it's a real live subject that has been
taught for many decades and is also part of advertising and marketing
"technology".

• "The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and
  opinions of the [public] is an important element in democratic society. Those
  who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible
  government which is the true ruling power of our country."
  -- Edward Bernays
  (1891-1995) "Father" of modern public relations (PR) and director of the U.S.
  Committee on Public Information during World War I, on government propaganda.
  Source: writing in "Propaganda" from "Food & Water Journal'' (1928)
• "It is not necessary for the politician to be the slave of the public's
  group prejudices, if he can learn how to mold the mind of the voters in
  conformity with his own ideas of public welfare and public service. The
  important thing for the statesman of our age is not so much to know how to
  please the public, but to know how to sway the public.
  Those who manipulate
  this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is
  the true ruling power of our country."
  -- Edward Bernays (1891-1995)
• "If we understand the mechanism and motives of the group mind, it is now
  possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without them
  knowing it."
  -- Edward Bernays

Thanks! Excellent articles and video. I had read about the influence of psychology on marketing, but had never known who the pioneer was. Terrifying.

[necron99]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

For once, c1ue, we're on the same page! You raise a great point that the principles arent' new. And the financial predation didn't arise spontaneously, true. But it seems like we've reached the point of prominens ad absurdium. Everything's been so honed, exaggerated and refined that there's nowhere else left to go besides blowing up.

Humans and human values have effectively been priced out of the market, when you can't make a simple investment trade without monolithic computer servers fighting for the closest physical proximity to the Wall Street fiber optic lines, in order to skew your price.

Columbia Journalism Review

Two weeks after RS published it, Reuters broke a fascinating story that a Goldman computer programmer had left the firm, absconding with a huge piece of the code for its super-secret automated-trading platform.
The programmer was arrested in seemingly record time, but not before he uploaded it to a German server, leading the prosecutor to say this in arguing for a high bail:
> "The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways."
Which we and others have noted is a pretty astonishing statement. If “somebody” can use the program to “manipulate markets in unfair ways,” then Goldman can, too. And how would we know if it was? That stuff is a black box and I doubt regulators have ever been under the hood—or would know what to look for if they have.

Henry Blodget

The REAL lesson most investors should take away from the largest institutional insider-trading investigation in history is that competition in the global financial markets is so intense that it's basically idiotic to trade. ... What they miss is that their competition has all this information, too -- so it doesn't give anyone an edge. They also don't understand that, in addition to all this information, the folks they are competing with have millions and millions of dollars to spend gathering information that will never be published anywhere or appear on an screen or chart or graph.
One glance from a CEO in response to a pointed question can contain more information than 500 pages of SEC filings. One nugget of scuttlebutt about the status of an important contract can make you more money than 500 hours of studying charts and graphs. Most small investors don't understand that their competition gets this sort of information all day long.
In short, it doesn't matter whether the trading game is played on "a level playing field" (and of course it isn't.) The New York Jets will still destroy any high-school football team, no matter what field the game is played on.

...Blodget goes on to say that the only sane strategy is quiet, unassuming, long-term investments -- but the sharks keep invading those pools too. Besides, if you're chasing only the low-percentage, stolid returns, then poor national fiscal policy quickly swallows up your gains with its stealth taxes and inflation.

You mention, c1ue, that these age-old scams are now taking place "only in a different environment", but that changed environment -- especially the electronic environment, where you're only as good as the T1 connection you can afford -- makes the difference between survival and death. Hence my example with the dinosaurs.

[c1ue]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

You mention, c1ue, that these age-old scams are now taking place "only in a different environment", but that changed environment -- especially the electronic environment, where you're only as good as the T1 connection you can afford -- makes the difference between survival and death. Hence my example with the dinosaurs.

The point of the age-old scams is you simply avoid those areas.

Rather than attempt to out-scam the scammer, you choose areas in which the age old scams don't work - or at least are different. Having a T1 or not makes no difference if the actual behavior is dependent on information you cannot have access to - like the whole "Trading Places" scam.

Passive investing is very much a classic playground of the unscrupulous and inventive.

[metalman]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

That's a great question. Yes, it has been going on for decades -- or probably centuries. But I wasn't suggesting this could be stopped, just pointing it out. I agree that laws would be useless to stop this process (you'll note I disagreed with EJ's offhand remark about a Constitutional amendment). As I wrote above, I would prefer to see everybody educated to recognize and understand the use of memes and PR. But our current educational system is obviously failing in this regard. I don't have any answers and I don't think the process is going to stop.

So, at the very least it's incumbent upon people like us -- everybody in these iTulip forums seems savvy and educated -- to point out and expose these memes and PR, to everybody else. Even if, as I do, I quibble with EJ's analysis of the "Climate Change" meme... the mere fact of identifying it as a managed meme, helps me and others to gain the necessary intellectual distance from it in order to evaluate such things more dispassionately.

An Interview with Wendell Potter, Insurance Company Whistleblower

When the former mouthpiece for two of the country’s largest health insurers starts spilling the beans on the secrets health insurance companies don’t want you to know, it’s time to start listening.
Private health insurers are completely beholden to Wall Street. Wall Street cares about one thing only: money. Not quality of care, not life expectancy, not access to medical treatment. Wall Street cares about money. And insurance companies care about Wall Street. This system is broken.
In this candid interview with Guernica, Wendell Potter reveals the deceptive tactics used by an industry that is totally devoted to defeating health care reform.

Guernica: During your time in the industry, you created health insurance front groups to mislead the public. Can you give me an example of one of these front groups?
Wendell Potter: When the Clinton plan collapsed [in 1994], there was an effort to pass legislation that would give enrollees in managed care more protections. The industry saw this as anti-managed care legislation, so they established a group called the Health Benefits Coalition. The Health Benefits Coalition, with the funding it got from the insurance industry, killed off the effort to get a Patient’s Bill of Rights passed. A more recent example of a front group I was involved with was trying to blunt the effect of [Michael Moore’s documentary] Sicko. Through a PR firm, the industry created a front group to disseminate misleading information about the healthcare systems featured in Sicko—particularly in Canada, the U.K., and France. This front group was set up specifically to try to counter [Moore’s positive depiction of them].
Guernica: What were your duties with these front groups?
Wendell Potter: To help form messaging and develop strategy with public relations firms. PR firms help create the front groups and serve as the back offices to get the work done. The insurance industry contributes advice and counsel and feedback, but the real work gets done by the PR firms that the insurance industry hires.
Guernica: Was it difficult for you to discredit a movie you felt was accurate?
Wendell Potter: It was very difficult. I was beginning to hate my job. I’d look in the mirror and say, “Who is this? How did this happen to you?” But I had a job to do and was being paid quite a bit, so I soldiered on. I wouldn’t have stayed as long as I did if I didn’t believe that the company I worked for was honest and trying to meet the needs of people. I believed I was making some kind of positive contribution. As I was climbing up the corporate ladder, I got to understand more about how the companies make money and how they are so beholden to Wall Street—both investors and Wall Street analysts—and the things that they do to meet Wall Street’s expectations.
Guernica: You worked in the industry for twenty years. It doesn’t seem like it should have taken so long.
Wendell Potter: You don’t really focus on it or understand the significance of it. I’ll admit I knew that Wall Street looked at the medical-loss ratio. I knew it was an important measure. I didn’t know until, frankly, very recently how important it was. As recently as fifteen years ago, the medical-loss ratio in this country was 95 percent. Since then, there’s been great industry consolidation to the point that now there are seven companies that dominate. They’re all for-profit. During the time that this consolidation, this shift to for-profit occurred, the medical-loss ratio has continued to drop. Now it’s around 80 percent. That means twenty cents of every dollar goes to something other than paying medical claims. Just fifteen years ago, ninety-five cents of every dollar went to paying medical claims. This trend is due to pressure from Wall Street. If a company misses Wall Street’s expectations—if the medical-loss ratio starts to inch up—the company will suffer. I’ve seen companies lose 20 percent of their stock value in one day by disappointing Wall Street with their medical-loss ratio.

Read the whole interview here.

[necron99]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

An Interview with Wendell Potter, Insurance Company Whistleblower

Beautiful example. Maybe we could pass a law to snip at this or that specific practice, but it wouldn't stem the gigantic tide of abuse of memes. Laws aren't useless, but they're not a viable answer in-and-of themselves.

[jk]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

Beautiful example. Maybe we could pass a law to snip at this or that specific practice, but it wouldn't stem the gigantic tide of abuse of memes. Laws aren't useless, but they're not a viable answer in-and-of themselves.

imo calling this "abuse of memes" obscures rather than illuminates. it's just abuse. period. or perhaps "financial abuse," reflecting the financialization of our whole political economy.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

Beautiful example. Maybe we could pass a law to snip at this or that specific practice, but it wouldn't stem the gigantic tide of abuse of memes. Laws aren't useless, but they're not a viable answer in-and-of themselves.

We once had a perfectly adequate mechanism; competition. But today the investor is Wall Street, or as here, the "City" and they do not permit competition.

The answer is to accept that their model has completely failed and must now be replaced by something new; but, ultimately, exactly the same as once worked well. Good old fashioned arms length investment into a fully competitive industrial economy.

That will require everyone to stop placing their money in the existing institutions.

[necron99]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

imo calling this "abuse of memes" obscures rather than illuminates. it's just abuse. period. or perhaps "financial abuse," reflecting the financialization of our whole political economy.

It is just abuse. Period. I'm with you there. Memes are just the toolkit.

But "abuse" is about as hard to judge as the word "memes". It'd be nice if we could just pass a law against "abuse" in general, but it'd be impossible to implement or for people to plan their business models around. The anti-abuse law would inevitably be abused!

I often used to say that people would be equally happy under a Communist system as they would under a Capitalist system -- if only nobody would abuse the system. Unfortunately that's not realistic. Abuse is the root problem.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

occassionaly the truth slips out

This is what Cynthia Tucker said on MSNBC this morning about the Ames, Iowa straw poll. "Ames is inconsequential (re: the GOP nomination), but it helps the media create a narrative."

[KGW]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

They can't quite put their finger on the fact that, while the deaths of these young men are sad, they are simply soldiers of the legions of Rome. They did not make the "ultimate sacrifice" for US. Honoring them simply continues the "meme," if you will, that the U.S is pursuing an honorable path.

The only path the U.S. is on is one of desperation.

[SamAdams]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

[SIZE=4]The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys
Now that the primary engine of growth for the past 40 years, falling interest rates, has come to a grinding halt, how can productive enterprises be encouraged to drive the economy forward fast enough to allow the economy to exit the Output Gap Trap?
Full Disclaimer[/B]

Frankly, as a so-called "American citizen", I don't care about this question any more. Just tell me what I need to do to as-best-as-possible avoid the damage done by the people trying to "fix the economy". I and others like me will be off living within more self-sufficient communities, and ask that the fixers leave us alone! As the past few years have shown us, chasing the illusion of aggregate economic growth does not necessarily improve the lives of most and justifies all kinds of criminality under the tyranny of the majority. I wish EJ would stop trying to tell TPTB how to correct their policy mistakes and start telling us how to keep our wealth safe! Did I miss that advice? Policy pontification is a losing battle and assumes good intentions from those making the policies. My $0.02.

[cjppjc]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

Frankly, as a so-called "American citizen", I don't care about this question any more. Just tell me what I need to do to as-best-as-possible avoid the damage done by the people trying to "fix the economy". I and others like me will be off living within more self-sufficient communities, and ask that the fixers leave us alone! As the past few years have shown us, chasing the illusion of aggregate economic growth does not necessarily improve the lives of most and justifies all kinds of criminality under the tyranny of the majority. I wish EJ would stop trying to tell TPTB how to correct their policy mistakes and start telling us how to keep our wealth safe! Did I miss that advice? Policy pontification is a losing battle and assumes good intentions from those making the policies. My $0.02.

EJ has given much advice. Even more I'm sure in the paid area. If you haven't figured out what it is, you have not been paying attention. Once again I am sure Metalman can help here.

[jk]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

Frankly, as a so-called "American citizen", I don't care about this question any more. Just tell me what I need to do to as-best-as-possible avoid the damage done by the people trying to "fix the economy". I and others like me will be off living within more self-sufficient communities, and ask that the fixers leave us alone! As the past few years have shown us, chasing the illusion of aggregate economic growth does not necessarily improve the lives of most and justifies all kinds of criminality under the tyranny of the majority. I wish EJ would stop trying to tell TPTB how to correct their policy mistakes and start telling us how to keep our wealth safe! Did I miss that advice? Policy pontification is a losing battle and assumes good intentions from those making the policies. My $0.02.

itulip is not, imo, a give-a-man-a-fish site. it's a teach-a-man-to-fish site. there is a lot advice flying around in these pages. think it over and do what you think is best. but in the meantime, there are millions of our countrymen enduring hard times. over 1 in 7 americans is now on foodstamps. it can't hurt to have some discussion of policy, if only to shed light on the disasters being perpetrated upon us by the powers that be.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The Big Bet revisited - Part I: Turkeys grounded - Eric Janszen

itulip is not, imo, a give-a-man-a-fish site. it's a teach-a-man-to-fish site. there is a lot advice flying around in these pages. think it over and do what you think is best. but in the meantime, there are millions of our countrymen enduring hard times. over 1 in 7 americans is now on foodstamps. it can't hurt to have some discussion of policy, if only to shed light on the disasters being perpetrated upon us by the powers that be.

Yup. As I follow and participate in the policy discussions I think about it deeply, giving me a basis for my decisions as I watch policies go better or worse towards my financial situation.