The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

[jk]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

i assume that NEITHER of these measures accounts for discouraged workers who have exceeded their 99 [or fewer] weeks of unemployment compensation and have given up on finding work. is that correct?

[jiimbergin]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

They will cause the US to enter a new recession before the output gap created by the last recession closes. The Great Recession will then become a kind of Great Depression II with many of the social stresses and political change that implies.

But The Great Depression didn't cause WWII. It was a catalyst for war.

Several of you have pointed out that the political antecedents for WWII do not exist today. I agree. However, I don't expect a repeat of WWII. I expect a completely different kind of war, just as WWII was a new kind of war.

The antecedent this time is oil supply scarcity. The catalyst will be The Great Depression II and a 20% to 40% decline in US living standards.

There are two dozen factors that will give the great war its unique qualities but consider one in particular that did not exist during WWII: image driven electronic media.

Image driven electronic media is the most efficient machine of mass belief shaping in human history. It will be used by the state to erase old beliefs and create new ones in a matter of days if not hours.

The Chinese system of mass belief formation already in place erased all awareness of the Tienanmen Square massacre. It will be deployed to help China's leadership externalize China's future economic crisis. China's leadership will blame the US for its crisis once its state finance capital based prosperity ends.

Anyone who thinks that China and the US cannot engage in warfare, consider the instances when China and the US recently engaged militarily. Arms and tactics will be unconventional at the outset and confrontations will evolve in unexpected ways.

To sum up my argument: Leadership that is stupid and short sighted enough to let the tech bubble run to its disastrous conclusion, stupid and short sighted enough to let the housing bubble develop to bale the economy out of the tech bubble crash, and then let the housing bubble run to its disastrous conclusion, stupid and short sighted enough to try to restart the FIRE Economy and drive the economy toward a mid-gap recession, at which point a new round of layoffs pushes unemployment to 12% and higher and crushes consumer spending -- such leadership is stupid and short sighted enough to finish the course, to lead the US into wars it cannot win.

I wish I did not agree with your assessment, but I do. Hopefully we are both wrong.

[EJ]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

...a US-China war being one which both will lose.

But why is that an argument that it will not happen?

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

I've never been terrified after visiting iTulip until reading the above today. It's frightening to think we're going to have an additional 1.6 billion people believing that the USA is responsible for their misery.

So far, I've not seen China portray the US as the bad guy, but let's take the example of the Spratly, China has been conducting news and TV propaganda internally to drum in the belief that China discovered the Spratly 2000 years ago.

In fact, a 40 episode "historical" TV epic was made to enforce that belief. I knew because I watched that serial in which the famed explorer Cheng Ho discovered China artifacts that were 2000 years old on south islands in the South China sea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He_Xia_Xiyang

As scary as it sounds, I believe that much of the world will be safe as I believe that New World Order wars will be fought via proxies, and unless you are at the age to qualify for a draft, you have nothing to fear.

The most dangerous place will be Israel, which is ironic because this is the motherland of the people controlling Wall Street and the US government and their policies have facilitated the rise of the Tripartite Germany, Russia and China.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Having gotten to this new thread very late due to a mother board failure; and now only just assimilated the entire content, I will come back again with more detail. But my take is quite different. As some already know, I believe that the driver for the immediate future will be rising sea levels, rather than oil, as the potential instigator of instability.

Please, let me dwell on for a while.

One other thought; EJ, some of your very best writing here; some passages stand out and will be quoted again and again.

[gnk]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Originally Posted by c1ue
...a US-China war being one which both will lose.

But why is that an argument that it will not happen?

It's all relative. Wars always have a victor, even King Pyrrhus of Epirus "won."

Pyrrhic Victory:

"The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one more such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war."

—Plutarch

SOURCE

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The most dangerous place will be Israel, which is ironic because this is the motherland of the people controlling Wall Street and the US government and their policies have facilitated the rise of the Tripartite Germany, Russia and China.

Oh touchring, don't tell me you're a believer in Zionist conspiracies.....

[jiimbergin]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Oh touchring, don't tell me you're a believer in Zionist conspiracies.....

+1

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Oh touchring, don't tell me you're a believer in Zionist conspiracies.....

I'm pointing out how the current trend will eventually lead to disaster in the Middle East. To put it bluntly, the reason why Israel exists is because of American power. So who has the most to lose if American power wanes? Not Americans because America is protected by the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, and there's plenty of food anyway, no need to starve.

A balance of power is good for everyone, even for the rising power. World wars occur because some country rises too quickly and becomes big headed. In WWII, it was Japan that started the war in 1937. The Japanese people were sold on the idea that Japan had the moral objective to civilize then backward China, and to chase the white men out of South East Asia. Germany followed in 1939.

To put things in perspective, the Japanese economy was only a tenth of the US just before Pearl Harbor, but because Japan rose so quickly, they were over confident, and believed they could achieve anything. Sounds familiar?

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Not arguing with (most) of your response. What I had issue with is your statement that the Jews control Wall Street and the US Government. Certainly there *are* Jews in Wall Street, the Government, and my local barbershop. I could likely just as easily come up with a list of Russians, Germans, Irish or red-heads.

Personally, the League of Red-Headed Conspirators has my vote.....

So far as Japan was concerned, Yamamoto had no illusions: "I shall run wild considerably for the first six months or a year but I have utterly no confidence for the second and third years." That didn't stop Tojo though. Thinking on how both sides really blundered into war, I have to give EJ's latest commentary more thought. What he claims is to come is *exactly* how the Pacific war came to be last time.

Of course, history never repeats -- but it often rhymes.....

[quigleydoor]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

In this case the Mean Duration of Unemployment is interesting because it has never been higher and is still rising. . . .

I find the mean duration of unemployment data interesting because it shows that a large increase in the number of long-term unemployed outliers and fewer short-term unemployed is responsible for the difference between the steady high level of the median and the still rising level of the average.

Very nifty. I see now that the relationship between mean and median tells a lot about the population, especially when we know that individuals in the population all increase in their duration, at the same rate, until they exit the population. Thanks for shedding light on your method.

[bart]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

...

Personally, the League of Red-Headed Conspirators has my vote.....

...

The Tin Foil Hat enabled shall rule, as they always do... alien invaders όber alles...

[EJ]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

i assume that NEITHER of these measures accounts for discouraged workers who have exceeded their 99 [or fewer] weeks of unemployment compensation and have given up on finding work. is that correct?

That is correct. If you stay unemployed long enough, you're not unemployed anymore and don't show up in either the mean or the median rates.

[labasta]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Why not just cancel the debt instead? No inflation + debt canceled. Problem solved!

Unfortunately, our present rulers are our creditors so that it isn't going to happen. In fact, I'm glad that this crisis has happened as it has shown the whole world who really pulls the strings and governs things and it ain't the politicians.

I agree with the premise of this article. It's obvious what the real solution is to anyone who thinks.

However I disagree with a few conclusions at the end to do with the world wars. I would postulate that it was the mounted machine gun that killed millions of men in the first world war. It was actually oil that gave them protected from it in the form of a tank. A LOT more men died in WWI than WWII.

Also, Germany's problem wasn't a lack of oil, but a lack of manpower as to the reason it lost. It bet on superior technology over manpower to the Russians and lost. Once it had lost all its men on the Eastern front the war was technically over.

I'm not 100% convinced on a future WWIII as I was before. One of the main reasons is that very few civilians can be brainwashed by propaganda to kill anyone in cold blood anymore (at least not in Europe). The internet has put paid to that.

If there is to be conflict it will be internally and it will be between the citizens versus the government, not between countries. For the first time I actually see a possibility of the US breaking up into states. Europe will most definitely have "marriage" issues. I am glad as I see who our real owners are and I don't like them and I don't (and never have) liked the debt system. Good riddance. We are going to see local societies make their own rules between themselves sans government... for better or worse...

[ST]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

That is correct. If you stay unemployed long enough, you're not unemployed anymore and don't show up in either the mean or the median rates.

does that mean that when we see the mainstream unemployment statistic touted - its not actually clear whether unemployment went up or down because more people (99ers) could have just fallen off the count?

The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment and Characteristics of Workers Unemployed for More than 99 Weeks
Gerald Mayer
Analyst in Labor Policy
December 20, 2010