The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

EJ has actually moved about to where I have been, but it still is a surprise that he has. EJ gets to talk to a lot of influential people that any of us. I have to believe that these talks have been part of the reason he has moved to 3 on the doomer scale.

That's an excellent question, I too would be interested in hearing from EJ whether this particular view is being espoused in the halls of power.

That would put an accelerated spin on things.....

[bpr]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

That's an excellent question, I too would be interested in hearing from EJ whether this particular view is being espoused in the halls of power.

That would put an accelerated spin on things.....

It would surprise me if these views weren't being offered by those in power. Such confidential whispers are required for them to maintain a sense of purpose as World Leaders, and justification for their existence. I'm not implying that they are not willing to walk the walk or that they are insincere, but only that a certain sense of doomer-like destiny is a job requirement at this time.

If there were a job description for US Senator you could scratch out "determined self-starter" and insert "paranoid egomaniac."

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The advent of nuclear weapons, and the technical inadequacy of defenses against nuclear weapons, make sovereignty-ending wars between the great powers very unlikely.

I agree, but there is nothing to stop nuclear armed nations from engaging in an economic and cyberwar. If you consider what happened to Google, cyberwar has already started.

[Polish_Silver]

How can banks take the hit? --It's not thier money!

We need a private sector debt cut, not a tax cut.

How can banks take the hit?

If mortgages are reduced, banks will go bank-rupt. So shareholders and bondholders are wiped out. (crocodile tears). But then the FDIC and fed will have to make the checking & savings accounts good anyway. So the "middle class" will lose anyway, just by having to print money or bailout FDIC.

Since Banks work with a high degree of leverage, they have no capital to lose, which makes them such a threat to public good. They are trading with other peoples money, which is why they cannot take the losses.

PS

[jk]

Re: How can banks take the hit? --It's not thier money!

How can banks take the hit?

If mortgages are reduced, banks will go bank-rupt. So shareholders and bondholders are wiped out. (crocodile tears). But then the FDIC and fed will have to make the checking & savings accounts good anyway. So the "middle class" will lose anyway, just by having to print money or bailout FDIC.

Since Banks work with a high degree of leverage, they have no capital to lose, which makes them such a threat to public good. They are trading with other peoples money, which is why they cannot take the losses.

PS

the scandanavian countries had a banking crisis in the '90s. they wiped out the shareholders, gave a stiff haircut to the bondholders, nationalized the banks to protect the savers, and then re-privatized them. i'd rather the gov't held and then sold bank shares in return for its compelled infusion of funds, than they put in the money to protect the current [mis]-mangement, who then proceed to give themselves ever-bigger bonuses.

[Slimprofits]

Re: How can banks take the hit? --It's not thier money!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/bu...s/23krona.html

Scandinavian banks ^

[jk]

Re: How can banks take the hit? --It's not thier money!

this coming week's cover

[LazyBoy]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

After completing this analysis, I warn the more optimistic among you that I am moving closer to a 3 on the scale.

From where I sit, I see the machine of global political economy churning its way inexorably toward a third world war, its institutions of diplomacy mired in cold war era thinking.

So what is going to happen? more... ($ubscription)

Ok, you got me. I'll subscribe.

[jk]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

the beginning of the barron's piece:

Even the most casual observer seems to know that China's economy has been growing at a roughly 10% annual rate for much of the past decade. Less recognized and arguably more important to the state of the world is the fact that China's defense spending rose even faster than that -- 12% or more a year between 2000 and 2009.

"The accelerating pace of China's defense budget increases is driving countries in the region, as well as the U.S., to react to preserve a balance of power and stability," says Jacqueline Newmyer, head of Long-Term Strategy Group, a Cambridge, Mass.-based defense consultant. "There is a real potential for arms races to emerge," she adds. "While once we assumed we'd have access to areas to conduct anti-terrorism or anti-insurgency operations, now we're compelled to think about preserving our ability to gain access to East Asia."

interestingly., the article then raises the question as to whether to invest in companies like lockheed martin, or "Chinese companies such as Xi'an Aero-Engine (600893.China) and China Shipbuilding Industrial (601989.China) ...." and, later, "The arms race could produce a mini-boom in Chinese equity offerings. At present, most of the biggest defense contractors are unlisted state-owned companies, but China wants to take them public."

as i said in 11-10, http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...d-war-solution part of the cold war "solution" for china is that it promotes moving up the technology ladder. as the barron's article says, '"Taking companies public "is a clear strategic priority" that also "promotes development of a dual-use economy" that serves military and civilian needs, says Cheung. Already, there are scores of dual-use firms listed just the way Boeing (BA) is in the U.S. '

other tidbits: "Japanese self-defense forces "are clearly reoriented to China as opposed to Russia," says Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation. Japan plans to add submarines and warships." "India is holding a competition for a supplier of 126 mid-range combat aircraft, its biggest defense deal. The short list includes the Eurofighter Typhoon, made by European Aeronautic Defence & Space (EAD.France); Alenia Aeronautica, a unit of Finmeccanica (FNC.Italy), and BAE Systems (BA.UK). Also contending is the Dassault Rafale, made by Dassault Aviation (AM.France). The fighters will be manufactured with the country's Hindustan Aeronautics, the state-owned defense contractor that plans to go public this year. India also plans a three-carrier fleet." and "Australia is having its largest military expansion since World War II, spending $275 billion over the next 20 years for submarines, frigates, destroyers and the F-35 joint strike fighter. Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam all plan to buy submarines" and, most notably, "OF COURSE, THE U.S. must respond as well." of course.

and "Expect to hear the term "AirSea Battle" more often. It's a concept promoted by the independent think tank Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments. This strategy would integrate U.S. air and naval forces to defeat enemies with sophisticated abilities to deny them access. The idea would be to develop ways to blind satellites and defend against or attack with long-range strikes. It's a defense against both China and Iran.

"This will shift demand from counterinsurgency warfare toward more traditional systems like long-range strike aircraft and missiles, high-end naval forces and robust space and cyber capabilities," says Jeffrey Roncka, managing partner at defense consultant Renaissance Strategic Advisors."

[flintlock]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Like a punch in the gut I read this. I've always been around a 3 on the doomer scale. But I didn't expect EJ to come around so soon. Makes me think things are worse than I thought.

I have to agree with EJ about how wars don't start out with the intention of getting so bad. WWI started out over a relatively minor regional ethnic struggle. With notes between cousins ( Wilhelm of Germany and Nicholas of Russia) attempting to settle the matter. It just snow balled from there.

There are actually some good comparisons from then with now. The world was becoming more militarized. Imperialism was on the rise. Historically minimized ethnic groups were beginning to flex their muscle and demand better treatment. How do we difuse this? I agree with what someone else said about global corporations to some degree mitigating the nationalism of the past. But to what degree?

[raja]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The way we're headed that someone will be, as usual, the most politically vulnerable, those with the weakest political and intellectual defenses, and the loss will be taken in the form of lost purchasing power, as has been my position here since starting iTulip in 1998.

Creditors will be paid back in devalued dollars . . . if they are paid back at all. Who's that going to hurt?

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Like a punch in the gut I read this. I've always been around a 3 on the doomer scale. But I didn't expect EJ to come around so soon. Makes me think things are worse than I thought.

Such low expectations!

I think it can traced to three articles by EJ. His first one about the 2008 election, in which he pointed out every candidate but two (Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich) were FIREmen.....A short time later, he shocked the world and 'endorsed' Obama....And when Scott Brown won in January 2010 he thought that it was a sign of a political awakening. Here we are some 16 months later and how can you come to any other conclusion than that we're fucked?

[cobben]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Barron's intentional misnomer "The Dragon Kingdom" is symptomatic of warmongering anglosaxons.

Perhaps the Chinese themselves would prefer "The Shire" if any anglification is truly necessary?

the common name remained as Zhōngguó (simplified Chinese: 中国; traditional Chinese: 中國, Mandarin pronunciation: [tʂʊ́ŋkwɔ̌]) through dynastic changes. This translates traditionally as "the central Kingdom", or as "the middle country".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China

addendum:

Sorry, I forgot, "The Shire" has been established as being in Chechnya.

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

There are too many people on earth, a cold war won't solve the resource shortage problems. This is really a war over resources.

[jk]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

There are too many people on earth, a cold war won't solve the resource shortage problems. This is really a war over resources.

cold war shadow boxing along with hot proxy and peripheral wars are a likely means for allocating those scarce resources. that does not solve the long-term problem of limited resources, agreed. otoh, it gives time for, first, strong resource conservation measures to stretch out the adjustment, and second the development of alternative sources of energy, and alternative goods.