Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

[charliebrown]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

ZIRP exactly. if you're in mm, t's etc, you can watch your money get nicked on a daily basis due to rising costs.

If mm were paying 4-5%, I probably would have liquidated the entire postion, and I would also have pared down my oil holdings. I just threw 27 out their because its roughly the 200MDA. Looking at a multi-year chart, and long average 20 looks about right. However, things generally do not go straight up and straight down forever. Hoping for a reversal here so I get called out.

[charliebrown]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

by the way for us short term speculators, if you have any slv, pslv etc, you may want to consider a move to CEF.
people are scared out of it because it has silver??? It is down nearly as much as SLV, and PSLV. yet it is only 54% silver.
So you would be selling silver to buy gold at a discount. If you have paper gold, you could sell that to keep your gold/silver
ratio the same.

[c1ue]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Random chart thoughts... ;-)

A reprise of the '70s seems to imply a short term bottom of 33, and a longer term bottom (1 year) of 29.

It also seems to imply that 49.5 is the peak for the next 3 years or more...

[bart]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

A reprise of the '70s seems to imply a short term bottom of 33, and a longer term bottom (1 year) of 29.

It also seems to imply that 49.5 is the peak for the next 3 years or more...

Thoughts like that have crossed my mind, but "internet and new millennium years" are shorter... and I continue to dither about my large economy sized PM shorts.

Thought for the day:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/eat_short.mp3 ;-)

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

You're still glossing over the fact that EJ did not call the year long rally after the low on March 2009 - something which I believe EJ has said was a missed opportunity.

Again, this doesn't detract from the body of excellence which already exists, but equally detracts from the image of infallibility you are portraying.

Equally EJ has clearly stated that he did not believe the US government would blow another bubble after the collapse of the Y2K Internet stock bubble, which wound up being wrong as evidenced by the real estate bubble of 2003-2006.

In both cases, my respect for EJ and grown because of the willingness to admit fallibility and to examine the reasons for the missed opportunity.

Boosterism in contrast is of far less benefit.

ej made an uncharacteristically harsh comment on apr 21 in ask ej in reaction to members who were arguing with him... 'Buy silver at $50 and enjoy your pump-and-dump asshanding by JP Morgan'

[mesyn191]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

You're still glossing over the fact that EJ did not call the year long rally after the low on March 2009 - something which I believe EJ has said was a missed opportunity.

Again, this doesn't detract from the body of excellence which already exists, but equally detracts from the image of infallibility you are portraying.

Equally EJ has clearly stated that he did not believe the US government would blow another bubble after the collapse of the Y2K Internet stock bubble, which wound up being wrong as evidenced by the real estate bubble of 2003-2006.

In both cases, my respect for EJ and grown because of the willingness to admit fallibility and to examine the reasons for the missed opportunity.

Boosterism in contrast is of far less benefit.

QFT.

EJ does a really good job and is one of the very few people who actually seem to have a pretty good idea of what is going on and is willing to tell people what he is doing and why. He isn't perfect though and it is unreasonable to expect him to be.

[mesyn191]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

What is your take away from this chart? That the old gold/silver price ratio that gets quoted from time to time will hold up in the future?

[metalman]

Re: damage report

today: silver off 25% from top & 23% from ej's call.

today: silver off 31% from top & 29% from ej's call.

[Kadriana]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

There is a video mentioning EJ on Max Keiser's website.

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/05/silv...when/#comments

[c1ue]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

ej made an uncharacteristically harsh comment on apr 21 in ask ej in reaction to members who were arguing with him... 'Buy silver at $50 and enjoy your pump-and-dump asshanding by JP Morgan'

That may be, but you'll note that I was not one of them.

I haven't been on this silver bandwagon, nor have I been dissing the silver run.

[FrankL]

Re: 1921 silver before and after

When EJ was doing his research in early April before making his final decision on April 29, one of the sources he referenced was eBay. Here is a screen shot of a 1921 Morgan dollar for sale on eBay on April 20.

Here is a screen shot of a similar coin for sale on eBay, in better condition, today.

Meanwhile, the dealer buy price has fallen from 37 times faces to 20 times face.

if you want to use Ebay as support for one's arguments, be sure to at least use the settling price. Most price action happens in the last 30 seconds of trading on Ebay...

[flintlock]

Re: 1921 silver before and after

if you want to use Ebay as support for one's arguments, be sure to at least use the settling price. Most price action happens in the last 30 seconds of trading on Ebay...

I was going to say the same thing. 3 minutes to go in Ebay terms is an eternity!

[flintlock]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

What happens to silver after the "asshanding"?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

What happens to silver after the "asshanding"?

Well, Bart says he sees it eventually at a minimum of 130, and even EJ says 100-180. If it gets to 20 as EJ says then buying at 20 will allow you to sell at 5X while gold going from 1500 to 5000 only sees a 3.33X, so for the more brave of us we should back up the truck at 20, or even 25

[Kadriana]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Well, Bart says he sees it eventually at a minimum of 130, and even EJ says 100-180. If it gets to 20 as EJ says then buying at 20 will allow you to sell at 5X while gold going from 1500 to 5000 only sees a 3.33X, so for the more brave of us we should back up the truck at 20, or even 25

The only problem is last time silver made it's lows in 2008, it was hard to get a hold of physical. There are a lot of people that are waiting to back up the truck. If people see the slightest hint of a shortage, I think they're all going to run for it. Apmex's SE's supply is already looking a bit sad.