Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

[Adeptus]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I'm offended Metalman! No reference to me? hehe

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I'm offended Metalman! No reference to me? hehe

got a pm from mr fred... told me to clean up my act & be nicer to members... all on the same team & all that. ok.

gold dumps 8.5% in the past 3 days... & silver dumps 25%

my read of turk's chart is silver's headed below even ej's $25 target...

[jimmygu3]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

my read of turk's chart is gold's headed below even ej's $25 target...

You meant to say, "silver's headed below even ej's $25 target...."

The limit sell order on my ZSL shares just popped, netting me a 42% profit over 2 months. It was a bumpy ride, but EJ was right! I have had mixed results taking action based on his short-term calls, but this one nailed it. I may have left a little fat on the bone, but a 500% annualized return on this trade was enough for me. THANKS, EJ!

-Jimmy

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

You meant to say, "silver's headed below even ej's $25 target...."

The limit sell order on my ZSL shares just popped, netting me a 42% profit over 2 months. It was a bumpy ride, but EJ was right! I have had mixed results taking action based on his short-term calls, but this one nailed it. I may have left a little fat on the bone, but a 500% annualized return on this trade was enough for me. THANKS, EJ!

-Jimmy

he promised he'd get better at the short term calls...

[charliebrown]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

same here, thanks EJ, in August I lowered my paper silve holdings again, I bought paper gold with them.
I am stuck owning a 33 oct put on slv. Hoping for a little bounce here. If it expires unexercised, I will thank the market gods.

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

i'd like to see an update to this chart...

[sunpearl71]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I also executed a small limit sell order earlier today when ZSL popped briefly over $20, for a 40% profit over 2 months. Will re-enter silver when it falls into the mid to low 20s. Thanks EJ!

[FRED]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

i'd like to see an update to this chart...

As you wish.

[jpetr48]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Fred

Thank you for the forecast out to 2013.
Any idea what happens afterwards -out to 2016? Some of us have a longer term horizon.
Joe

[mikedev10]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

i have to throw a big thanks to EJ here too. rough ride and went a bit risky (i'm 32 and single though) - bought a bunch of SLV puts in my roth ira. being not so disciplined i've held off taking profits just yet - bought 5 positions, the only one i've covered is the october puts. the 3 in january and 1 in april are way up, looking to see what silver does monday and sell half or more then.

[Camtender]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I guess when your Jim Rogers or Eric Sprott, there are plenty of haters....... by the way, where is the Rogers interview?????????

So Metal Man, has there been any fundamental change in the Western World that would indicate there is political will to stop printing money (i.e. the fundamental basis for owning silver)? All bubbles have periods of consolidation, nothing goes up in a straight line.

I suspect that most of us are not traders, but long term investors. We will see at the end of the day where silver is at, because, as Jimmy always says......... every thing always makes a new high...........

[c1ue]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I guess when your Jim Rogers or Eric Sprott, there are plenty of haters....... by the way, where is the Rogers interview?????????

So Metal Man, has there been any fundamental change in the Western World that would indicate there is political will to stop printing money (i.e. the fundamental basis for owning silver)? All bubbles have periods of consolidation, nothing goes up in a straight line.

I suspect that most of us are not traders, but long term investors. We will see at the end of the day where silver is at, because, as Jimmy always says......... every thing always makes a new high...........

The point isn't that currencies are being depreciated (iTulip view, as compared to being devalued...I guess the difference is time scale), it is that simply because this depreciation occurs doesn't mean any PM is automatically a good investment at any price.

The second point is that there are plenty of people out there who are happy to take a point which is true (currency depreciation) and use it to line their own pockets by selling against this point irregardless of any other factors.

It isn't clear to me that Sprott and Rogers are in this category, but certainly they're both salesmen.

If we look at the real estate bubble - again it isn't that real estate was a bad investment historically. Previous to 2006, real estate was a sure fire way to make slow and steady investment growth. While there were some who recognized the fundamentals of this real estate appreciation, there were plenty more who only wanted to use this to pull money out of people's pockets: Kiyosaki and Trump come to mind. There were also those who were cheerleaders without regard to the consumer's ultimate interests: the NAR comes to mind.

Now that we've been in a gold price upswing for over a decade, the sharpers and the cheerleaders for gold have multiplied considerably.

Ditto silver despite (or perhaps because of) its much higher volatility.

Lastly as far as new highs: when will we see the new Nasdaq high? How about the Dow Jones Industrials?

Theoretically these will happen someday, but as the Great Depression shows, it might be well after a full generation has passed (i.e. you're dead).

[Camtender]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

The point isn't that currencies are being depreciated (iTulip view, as compared to being devalued...I guess the difference is time scale), it is that simply because this depreciation occurs doesn't mean any PM is automatically a good investment at any price.

The second point is that there are plenty of people out there who are happy to take a point which is true (currency depreciation) and use it to line their own pockets by selling against this point irregardless of any other factors.

It isn't clear to me that Sprott and Rogers are in this category, but certainly they're both salesmen.

If we look at the real estate bubble - again it isn't that real estate was a bad investment historically. Previous to 2006, real estate was a sure fire way to make slow and steady investment growth. While there were some who recognized the fundamentals of this real estate appreciation, there were plenty more who only wanted to use this to pull money out of people's pockets: Kiyosaki and Trump come to mind. There were also those who were cheerleaders without regard to the consumer's ultimate interests: the NAR comes to mind.

Now that we've been in a gold price upswing for over a decade, the sharpers and the cheerleaders for gold have multiplied considerably.

Ditto silver despite (or perhaps because of) its much higher volatility.

Lastly as far as new highs: when will we see the new Nasdaq high? How about the Dow Jones Industrials?

Theoretically these will happen someday, but as the Great Depression shows, it might be well after a full generation has passed (i.e. you're dead).

I suspect that when QE4/QE5 is announced, you will get your new NASDAQ & DOW high. Unless you have less than 18 months to live, you might just see it.

Jim Rogers a salesmen, how many of us could actually purchase into one of his funds. List time I check, if I remember correctly, it was six figures to get in.

I will take the 4,000 plus years of silver being a store of value to someone who "long term investing" mind goes back to the NASDAQ bubble.

And finally, it really does not matter what I, you, Rogers, Sprott & or anyone else in the US thinks about PM's. What matter is what the creditors of the largest debtor nation in the wold thinks. Have you been to China in the last six months or spoke to anyone from India and asked them about your silver thoughts? I will take the opinion of several billion creditors to the thoughts of three hundred million people that have lived way beyond their means for decades.

A society cannot consume more that it produces over the long term (the "long-term" has been extended in the US due to $$$ reserve status).

[FRED]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I suspect that when QE4/QE5 is announced, you will get your new NASDAQ & DOW high. Unless you have less than 18 months to live, you might just see it.

Jim Rogers a salesmen, how many of us could actually purchase into one of his funds. List time I check, if I remember correctly, it was six figures to get in.

I will take the 4,000 plus years of silver being a store of value to someone who "long term investing" mind goes back to the NASDAQ bubble.

And finally, it really does not matter what I, you, Rogers, Sprott & or anyone else in the US thinks about PM's. What matter is what the creditors of the largest debtor nation in the wold thinks. Have you been to China in the last six months or spoke to anyone from India and asked them about your silver thoughts? I will take the opinion of several billion creditors to the thoughts of three hundred million people that have lived way beyond their means for decades.

A society cannot consume more that it produces over the long term (the "long-term" has been extended in the US due to $$$ reserve status).

Today's update of our April 29, 2011 silver price forecast chart:

[Adeptus]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Today's update of our April 29, 2011 silver price forecast chart:

FRED, any chance you can explain which variables are considered when you generate these silver charts? I ask because, at this time, the governments/IMF/CME/Central Banks (etc) intervention in markets is so dramatic, that I'm left wondering how can anybody predict anything accuratly and *be right for the right reasons*?

For instance:

1) How does your model account for CME margin hikes (that by the way, happened again over the weekend in the Shanghai exchange) that have an immediate downside effect on PM prices (gold included it seems).
2) How does your model account for mass influential events such as the European crisis, when iTulip has written very little about it? Although you have written about the China and USA ones.
3) How do you account for influential events such as mini black swans? Or large market-wide black-swans for that matter.

Perhaps iTulip looks at these events as symptoms of larger influencial trends, rather than variables to attempt to include in calculations? If so, can you then share which influencing factors/variables you do include? You can of course, claim it as *iTulip Secret Sauce* and I would respect that, but if you can share parts of it, I (and others) would appreciate it. I have no time personnaly to try to figure out competing models, so my intent here is just to understand how iTulip understands the silver market so I can make a decision as to what degree I should consider your silver forcasting. I have a lot of respect for iTulip's forcasting capabilities in nearly every other area, in part because you guys write a mini-book thesis on how you arrived at your conclusions. For silver however, I'm not yet convinced of your projection capabilities. Being right once, isn't good enough for me. Especially when there are few details explaining your projecting thesis.

For instance, in your article in this thread you give 5 reasons: (paraphrased)

1) Gold/Silver ratio
2) Silver in a temporary bubble due to accelerate in price exceeding that of gold
3) Too many poorly informed investors in silver. The stadium is packed, it was empty ~10 years ago.
4) High volatility implies a turning point either down or up. iTulip bets on down.
5) (Ommitted, not related to silver price projecting)


If all iTulip uses are just these 4 factors (it seems very doubtful to me, considering every other detailed and well thoughout article you guys write), then I have to call you on it. It strikes me as over simplistic to use in creating price projection charts that will remain accurate over a longer period of time.

Thanks in advance,
Adeptus