China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers - Eric Janszen

[jtabeb]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

+1 (Don't forget the best part, NO EJECTION SEAT!)

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

This is the nub of the matter in hand. What we have observed, over the last few decades, (this is not a sudden event, but instead, a VERY long term decline), is the general prosperity of the wider nation, in almost every Western nation, has been drawn down to the bare minimums. All of the prosperity has been drawn into the FIRE economy. We see this very clearly with the success of the likes of Walmart selling ever cheaper mostly Chinese manufactured general merchandise to the poor..... now including much of what we once described as the "Middle Class". But we once designed and manufactured all this general merchandise ourselves. Employing the wider population in the process and at much greater levels of prosperity for the wider nation.

To describe our only option is to produce military equipment is a complete failure to recognise the fallacy of the FIRE economy. We have right under our noses the potential to re-create that original prosperity by re-capitalising the grass roots of the Western nations. By setting them the challenge to undo all the ridiculous stupidities of the FIRE economy.

Turning to China; they have a vast, untapped internal market. But to address that untapped market, they have to also recognise the stupidity of the Western FIRE economic model. They have been drawn into enslaving their own population to produce ever cheaper merchandise for the likes of the Walmarts of the Western economy.

Both sides, BOTH sides; must change direction.

The answer is the improve the prosperity of the bottom 50% of the people. The greater the prosperity at the grass roots of society, the greater the capacity to buy their own production.... of EVERYTHING.... NOT just armaments.

It was this understanding, gained from being the bright useful inventor who was continuously refused investment that brought me to understand what is wrong... it is not militaristic endeavour that draws us down, it is a complete failure to see the need to capitalise a free nation to produce what THEY themselves need.

The only answer is to set about re-capitalising the bottom segments of each and every nation. Get everyone back into productive employment... by ANY means that is legal.

But to be able to do that all the Central Bankers will have to throw away the one thing they see as their reason for existence; to control the economy to keep wages down by adjusting interest rates. All they in fact achieved was to constantly drain away the vitality, the unseen prosperity of their respective peoples. It is the central bankers that have been drawn into feudalising their nations on behalf of the largest companies.

All we need is access to the capital to invest into new jobs. But they will be much more prosperous new jobs paying better wages. Today, wages here in the UK are insufficient to permit the lowest quartile of employees from living even a subsistence life, in the process requiring government to pay out enormous sums of borrowed money to pay then further monies in the form of welfare to permit them to survive.

This is utter stupidity. The utterly stupid unrecognised idiocy of the FIRE economic model.

All we need is access to prosperity in the form of available equity capital to permit us to create the jobs we need.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

+1 (Don't forget the best part, NO EJECTION SEAT!)

Are you permitted to tell us which you fly? With or without?

[raja]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

We also live in a world of inadequate supply. Peak: oil, food, clement weather, wealth.

I would think about how much money can be diverted into military spending without further impoverishing the people and driving them to greater heights of fury.

[goadam1]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

It feels like KA-poom has become focused on a disorderly unraveling of Chinese/us mad. It's seems like a valid scenario but one with many variables.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

It feels like KA-poom has become focused on a disorderly unraveling of Chinese/us mad. It's seems like a valid scenario but one with many variables.

That is certainly a very prescient statement; but, anyone who has experience of the process of job creation from scratch, (idea pre-startup), will be also able to confirm the process has almost infinite variables. If it can go wrong, it will go wrong.... but even then, having overcome all natural obstacles; we are faced with an economic system that is totally inadequate for the job in hand, the creation of a free nation of prosperous citizens.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

If anyone on the board has a good way to explain this to my wife I'm all ears.

The experiment shows the difference between static friction and dynamic friction. While the block is at rest, it has a strong static friction against the table. Thus, the force in the bungee can be quite high before
the block starts moving.
When the bungee tension becomes slightly greater than static friction, the block starts to move. Now the sliding/dynamic friction is much lower, so the brick quickly accelerates until striking the central banker.

[oddlots]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Thanks I thought that would be complicated enough to confuse her but she's going with "You are an idiot."

[oddlots]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

+1

Nicely put. The challenge is really enormous on both sides of the, largely, chinese-us equation.

One of the thoughts I had was that China should nationalise it's health service. One of the main reasons I've seen sighted for the high savings rate is future health costs. Freeing some of those savings to develop internal demand might be a good shock absorber, especially in the inevitable event of an asset-price crash.

On our side of the divide it's a less palatable menu. The thing that most depresses me about the situation is we seem to still be headed in the wrong direction at an accelerating pace. It's a system that is the exact opposite to what markets are meant to deliver (what's the opposite of a meritocracy?) I think monetary reform is a bridge too far. Far more doable to my view is a movement for state chartered banks in the mold of North Dakota's. Starve FIRE (they've basically already incinerated everyone's pensions anyway.) I really think these interests need to be frightened by the wrath of the people expressed through indictments and the construction of another form of banking in comparison with which they will be found wanting.

[Chris Coles]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Thanks I thought that would be complicated enough to confuse her but she's going with "You are an idiot."

If she wants to study the subject, Hysteresis, where movement lags behind the application of a force, (a very good example being a long propeller shaft on a boat with slightly tight bearings will have the engine running at a constant speed and the propeller stop starting stop starting at regular intervals), then this will be a great place to start. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis

[bill]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

putting aside how grim this all is, what do you think about "defense" stocks? if the only thing we can sell [besides commercial aircraft] is military equipment, and if we can predict a chinese nationalist/militarist build up, shouldn't we be investing in lockheed, et al?

and if what got the u.s out of the great depression, finally, was wwii, what about the benefits of a new [hopefully cold] war? if we live in a world of inadequate demand, what's better than military spending, which builds enormously expensive things which we hope never to use?

Who's flag did they burn?
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...10027#poststop

7011 is at an all time low!
That is if you purchased yen a few years ago.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO:7011

they are part of the core.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaibatsu


Now lets get to the excitement.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...1c034f3d0b759c

Japan, worried by China, may boost submarine fleet
(AP) – 10 hours ago
TOKYO (AP) — Japan may increase the size of its submarine fleet, officials said, as concerns rise that the expansion of the Chinese navy is tipping the regional balance of power.
The Defense Ministry said a bigger submarine fleet is under consideration, with a firm proposal likely to come as early as December. Officials who spoke to The Associated Press on Tuesday refused to give further details because the plan has not yet been formally tabled.
According to Japanese media reports, the number of submarines would be increased from 16 to 22 over the next four years, a substantial rise that could generate concern from neighboring China.
Though well outnumbered by the Chinese — who now have about 60 subs — the Japanese navy's submarine fleet is significantly augmented by U.S. subs deployed throughout the region. Japanese subs are generally believed to be better equipped than many of the Chinese vessels and are hard to detect.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T101024002067.htm

Oct. 25, 2010
Japan, U.S. to up talks on China threat / Rapid buildup of military main concern

Satoshi Ogawa / Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent
WASHINGTON--Japan and the United States will beef up strategic consultations to cope with China's rapid military buildup, especially the strengthening of its maritime might, according to Japanese and U.S. diplomatic sources.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/...7251287940846/

TOKYO, Oct. 24 (UPI) -- Japanese politicians are reportedly leaning toward easing the nation's ban on weapons exports, sources told a newspaper.
The Yomiuri Shimbun Sunday said a panel of the Democratic Party of Japan had concluded that allowing arms exports would both boost Japanese defense contractors

http://www.speroforum.com/site/artic...ry+cooperation

10-25-2010
Tokyo – India and Japan want to increase trade and develop closer strategic and military ties to counter Chinese military expansion. A number of agreements are expected to be announced at the end of a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterpart, Naoto Kan, today in Tokyo.
Singh is on an official visit to Japan until tomorrow accompanied by a large delegation that includes top government officials and Indian business leaders. For him, an India-Japan strategic and global partnership is “a factor of peace, prosperity and stability in Asia and the world.”

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-50097320100713

Tue Jul 13, 2010 11:01pm IST
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's largest business lobby called on Tuesday for restrictions on weapons exports to be eased to allow defence contractors to take part in international research and development projects and stay competitive.
The proposal by Nippon Keidanren comes as the government, facing an unpredictable North Korea and rising China, prepares the latest defence policy outline and mid-term defence equipment procurement plan for issue by the end of the year.
"As defence gear becomes sophisticated and development costs grow, more and more fighter jets and other equipment are being developed by international consortia," Nippon Keidanren said in its proposal released on Tuesday.
"But the three principles are prohibiting Japan from joining international joint development, putting the country in the state of technological isolation."
Japan in 1967 drew up "three principles" on arms exports, banning sales to countries with communist governments or that are involved in international conflicts or subject to United Nations sanctions.
But the rules eventually became almost a blanket ban on arms exports and on the development and production of weapons with countries other than the United States.
That prohibits the nation's defence industry from joining multinational projects such as Lockheed Martin-led(LMT.N) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and makes it difficult for Japanese defence contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries(7011.T) to drive down costs and keep up with cutting-edge arms technologies. (Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka, editing by Andrew Marshall)

[jtabeb]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

I've flown both, (I like having one, just in case)

KC-10A and T-6A, T-37B

[bill]

Re: China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers – Part I: Let us raise up then crash the economy, again - Eric Janszen

Gets more intense by the minute.
Here comes the think tank support report.

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2...apan-security/