The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

[jk]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

vinoveri, note that EJ call on the S&P were not in current dollars but in $ circa 2000.

I am too lazy to do the math now, but I feel we are at that level if not lower...

s&p is currently 1180, in 2000 dollars this is 921 using official cpi through the end of 2009. less if using shadowstats inflation, of course.

[vinoveri]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

vinoveri, note that EJ call on the S&P were not in current dollars but in $ circa 2000.

I am too lazy to do the math now, but I feel we are at that level if not lower...

Largo, not wanting to quibble too much on this (and thanks for the response by the way),I believe the call was for the market to be 20-25% lower than where it started the year (2010). If you're suggesting that he meant in terms of circa yr2000 $, then I suppose the fair calculation is to take the value of the market in those dollars at start and end of year and figure the difference. If you use the dollar index as a benchmark, the SPX looks flat for the year. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX:$USD

It is the case though that the market is down some ~15% when priced in gold.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/galler...4spx%3A%24gold

[metalman]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

I am disapointed to note that HV has indeed obtained a refund by FRED in one day.

If you read HV title you will note that it is now: "iTulip Ambassador" instead of the previous "iTulip Select Premium Member".

Hopefully, HV after a killing in PMs will dare to spend $200 fast depreciating bonars to join iTulip in a not so distant future...

peculiar timing... he'll miss out on the first webinar. if available at all to non-high net worth guys like me who can't get an account with a firm like this or bring any other value to even qualify to get in the door, how much for 1 webinar?

http://www.ipaa.org/meetings/index.php?mid=131

Non-Qualified Analyst Attendee Onsite
IPAA Members $1,095
Non-IPAA Member/Individual Investors** $1,595

[vinoveri]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

s&p is currently 1180, in 2000 dollars this is 921 using official cpi through the end of 2009. less if using shadowstats inflation, of course.

I'm not following this. What is the benchmark? Where is the decline during 2010? (still to come maybe?)

And S&P on Jan 1, 2010 was around 1120, so ytd it's up 5% in nominal terms. What's the CPI for this year, 1.5% or so? Maybe the shadowstats numbers will show the real decline better.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

peculiar timing... he'll miss out on the first webinar. if available at all to non-high net worth guys like me who can't get an account with a firm like this or bring any other value to even qualify to get in the door, how much for 1 webinar?

http://www.ipaa.org/meetings/index.php?mid=131

Non-Qualified Analyst Attendee Onsite
IPAA Members $1,095
Non-IPAA Member/Individual Investors** $1,595

Woa. Me thinks an excellent business venture is to start selling iTulip subscriptions for $547.99/yr to IPAA Members... just don't tell FRED tho.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

I'm not following this. What is the benchmark? Where is the decline during 2010? (still to come maybe?)

And S&P on Jan 1, 2010 was around 1120, so ytd it's up 5% in nominal terms. What's the CPI for this year, 1.5% or so? Maybe the shadowstats numbers will show the real decline better.

vinoveri; take the value of the S&P today (as I write $1,183) and using this calculator input the value "in 2010 has the same buying power as $XXX in 2000".

What you get is this: $933.13

[jneal3]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

If gold bolts to $1400 next week we'll have our answer.

Price of gold doesn't seem to want to wait for the weekend, probably because the answer's becoming obvious.

Are we being sold an inflationary policy? We shall see.

We shall see indeed:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...dC6SsBGU&pos=7

[raja]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

What I still don't agree on is why the inflation will necessarily be controlled at just the 100% above natural rates.

Nor do I see how the US political system and way of life will necessarily hold together as this inflationary process unfolds.

You have to factor in the source of the prediction.
Someone who bases their future on hoped-for successful entrepreneurial outcomes perhaps cannot foresee a future in which "the US political system and ways of life" does not "hold together". Or maybe that's what "we are dead meat" means?

I share your pessimism, c1ue.
I'd leave the US, but where to go?
Europe . . . they've got a great record of getting along
South or Central America . . . one step from the Wild West.
Asia . . . they, too, are tottering on the financial/political edge.

There's no where to hide . . . might as well stay in the US and tough it out down on the farm with the chickens

[Down Under]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

vinoveri, note that EJ call on the S&P were not in current dollars but in $ circa 2000.

Sorry Largo, but I think this is BS.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

Sorry Largo, but I think this is BS.

No need to be sorry Down Under.

Instead of speculating here, perhaps vinoveri (or someone with great Google-fu skills) can pull out the article in question so that we can review it again? It feels to me that this discussion is without context.

[FRED]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Oct. 9, 2010

We'll see how things go at the IMF meeting this weekend. The foreplay over the past few weeks was rough, but I suspect that our trade partners will ratchet up the threats if the US doesn't drop its unilateralist posture. We'll see more than currency swap deals among trade partners to avoid dollars in international trade. They'll escalate to the next level. If gold bolts to $1400 next week we'll have our answer.

Gold hit $1388 today. If it reaches $1400 tomorrow, then we know for certain that the US contingent will enter the next negotiations with a weak hand.

[LargoWinch]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Gold hit $1388 today. If it reaches $1400 tomorrow, then we know for certain that the US contingent will enter the next negotiations with a weak hand.

I would dare to say that gold hitting $1,388 this morning following the close at $1,347 on Friday Oct. 8 is plenty enough evidence...

[Fiat Currency]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I would dare to say that gold hitting $1,388 this morning following the close at $1,347 on Friday Oct. 8 is plenty enough evidence...

Even if it sits at $1,375 for the rest of the week ... it's already made its point !! ... after all it's only the middle of October.

[vinoveri]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

No need to be sorry Down Under.

Instead of speculating here, perhaps vinoveri (or someone with great Google-fu skills) can pull out the article in question so that we can review it again? It feels to me that this discussion is without context.

This may not be the one I remember, but is relevant to the topic at hand, including my question as to my liquidity cannot product tradable bubbles, and makes a prediction, albeit not a call. I had access to part II when I was a subscriber, but no longer.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...nszen?p=146070

quote below from part II I believe

"EJ: The DJIA may end the year off as much as 25%, down to between 7,500 and 8,000. This alternative approach to forecasting the DJIA produces an independent result that is consistent with our previous forecast of the S&P 500 off 15% to 20% in 2010 that was arrived at in a reversion to the mean analysis of inflation-adjusted price levels."

[LargoWinch]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

This may not be the one I remember, but is relevant to the topic at hand, including my question as to my liquidity cannot product tradable bubbles, and makes a prediction, albeit not a call. I had access to part II when I was a subscriber, but no longer.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...nszen?p=146070

quote below from part II I believe

"EJ: The DJIA may end the year off as much as 25%, down to between 7,500 and 8,000. This alternative approach to forecasting the DJIA produces an independent result that is consistent with our previous forecast of the S&P 500 off 15% to 20% in 2010 that was arrived at in a reversion to the mean analysis of inflation-adjusted price levels."

vinoveri, your quote is accurate (as per Part II).

I believe the confusion as per our previous discussion lies with the fact that two methods were used for forecasting: one in $real (reversion to mean inflation-adjusted) and another using the Dow matching the post-bubble Nikkei 225 in $nominal (used to generate the Dow 7,500-8,000 range).