The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Eric
How long?
How long until it becomes a run-a-way unstopable process?
What will China's reaction be?

Cheers
Mike

China will be busy building weapons and preparing for war to take back Asia.

[DToM67]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Lets not forget about the Spanish Empire of 1500-1600 (approx ?) - a very powerful Navy that once ruled the seas - the empire became addicted to silver from the 'New World". The 'printing press' for the Spanish Monarchs was the Silver found in the 'New World'. The Business of the Empire would come to a stand still when deliveries of Silver were interrupted by Pirates - encouraging Pirating became an important strategy for Spain's enemy England.
Massive global Military might has through out the ages required great wealth or a Printing Press. Neither strategy works forever......

the same how certain countries are encouraging terrorists to curb american influence. who are supporting Iran, the Talibans?

...The way a US version of such a crisis will happen... is that an external event occurs that triggers a recession. In the case of Argentina in 2000 that triggered the 2001 crisis it was technology bubble crash in the US, Argentina's largest creditor via the IMF, and the recession that followed. At the same time foreign lending dried up, the recession shrank GDP relative to already high debt levels, pushing the ratio past the threshold...

In our case, a crash in China that both takes away a source of lending to finance US government expenditure and leads to a new US recession might trigger a "Argentina Ka-Poom with US Characteristics." Another possibility that I go into in detail in The Postcatastrophe Economy: Rebuilding America and Avoiding the Next Bubble is a recession triggered by the next Peap Cheap Oil Cycle. The event will be preceded by a reversal of net capital inflows. If they reverse for two quarters in a row, we can expect a crash that makes 1987 look like a cocktail party. That's why we watch them through our contacts like a hawk. The quarterly data are reported too late to act on.

Reading all this is making me wary... Oil is our 'silver', and China's for that matter. Seems like any interruption in the regular flow of oil out of the gulf region could begin a SHTF event.

[vt]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

EJ, you said within the last few months that you foresaw a Dow as high as 11,000 then falling to as low as 7,000 to 8,000 by the end of 2010. Do you still see this range?

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Reading all this is making me wary... Oil is our 'silver', and China's for that matter. Seems like any interruption in the regular flow of oil out of the gulf region could begin a SHTF event.

Iran having the nuclear bomb will scare the shit out of the Gulf states not to sell oil to the Americans? If so, the day is very near.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

I can't see how that strategy would work.
Oil is higly fungible and the market network would redistribute the supplies for no net change.

[beachgirl]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Will someone define the "ka" and the "Poom" in simple terms i.e. prices going up or down ? Thanks

[touchring]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

I can't see how that strategy would work.
Oil is higly fungible and the market network would redistribute the supplies for no net change.

if that were the case, why iraq war?

[Chris Coles]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Will someone define the "ka" and the "Poom" in simple terms i.e. prices going up or down ? Thanks

Perhaps it will help if you think of the two as ka is the screech of the brakes and tyres as the vehicle tries to stop before it hits the brick wall; and the Poom is the "Crash - Bang" when it does.

[cjppjc]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

Will someone define the "ka" and the "Poom" in simple terms i.e. prices going up or down ? Thanks

First of all it seems to be Ka Ka Ka Poom. Still wainting impatiently for the Poom. Metal you want to take this?

[EJ]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

EJ, you said within the last few months that you foresaw a Dow as high as 11,000 then falling to as low as 7,000 to 8,000 by the end of 2010. Do you still see this range?

You are asking if I still think the second bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market will end before the end of the year. Last year I got the timing of the end of the first bounce wrong by four months. The second bounce is even less deterministic, especially considering it's an election year.

The answer is, I don't know, but I am convinced that the second bounce will end lower than the first, the third lower than the second, and so on until we, as a country, get our act together.

[anoop]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

"economic principle" is correct.
"principle plus interest" should be "principal plus interest".

In any case, thanks for the great work!

[Ben]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

EJ,

I'm very interested in hearing more about how a 'near miss' might go.

Thanks for the thread,

Ben

[Raz]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

if that were the case, why iraq war?

Because of incredible arrogance and hubris? Because "W" never read T.E. Lawrence, or anything else heavier than Reader's Digest?
Because it will pay for itself when Saddam is no longer a threat to Mideast oil supplies? Because "W" is a dumbass?

Take your pick. I choose all four, and there are probably more.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

You will hear about spending reductions and austerity as a campaign platform

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/09/2...o-reverse.html

WASHINGTON — Republicans in the House of Representatives Thursday plan to offer a detailed blueprint for how they’d dramatically change what they term an "arrogant and out of touch government of self-appointed elites” by pledging to repeal and replace the Obama health care law, continue all Bush-era tax cuts and significantly cut spending.

The agenda, scheduled to be unveiled by GOP leaders at a Virginia lumber and hardware store on Thursday, tries to give voters a clear, pointed choice in November. McClatchy obtained a copy Wednesday night.

The “new governing agenda” quickly draws a stark contrast with the Democrats who now control Congress and the White House.

“An unchecked executive, a compliant legislature and an overreaching judiciary have combined to thwart the will of the people and overturn their votes and their values,” the Republican document says, “striking down long-standing laws and institutions and scoring the deepest beliefs of the American people.

“An arrogant and out-of-touch government of self-appointed elites makes decisions, issues mandates, and enacts laws without accepting or requesting the input of the many,” it adds.

[metalman]

Re: The committee to destroy the USA - Eric Janszen

You are asking if I still think the second bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market will end before the end of the year. Last year I got the timing of the end of the first bounce wrong by four months. The second bounce is even less deterministic, especially considering it's an election year.

The answer is, I don't know, but I am convinced that the second bounce will end lower than the first, the third lower than the second, and so on until we, as a country, get our act together.

in other words... we're f*cked?