Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

If you could find a way (ANY way), to make these types of investments available in say $5K-$10K "chunks" I really think we could make some progress AND have a competitive product to offer MAINSTREET investors. I have no idea how you would do it, but if you made it possible for regular folks to buy in 5-$10K chunks at a time, man that would really be something.

I'll take 2 $10K chunks please (or 4 $5k ones). NO, I'm not selling gold, I'm selling some guns, that's different ;)

ADDED

Actually, the MORE I think about it, this could work pretty damn well, as long as you COMPLETELY EXCLUDE the TBTF banks or any other TARP recipient. What YOU COULD do is make this available to small investors in say the previously mentioned $5-10K chunks, This must be ACTUAL EQUITY mind you, not borrowed funds, and these small retail investors bail out of the broad indicies, the banks can step with with their TARP monies to keep the broad stock market afloat. (Mind you I would be SHOCKED, SHOCKED, I tell you, if you were to tell me that this has already been occuring).

I think you could get all the start up capital YOU NEED if you could make this available to mom and pop retail investors, AS LONG AS YOU EXCLUDE the TBTF and TARPs.

What's the market cap of mom and pop and pension retirement funds? Yeah, I know, it's risky and people would have to accept that risk. But Come ON! Between EJ and wallstreet, I would take EJ ANY day! (Even if it were much risker).

I'd rather honestly loose money to a man I trust, than be swindled out of my retirement savings by some wall street goon. (I advise a lot of people, weather they want the advice or not, I bet you could find a lot of retail investors who would find this attractive.) You have to be willing to accept RISK of FAILURE, but I think people are ready for a chance to take back some control over their own lives.


Hey, next time you have a policy advice discussion, Bring this up.

I think you have something much bigger (in a good way) than you realize.

Even if you had position limits so people didn't go all wacko and jump in with both feet (participation restrictions based on you net worth, for example), this would still fill two very important needs.

You Fund our Starving Startup's (esp Alt E please, for me, okay?)

AND

You offer an escape vehicle from FIRE for the masses.

Good job EJ, I just hope you think bigger in scale than you are now. This could be a really great win-win for retail investors, start-ups, and our national strategic interests.

Give it a go man, you'll have my word of mouth support (and I have a VERY loud mouth).

V/R

JT

[Bearster]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

How can one say "well regulated" in the same breath as discussing the monopoly that FIRE has established for itself? Regulation is always sold on the basis that it would "protect" the poor, ignorant, dumber-than-sh*it, irrational individual. But every bloody bit of it is designed to protect incumbents against competition. Back when the US was founded, there was one distinction made in law between who could or could not invest, sign a contract, etc.:

"Are you 18 or older?"

[Chris Coles]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Jtabeb, We can see you jumped out of the sack with a bee under your proverbial bonnet; but mean well for all that.

Your confusion is that the solution requires any effort to disturb the existing system; I completely disagree with that. IMHO all that is needed is a realisation that the answer lies in recognising the long term effectiveness of a local "Community". Another way of describing that would be your local "Tribe". It was only recently that I fully understood why primitive societies settle down into tribes. A tribe is surely a group that has a wide ranging understanding of what they believe the rules should be and how they should be applied. The result is you end up with a group of families of every age group and abilities all working together as a community. That such a group has an aiming point and an unspoken, unwritten general agreement, to work together to the betterment not of one or two individuals within the local community, but to the benefit of the whole community.

So why not define the iTulip community in the same way? And set out to create prosperity throughout the iTulip community to the betterment of all, each to their ability and input? Some with funding, others with intellect?

We do not need a nation, or the complexity of all the unwanted support mechanisms; we simply need to agree among ourselves and get on with it. BUT, with one proviso; this is not about America, because the iTulip community hails from all corners of the planet. So this is regardless of location; but is dependent upon a general acceptance for those within iTulip that wish to so set out upon such a new adventure.

So, why not?

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Why not, indeed.

Chris, here is a question that I have not "cracked the code" on yet. How do I take my PM holdings and turn that into a service that provides local capital?

A "bank" if you will, but a bank more like the Islamic finance model, where every investment is EQUITY based rather than DEBT based.

I see no problem with a "rental cost" of money, to me it's the same thing as renting a car or a ladder. You pay a fee and then return the good after you are done using it. So loans on rental terms are okay as I see it.

The problem with all this is I just don't see how I can compete with an entity that can create credit out of thin air. Plus, because there are govermental "intrusions" on market pricing, I would not be able to offer terms to anyone on any asset like property or facilities, only equipment (the only free market left).

It would be suicide to place "hard capital" at risk due to purposeful governemnt induced market pricing distortions.

So I can't start, but the local community can't wait.

So can you "Square that Circle" for me? I want to do, but don't know how to do while the financial system that we have continues to exist.

Bad (Credit) capital always drives good (Equity) capital into hiding because there is no actual "skin in the game" in the first case. Where is the risk if you can just be bailed out willy-nilly (depending on your connections and the political whims of those that are in power).

That's the paradox that I'm having a very hard time cracking. I would appreciate your thoughts.

I simply do not understand HOW alternatives can compete while the status quo recieves unlimited state sponsored life-support. They can make ANY mistake (or commit ANY CRIME) and keep operating (And EVEN KEEP collecting their million+ dollar bonuses). I make one mistake and I'm through. I can't compete with that (I'm good, I think, but not THAT good!).

[bill]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

How can one say "well regulated" in the same breath as discussing the monopoly that FIRE has established for itself? Regulation is always sold on the basis that it would "protect" the poor, ignorant, dumber-than-sh*it, irrational individual. But every bloody bit of it is designed to protect incumbents against competition. Back when the US was founded, there was one distinction made in law between who could or could not invest, sign a contract, etc.:

"Are you 18 or older?"

Details for your viewing.
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/20...ill+DAY+5.aspx

http://financialservices.house.gov/K...orm020210.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/bu...l?ref=business

Published: June 22, 2010

The day was largely devoted to the details of new consumer protections. Democrats agreed to place the new regulator inside the Federal Reserve, as the Senate had proposed, rather than creating a freestanding agency, which was the House proposal. The Fed would provide funding, but the regulator would have considerable autonomy and its head would be a presidential appointee.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

The problem with all this is I just don't see how I can compete with an entity that can create credit out of thin air.

The essential element of a healthy society is that most of its individuals have a future, a future worth working toward, a society in which it is worth improving their abilities and worth to themselves and those around them.

Debt in all its forms is an exchange of present value with future value. Too much debt creates "debt slavery", destroying people's futures as surely as other forms of slavery, tyranny and abject poverty.

The nature of the debt or of the lender or of the means of creating the lent value are all secondary. If the lent value can be created all too easily for essentially zero cost to the lender, then this encourages too much lending, which leads to too much debt and to debt slavery. It's the excess debt and ensuing debt slavery, destroying people's futures, that is the essential failure in such cases. Licensing banks to lend as much as they can, for the mere cost of making a matching pair of bookkeeping entries, is but a means to that end.

There is a delightful, truly delightful, post by someone evidently of Chinese heritage at An Open Letter From A Chinese Reader- “Social Inequality” and The “Destructive Cycle” of China which spells out this and much more, from a perspective quite different than the American one I hold.

P.S. - Perhaps one of the messages that Chris Coles, EJ and others have for us, as they seek to find better ways to contribute to the well being of our society even as they seek to protect accumulated wealth is that it is not just about "guarding one's stash", but rather it is also about increasing the value of one's contribution, be it of labor, insight or wealth investment, to the family, friends, communities and society about one.

[leegs]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

I just have to say how much I appreciate the last few posts by JT, Chris and PC.

[EJ]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

The essential element of a healthy society is that most of its individuals have a future, a future worth working toward, a society in which it is worth improving their abilities and worth to themselves and those around them.

Debt in all its forms is an exchange of present value with future value. Too much debt creates "debt slavery", destroying people's futures as surely as other forms of slavery, tyranny and abject poverty.

The nature of the debt or of the lender or of the means of creating the lent value are all secondary. If the lent value can be created all too easily for essentially zero cost to the lender, then this encourages too much lending, which leads to too much debt and to debt slavery. It's the excess debt and ensuing debt slavery, destroying people's futures, that is the essential failure in such cases. Licensing banks to lend as much as they can, for the mere cost of making a matching pair of bookkeeping entries, is but a means to that end.

There is a delightful, truly delightful, post by someone evidently of Chinese heritage at An Open Letter From A Chinese Reader- “Social Inequality” and The “Destructive Cycle” of China which spells out this and much more, from a perspective quite different than the American one I hold.

P.S. - Perhaps one of the messages that Chris Coles, EJ and others have for us, as they seek to find better ways to contribute to the well being of our society even as they seek to protect accumulated wealth is that it is not just about "guarding one's stash", but rather it is also about increasing the value of one's contribution, be it of labor, insight or wealth investment, to the family, friends, communities and society about one.

Exactly. Think about it this way. Who would you rather "give" to? Option 1: the man or woman with a passion to create something out of nothing as all entrepreneurs do, with the will and intellect to turn the abstract into the real, not spinning gold or even necessarily producing exquisite creations but channeling the most base human passions to improve incrementally on all the blood and sacrifice of the soldiers of invention that went before them, creating value "out of thin air" as it were. Option 2: someone who seeks a guaranteed income no matter whether they contribute value or not?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

This is turning into a very thought provoking debate. First off, Wrigley, can you find out who wrote the wonderful description of the Chinese position and EJ, can you take them on board as a full member? Whomever wrote that can make a useful contribution here on iTulip.

Jtabeb, as I see it, you are still looking at this as a form of constitutional problem, the individual against the system; where I am seeing this as; we must find a way forward, but outside of or regardless of the system. What we face is indeed, very similar to the problems outlined in China if for no other reason than they were instigated by the current Western value system we are all entrained inside. The FIRE economy drives the inequality of the West from the same ethos as it has driven inequality in China.

To be able to move forward, we need to start to think for ourselves and stop looking at the future through solutions provided by the FIRE economy rulebook. So the first thing to do is throw that rulebook out the window.

So, in fact, Jtabeb, you, and one or two others have started a small ball rolling that makes sense. Let me try and explain why. All of us have to use existing FIRE economy institutions to deposit money. Not that I have any, but the process always forces us to add whatever we have to the existing FIRE economy. Every transaction we make bolsters the existing dysfunctional system. The old fashioned way out of this dilemma was to pay in cash, what was once reviled here in the UK as the Black Economy. Cash! But that does not serve us, so what we do need is a new bank; an iTulip Bank. A bank, created simply to keep the iTulip community funds out of the existing FIRE economy. Banked in the old fashioned way, all deposits made in Gold, all transactions relative to a agreed value of Gold. Set our own Gold standard. The iTulip bank must be international and thus the first question is where do we go to establish it?

So we start with our own system, completely external to any existing system and we then set out to establish our own rules of engagement. There are still stable currencies, or we can establish our own as another form of barter. Personally I believe we must use an existing currency, but to remember, over a relatively short period of time, no more than say a decade, our validity will become so strong in an uncertain world, we will become the leaders of the new age to come. The iTulip community will set the standards from now onwards. We set out to lead; not to follow.

I was about to use the word "if", and stopped myself. We must and will.

So the first thing is the bank and location and currency.

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

"So the first thing is the bank and location and currency."

Cool, I'm all in.

But just remember, this is where the "Multi-Metallic Metal Standard" comes into it's own. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, at their own "floating" exchange rate to one another. No fixed ratios, but a market driven process for determining how many of one will get you X many of the other.

All Bimetallic (plus+) standards fail when they try to maintain an artificial fixed exchange rate based on an arbitrary ratio.

Hard capital is HARD capital! We need the Itulip bank to work up and down the capital structure, you can only do that if your Hard capital "units" are sufficiently varied enough to deal with all types of capital projects. 400 Toz gold bank bars for say a new chip fab, 1/10 Toz Silver coins for say a micro finance capital project. Point is you have to meet ALL different sizes of capital needs to really offer a viable solution.

And, just to go way WAY out on a limb, if you could set up our own exchange rate mechanism, you could not just limit yourself to currencies but could also service "digital credits", he kind you get when you buy a song on Itunes or what you purchase stuff with on Xbox live. Could you imagine having a free exchange rate mechanism where you could start with "virtual currency" and, if you had enough of them, turn them into real currency and eventually say PMs?

It's too bad that a google or an apple or a microsoft is thinking about this. Think about the synergy you could gain from say a Google online platform married with this type of banking service. Think of the customer base and the depth of the capital structure. Imagine if you had a COMMON platform that served as the defacto standard used by ALL THREE of these players. NOW think of he customer base and capital structure. Remember, we are strictly talking EQUITY CAPITAL here.

You marry an existing technology company to this idea and you have growth rates and global reach that only the Web can provide. Think about that for a second.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

First off, Wrigley, can you find out who wrote the wonderful description of the Chinese position

The blog that posted it rather pointedly avoided providing any identifying information, so I was presuming that the Chinese author preferred to remain behind the scenes. Certainly I would, if I lived in China these days and wrote such a piece.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

The iTulip bank

Goldmoney.com provides for gold, silver and platinum holdings and transfers.

I suspect it would be a poor use of our limited resources to attempt to duplicate or improve on that.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Goldmoney.com provides for gold, silver and platinum holdings and transfers.

I suspect it would be a poor use of our limited resources to attempt to duplicate or improve on that.

In one sense, you are correct, but on the other hand I was using the wrong term; Bank. What I meant to say is we need to think of creating a system external to the existing FIRE economy. Right now, every transaction bolsters their system. So instead of bank, insert into your thinking a new system and even more so the need for a new savings institution. A means to spread the load.

[tsetsefly]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

so the world cup ended almost 2 weeks ago.. no gold crash...