Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

It is today, a criminal offence, (not a slap on the wrist, but you face jail), to give any form of investment advice unless you are certified under the rule structure of the FIRE economy. Moreover, the rules are now deeply embedded into every layer of the industry and are immensely complicated.

Dang -- what has the corptocracy not f'd up?

Thanks for spelling this out, Chris.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

There are a thousand sites around that offer opinions on stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets, but where is the accountability? I want to know that the person giving an opinion has a personal stake in the outcome of acting on that opinion. That is the standard that iTulip has maintained here for 12 years. The positions in gold, Treasuries, savings bonds and CDs that I have been in for nearly a decade and have outperformed stocks were easily purchased by anyone. The assets that I am buying now to diversify out of Treasuries in particular cannot. The quandary is how to maintain the same level of accountability we have kept for 12 years without abandoning many of our highly valued members along the way?

You can already see a divergence occurring. As we begin to talk more about positions in accounts with $250,000 minimums, many readers are legitimately going to start to ask, "How is this relevant to me? Sell Treasuries and buy what?"

But I think I may have come up with a creative solution to a problem that has occupied my these past several months. I can't divulge it here yet but we've gotten it past the SEC lawyers and I'm cautiously optimistic that it will work out. Stay tuned. Thank you for your support.

Thank you EJ and iTulip for looking after us. After all, things are really not easy in the Asylum Economy.

I wonder if this new direction will affect iTulip's previous inclination of "moving into oil"? It was previously stated that up to 20% of the current cash allocation would be moved into this asset class...

Also, and this is perhaps more related to my own personal situation, is the fact that virtually all my cash holdings are in retirement accounts called RRSPs (similar to a 401(k)), to maximize the after-tax returns of the recommended portfolio. Now, how can an investor located outside the US can invest into "private investments" let alone using retirement funds, seems like mission impossible.

I would lastly point out that even if I am prevented from participating into EJ's latest and greatest idea, a macro update once in a while coupled with the good folks around here is more than enough for me to stick around until they shut down the internet and iTulip with it (or vice versa). As I said before, my education funds previously allocated to a Master in Financial Engineering in London, UK at an Ivey-league school (offer which I declined in 2007) is still very much intact (actually grew quite a bit thanks to iTulip and EJ) and is now fully dedicated to a self-learning journey starting here.

[D-Mack]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Maybe when the USMNT will face France in the final. lol


Why should we believe the numbers for the US amount of gold ? Who reports it and who audits it ?


Lokks like Pritchard is also reading itulip.

Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels

...
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
..

The World Gold Council said on Friday that the central banks of Russia, the Philippines, Kazakhstan and Venezuela have been buying gold, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary authority has "restated" its reserves upwards from 143m to 323m tonnes. If there is any theme to the bullion rush, it is fear that the global currency system is unravelling. Or, put another way, gold itself is reclaiming its historic role as the ultimate safe haven and benchmark currency.
..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-unravels.html

[RTQ]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

EJ,
Thank you in advance for sharing what you can when you can. In the meantime, I am simply using USO as a start to diversification from pure cash/gold, and eagerly await additional ideas to consider. The continuing release of information on the GoM geyser (see http://globalwarming.house.gov/media...ntent#oilspill ) suggests bad things can still happen in the current situation, such as tip over of the blowout preventer or subsidence of the seafloor in that area due to erosion under the seafloor, all pointing to a potentially more restrictive drilling future in the U.S.-controlled portion of the GoM and consequent reduction in new supply.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

EJ,
Thank you in advance for sharing what you can when you can. In the meantime, I am simply using USO as a start to diversification from pure cash/gold, and eagerly await additional ideas to consider. The continuing release of information on the GoM geyser (see http://globalwarming.house.gov/media...ntent#oilspill ) suggests bad things can still happen in the current situation, such as tip over of the blowout preventer or subsidence of the seafloor in that area due to erosion under the seafloor, all pointing to a potentially more restrictive drilling future in the U.S.-controlled portion of the GoM and consequent reduction in new supply.

RTQ, I would like to point out that spot Crude Oil hit a low of $30.28 pb on Dec. 28, 2008. Based on today's spot price for Crude Oil of $77.92 this represents an increase of 157.3%.

Meanwhile, USO is up only 7.1% over that period!, while DBO did much better with an increase of 30.0% over the same time frame. Of course even DBO's performance is disappointing considering the increase in the spot price of Crude Oil.

[icm63]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

The most prominent EW analyst (Prechter) is wrong about gold since 2001. EW is useless.

Every analyst gets a trade wrong.

Did you see EJ pick the Current $USD strength:NOPE!
Did you see Prechter pick strength in the $USD recently : YES!

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/...us-dollar/1946


Elliot wave and GANN only work when it fits, sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.

Just keep an eye on the higher highs and higher lows, etc...

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Elliot wave and GANN only work when it fits, sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.

yeah, so does a flipped coin. Pay me & I'll make predictions for you .. unlike Prechter & Gann, and much better than both combined, I'll be right 50% of the time.

PS and FYI, with that attitude you're ripe to be picked clean by a good con artist.

[icm63]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Let me guess Spartacus, you retired at 25, worth millions from your trading fortune, cause your always right!

I never defended GANN or the Elliot wave approach, BUT I have seen experts in their field do just fine ! Then again I have seen someone do real well on just moving average cross overs, nothing more:
Ref: The magic of moving avergaes by Scot Lowery (Traders Press)

[WDCRob]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Entrepreneurs as the undervalued asset class. Makes perfect sense. Please do keep us posted EJ, and I hope you're able to get that limit down under $250k.

[EricPhan]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_b...johnston-.html

Quick read on MLP and taxes. This chart summarizes the differences between corps, partnerships, and MLPs

6a00d8341c4eab53ef0133f1848501970b-800wi.jpg

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_b...johnston-.html

Quick read on MLP and taxes. This chart summarizes the differences between corps, partnerships, and MLPs

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3408[/ATTACH]

mlps may be a good investment... but are they moral?

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Chris,

I recently sold some, not a lot, of gold to diversify into one of these two start-ups.

gold off 2% since then?

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

mlps may be a good investment... but are they moral?

Depends how your taxes are used for I guess...

Now back to Oligopoly!

[metalman]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

Depends how your taxes are used for I guess...

Now back to Oligopoly!

on second thought, if someone's figured out a way around the tax regime, power to them. bring on the mlps!

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

"Returning to the wider debate about the system being not functional from my personal viewpoint, it is not only not functional; In my opinion, it absolutely prevents the ongoing establishment of a free society. That the present rules and investment mechanisms have created a feudal western civilisation, not unlike the worst examples from ancient history. By Western, I mean on both sides of the Pond. The US and Europe."

Yep, We are at that "John Galt Moment". More precisely, If I don't trust the economic system, and think I will only get screwed for my productive efforts, why in the hell would I want to set myself up as a wet nurse to a bunch of leaches? (Or if you prefer, do I WILLFULLY CHOOSE to continue to serve as an enabler for a drug addict?)

I think it all comes down to this. We all (I think all) want to save America but we don't want to be FIRE enablers (and their minions in the political and MSM class). What is MOST IMPORTANT (or should be IMHO) is taking care of our fellow Americans and making their collective lives better. But this places us in the untenable position of supporting the very thing that we are trying to eradicate or denying economic life blood to our fellow citizens. Great choice, right?

So what's the way out? I'm going to have to go with Andrew Jackson on this. We will have no gain until we take the pain (and END the Den of Vipers and Theives, err, the FED). And, most imporantly, that natural resource constraint clock just keeps on ticking away while Rome Burns. And, in this game, if you run out the clock, you don't win, you die (or revert back to a subsistence level of survival, which of course is impossible for most people in industrialized societies). So yeah a whole crap-load of people die. or as EJ positied, you just have a nice war which would, of course kill a bunch of people (with the added bonus of totally destroying the economy due to the combined effects of the energy price spike AND the diversion of supplies from commercial to military use). Win the War, destroy your Country and your Economy. Umm, yeah, me thinks this is a poor choice.

So THE CHOICE, THE ONLY CHOICE that does not result in our complete and utter self-imposed annihilation IS:

A. Some variation of this (Charter STATE BANKS in each and every state and use them to hold gov depository reciepts) With a 100% RESERVE requirement, I might add.
Andrew Jackson believed that the Second Bank of the United States was unconstitutional and that it posed a serious threat to the American economy and its democratic political institutions. Though its charter was not set to expire until 1836, BUS president Nicholas Biddle requested and received a congressional recharter in 1832. Jackson decided to veto the bill. Jackson escalated this so-called "Bank Andrew Jackson believed that the Second Bank of the United States was unconstitutional and that it posed a serious threat to the American economy and its democratic political institutions. Though its charter was not set to expire until 1836, BUS president Nicholas Biddle requested and received a congressional recharter in 1832. Jackson decided to veto the bill. Jackson escalated this so-called "Bank War" in 1833 when he removed federal government funds that were on deposit with the BUS and distributed them to loyal state banks. War" in 1833 when he removed federal government funds that were on deposit with the BUS and distributed them to loyal state banks.

B. Dump the entitlement system, the tax system and the bugetary process and move to a system where there is no private credit (loans of funds in my (or a bank's) possession, YES, credit created out of thin air, NO) and provide everyone with a guaranteed income. Have a consumption tax, and if Hudson is to believed, a property tax. You pay for services from the government (you can choose to spend your guaranteed income however responsibly or irresponsibly you wish). And of course you have to have some pre-refund mechanism on the consumption tax so that people who spend 100% of their income on necessities are not taxed on the privlage of living. If I were king for a day, I would open up the option of "PAID" volunteer work in comunities and schools etc. that is strictly in addition to you guaranteed income level, not a replacement or a net reduction. I love the idea that people can get paid for helping other people, so, Heck, I say "Make it happen".

Now all we have to do is crash the currency and the international monetary system and re-institute national currencies that are settled in gold for international trade transactions and we are in business!

(Of course this requires that all currencies are FREELY priced in gold instead of gold being priced in currencies) Hey, I can dream right? (As I see it, I'm free as long as I know I'm free, if I forget, well, then, I'm not) Note to self, "Always know I'm free".

Okay, good, moving on...

Then you get what's called "a self-sustaining recovery", but not before.


You know what the difference between us and a Horse is?

A horse that is dying of thirst will drink if you lead him to water. We won't