Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over - Eric Janszen

[bart]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Those are not anecdotes, they're facts... as anyone can confirm via searches.

Using a term like anecdote for a real track record could be construed as attempted spin or similar.

[yernamehear]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Those are not anecdotes, they're facts... as anyone can confirm via searches.

Using a term like anecdote for a real track record could be construed as attempted spin or similar.

And a special good luck to you too!! (you'll need it)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/anecdote

ROFLMAO;)

[bart]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

And a special good luck to you too!! (you'll need it)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/anecdote

ROFLMAO;)

Yep, a noise freak - as expected.

Thanks for taking the bait and exposing yourself so clearly, plus showing the difference between a fact and an anecdote for me.

[metalman]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

And a special good luck to you too!! (you'll need it)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/anecdote

ROFLMAO;)

one last reply before adding you to my ignore the troll list...

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top, crash to follow that leads to severe recession
  
• October 2006: Severe recession starts Q4 2007
  
• December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market, 40% decline to follow
  
• June 16, 2008: Top of commercial real estate market, crash to follow
  
• September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash
• March 27, 2009: Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce

[bart]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

one last reply before adding you to my ignore the troll list...
...

It's not impossible in my opinion that he's an astroturfer too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing

[metalman]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

It's not impossible in my opinion that he's an astroturfer too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing

w/o discernible agenda besides detraction.

[bart]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

w/o discernible agenda besides detraction.

Yep, one of the hallmarks of a troll - as are cutesy names and junior high school type hissy fits and lack of manners, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_%28Internet%29


We'll see...

[Chris Coles]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Congratulations to EJ. These are anecdotes.

Again, it is pretty easy to buy 30 stocks, as was previously posted, (and maybe fewer), and correlate with the S&P 500. The "s&P 500 etf's" objection is a red herring.

No offense to EJ, Bill Miller, or whomever, but with billions of investors in the world, somebody is going to flip a coin and get heads 15 times in a row (essentially, Bill Miller did).

One needs quantitative/mechanical trading systems with risk management ( I know a few), not anecdotes.

Like I always say, Good Luck. :cool:

There are other aspects of this corner of the debate that are worth highlighting; particularly when we remember that there are often many hundreds of guests on these particular pages.

The early subscribers were drawn to itulip as it reflected the same thoughts as we were having about the economy. What EJ has done is set out the detail in a way that none of us could do on our own. His various messages were so very well set out in detail, we could see they matched our own thoughts; but in doing that, he showed us the leadership credentials of someone prepared to give up a large slice of his time to telling the story.

Turning to the point you have made about the "billions of investors in the world."

Have you given any thought to the simple fact, (as I see it), that most of our present problems are caused by almost all the savings of the planet are in fact being "traded" rather than directly invested back into new job creation at the grass roots of our communities?

That when you "trade" a price of whatever you have in mind, you are not directly investing into the company or commodity; but simply making a change to the days "price" of whatever you trade.

For example, by my own calculations, the UK is short of some 6 million private sector jobs and the US is perhaps short of another 10 million. Indeed, there are debates going on that raise those numbers to respectively 15 million and 25 million.

Taking my own figures and introducing the idea that we need some £25,000 equity capital and £50,000 working capital to create long term stable private sector capital based employment here in the UK with pro rata in the US, then here in the UK we are some £450 billion under capitalised as a nation. Using the same parameters, the US is also under capitalised by as much as $750 billion. That is savings that are being "traded" rather than directly invested back into long term employment.

From my point of view, the sooner everyone recognises the long term difficulties caused by such massive under investment in local equity capital, the better it will be for everyone. As such, I will not be surprised if EJ eventually, comes around to the same viewpoint and starts to point everyone back to the most basic investment strategy:

Investing equity capital directly into your local community entrepreneur who is creating new private sector employment for their children coming out of education looking for a long term career.

Success comes from being open to new thinking, rather than following the billions all doing the same thing..... unsuccessfully.

[flintlock]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

One needs quantitative/mechanical trading systems with risk management ( I know a few), not anecdotes.

I keep expecting Billy Mays to jump out any second now and sell us one of these "systems". "But wait, there's more!"

[DSpencer]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Hypothetical: what if the world achieved ~100% productivity due to full roboticization. Further, the means of production were owned by 1 person. That would mean ~100% of the population is unemployed, and ~100% of the population cannot afford the goods being produced. Thus 100% efficiency has lead to 100% unemployment. Yet there is clearly an abundance of goods -- the robots could endlessly produce all that humanity needed, tend to the retail stores, wait tables, and no one would have to work.

I don't want to hear how this is not realistic; I have already said it's a hypothetical. I just want to know how greater efficiency would solve this problem, but redistribution would not.

I understand that this is a hypothetical and “you don’t want to hear how this is not realistic”. It’s still worth noting that “the world achieved ~100% productivity due to full roboticization. Further, the means of production were owned by 1 person. That would mean ~100% of the population is unemployed and ~100% of the population cannot afford the goods being produced” is a non sequitur. Even given the unrealistic premise, the remaining parts of this hypothetical do not follow.

If nobody can afford the goods/services that the robots produce, then there will still be demand for goods and services and the labor force to provide them. They would simply form a new economy outside of the existing economy. Unless your argument is that one person owns all potential means of production, (ie every square foot of the earth and sea). In that case, the problem does not relate to production efficiency but to one person owning the world.

Not trying to be a jerk, I just disagree that 100% production efficiency would ever lead worldwide poverty. In fact, I believe it would be closer to the opposite.

[metalman]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

I keep expecting Billy Mays to jump out any second now and sell us one of these "systems". "But wait, there's more!"

betty: 'i need a quantitative/mechanical trading system with risk management? what's that, ted?'
ted: 'glad you asked, betty. a quantitative/mechanical trading system with risk management is a system that guarantees you make the right buy & sell decisions at the right times so you always make money'.
betty: 'always make money? gee, ted. i like the sound of that'.
ted: 'you can't get that with those wishy washy anecdotal systems. why they're not even systems at all'.
betty; 'not systems? that's bad, right?'
ted: "very bad, betty. why that's like trying to drive your car with a crystal ball'.
betty: 'ha ha! i'd never do that, ted!'
ted: 'you don't want one of these guys who pretends to know the workings of the political economy through a decade of research & interviews & the impact of monetary & fiscal policy on asset prices & calls the big events right 90% of the time. no, that kind of person is the kind you need to watch out for'.
betty: 'darned right, ted. that kind of person should be stripped naked, dipped in oil & roasted on a spit over an open fire'!
ted: 'couldn't have put it better myself, betty'.

[DSpencer]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Investing equity capital directly into your local community entrepreneur who is creating new private sector employment for their children coming out of education looking for a long term career.

Success comes from being open to new thinking, rather than following the billions all doing the same thing..... unsuccessfully.

This is an interesting thought. Do you personally invest into local businesses?

If this is truly a better strategy than the big markets, then why do more people not invest in it? Lack of opportunity? Too much risk?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

This is an interesting thought. Do you personally invest into local businesses?

If this is truly a better strategy than the big markets, then why do more people not invest in it? Lack of opportunity? Too much risk?

In a very real sense, I could be described as the iTulip clown.Hilarious
You see, I am the unfunded inventor; poor as the proverbial church mouse. But being forced to live in this particular part of the economy has given me a viewpoint that some believe has value for the long term. I have set out my thoughts, first of all here on iTulip and also in the comments columns of The Times in London and then turned them into a free PDF book The Road Ahead from a Grass Roots Perspective which you may download from www.chriscoles.com/page3.html and then I formed The Capital Spillway Trust, www.chriscoles.com/page4.html gave it a constution and opened a bank account with just £1 and started to repeat an exercise I had started in 1994, I went back to the Bank of England and asked them for support for my thinking. That in turn led to Mervyn King asking me to put my thinking to the UK government, at that time Labour, and with the change of government, also to the new. Having been trying to get my point across for some decades now, I am not holding my breath; one gets used to dissapointment.

I am very close to having to give up completely as many seem to like the thinking, but without funding, it all has to come to a halt. Either eat or try and continue. Not an option I would wish on anyone I can assure you.

In my spare time I have written a book about gravity. Indeed, suspect that I have opened the door to the control of gravity, but in so doing, have completely destroyed Big Bang theory and Ideal Gas Law. So no one will give so much as a smidgin of publicity..... the book was launched early April but you will not have heard about it so no publicity equals no sales and back to square one again.

Sorry to sound a bit down. But a lifetime of being right, but at least twenty years too early, has taught me that the world does not really want to hear new thinking.

So there we are, have a read.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

In my spare time I have written a book about gravity. Indeed, suspect that I have opened the door to the control of gravity, but in so doing, have completely destroyed Big Bang theory and Ideal Gas Law. So no one will give so much as a smidgin of publicity..... the book was launched early April but you will not have heard about it so no publicity equals no sales and back to square one again.

Sorry to sound a bit down. But a lifetime of being right, but at least twenty years too early, has taught me that the world does not really want to hear new thinking.

So there we are, have a read.

Chris - What is the name of the "gravity" book ?

[Sidewinder]

Re: Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)

Chris - What is the name of the "gravity" book ?

Maybe wrong here, I haven't read his work but perhaps he meant this one?

http://www.lrsp.com/b2c.html