Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

[jtabeb]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

www.bulliondirect.com

50% gold /50% Silver by dollar purchase amount, Physical BULLION ONLY!!! (If you have $10K then, by my book, you should be $5K gold, $5K silver).
Coins better than bars, .999% pure or better.

I've done a wee bit of business over the years and they have always been outstanding. (They will even hold it for you in their vault, and you can later choose to get physical delivery).

(Okay, Okay, maybe a lot more than a wee bit of business) ;)

[icm63]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

Metalman..

In my defense..$USD doing just fine...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-may-have-legs

My crime is that I may be early on the Gold thoughts...

[metalman]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

Metalman..

In my defense..$USD doing just fine...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-may-have-legs

My crime is that I may be early on the Gold thoughts...

all respect, my friend... you have a record of calling for dollar rallies & gold corrections that don't materialize... a contrarian among contrarians... i salute you!

[icm63]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

.."dollar rallies"..

I see nothing, I see nothing....Sgt Schultz

[metalman]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

.."dollar rallies"..

I see nothing, I see nothing....Sgt Schultz

dollar up over eu shit storm...



gold, also...

[unlucky]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

The original buy gold call was "before my time", and even after discovering iTulip sometime late in 2006, I debated with myself about whether or not it was worth it to buy gold in one form or another. I dipped my toes in the water but nothing significant...

My experience with this site has been similar to yours, Zoog. I first came across it around 2005/2006. At the time my peers were borrowing heavily to invest in property, or to buy cars and foreign holidays. Banks were actively encouraging borrowing for any purpose whatsoever. I inquired about borrowing a modest 20,000 euros to top up a business investment and I was offered 50,000 no questions asked and no security required.

I didn't take it. The world seemed to have gone mad - or was I the crazy one? Then by accident I discovered this site and finally found a coherent explanation for what was going on. As I read through the material here, I realized that a) I was not crazy, and b) the world was heading for deep shit. Nevertheless I remained a little skeptical because I felt that some of the material here was a little doomerish / conspiracy theory oriented, and anyone who uses the web learns to take such material with a pinch of salt.

Then in mid-2007 those two Bear Sterns hedge funds went belly up, rumours of big problems with MBS started spreading widely, in August iTulip warned of an impending collapse and a few days later the story broke on the MSM when the ECB launched massive intervention to save the banks. I was stunned. There are lots of websites warning of some future disaster in one form or another, but iTulip is the only place I have come across that warned of an imminent major catastrophe that actually happened.

After that I started building up my position in Au to the recommended 33% of liquid. I'm not particularly wealthy but at least I know that this portion of the wealth I've earned is protected. I worry a lot about the other 66%. But most of all I get frustrated when the price jumps suddenly and I am looking at fewer oz per euro for my earnings next quarter

I think the task of iTulip has become much more challenging in recent times because the authorities have now recognized the existence of a threat to the regime, and they are responding to it in both word and deed. It was easier to predict what would happen next when the player on the other side of the chessboard was apparently asleep. The authorities have been awake since 2008, they have limited options due to the mistakes made in the past, but their activities may also become more erratic as the situation grows more serious.

[icm63]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

re read what I said dude..

USD rally may force gold holders to bank some profits as they see the $USD strength may have leggs... The countries pegged to the $USD have been buying gold for years. The $USD is going up, soon the will bank profits as they realise this. Large funds want to own gold, and to get it at better prices is to force a sell off, getting $USD to new year on year highs might just do that. A serious world inflation problem is not in the near term, but a fews years down the track a period of $USD strength is just whats need to loosen your tight hands on your gold stash...

In my defense, the $USD will reach A POINT when gold rally attracks large profit taking...

In your defence, so may the $USD rally reach a point for a sell off..

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

www.bulliondirect.com

Interesting ...

Can anyone compare BullionDirect (Austin, TX) with APMEX (Oklahoma City, OK)? I'm about half-way between them, near Dallas, and have been using APMEX.

I've been happy with APMEX but if I had good reason, could switch.

Does anyone know of a similarly good dealer in the Dallas area? I like the idea of being within driving distance for some situations.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

Interesting ...

Can anyone compare BullionDirect (Austin, TX) with APMEX (Oklahoma City, OK)? I'm about half-way between them, near Dallas, and have been using APMEX.

I've been happy with APMEX but if I had good reason, could switch.

Does anyone know of a similarly good dealer in the Dallas area? I like the idea of being within driving distance for some situations.

Well, 1,073 miles is not exactly close, even for a flying Cow, but they sure are funny! (I highly suggest sampling a podcast when both Eric and Joe are on; they are good).

http://allamericangold.com/index.html

Too bad they won't ship to Canada.


PS: I have no affiliation with them; I am just a podcast PTG fan.

[jtabeb]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

You don't have to worry about the other 66% you know, you can just as easily choose to put them where the other 33% are. (And yes you do indeed sleep better, trust me, okay?) ;)

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

Thank you, EJ.

[jtabeb]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

I think you should revisit your own article here.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...3-Eric-Janszen

It is very, VERY GOOD. I think you lose sight of it too often. I think you had it EXACTLY correct in that article. (And present day circumstances seem to provide AMPLE evidence towards it's validity).

If you take what Bill Black says, and what you say in "Everyone is wrong again, 1981 in reverse" and do a little thought experiment, where does that leave us?

Well, for MY MONEY (My GOLD and SILVER Money err, currency, that is). This guy completes your thoughts and takes the thought experiment to it's logical conclusion.

I Highly recommend that you all give this a read (for what it's worth).

(I know, I know, can't happen, won't happen, blah, blah, blah)

For all of you arguing the above, Give me a cogent argument why it WON'T HAPPEN, given what we observe in government policy action today.

C'mon, GO AHEAD. TELL ME. What exactly is going to stop this train wreck BEFORE the onset of hyper-inflation? Not a failed bond auction, certainly. Not a failure to monetize bad assets and debts. And there is no political will to reform the system or rein-in BLATANT criminal activity and accounting fraud (on ALL levels, I might add). So, come on, do your best. Prove Nassim Taleb and the hyper-inflationists wrong.

I Dare you to DO IT! (Because I don't think that it is possible)

And THAT my friends, leaves ONLY THIS:
Gold: The Ultimate Hedge Fund





http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/05/hair-of-dog.html

There are some clever deflationists that will tell you that the dollar is going to rise in value giving Ben, Tim, Barack and the entire DC gang a lengthy free lunch, all because of the giant debt overhang in the economy that backs the US dollar. The thinking goes something like this. The world is full of debt. The dollar is backed by this debt, and is therefore balanced by it. As long as the debt remains, it must be serviced with dollars which drives up the demand for dollars, and therefore the value of dollars. If the service of the debt starts to fail then the dollar will start to fall making the service of the debt easier (with cheaper dollars) and the service will then resume, raising the dollar back up. I call this the see-saw theory...

The problem is, you see, the biggest debtor of all is the very printer of the currency all that debt is denominated in. And this debtor is now picking up ALL of the slack left behind by everyone else. Only his debt service will never fail, because he can print that service with the click of a mouse. And since he doesn't have to seek dollars on the open market, his debt has the OPPOSITE effect of all other debt. Instead of driving up demand for the dollar, it drives it down (and drives up supply at the same time)!

Normal debt = dollar demand up, dollar supply down.
US Fed Gov't debt = dollar demand down, dollar supply way up!

As the dollar starts to fall in value, this has no effect whatsoever on the ability of the world's biggest debtor's ability to service it, and therefore has no see-saw-leverage effect that raises the value of the dollar back up. Instead, it has the exact OPPOSITE effect... once again. Because now this biggest debtor must print even MORE dollars to suck in the same SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT of the real economy at ZERO cost.

And here is another way I illustrated this effect in pictures...

This first diagram shows how private debt service, private reinvestment and productive enterprise normally act as a counter-cycle to credit-based inflation. But the only way it works under the global dollar reserve system is for the debt hole to grow infinitely deeper while the accumulation of paper bonds and bills is piled infinitely higher. There is no balance or reset mechanism in place. Only catastrophic collapse:


This next diagram shows in a simple picture what happens when the private debtor fails to keep up with infinite expansion. This is Greece as well as your neighbor that lost his house. Once you remove the private counterbalance the Fed must pick up the slack. Notice that there is no longer a counter-rotational flow:


This next diagram shows about where we are today. We are monetizing the failing debt. We are replacing credit money with base money, and the US federal deficit is the enabler of this process. As FOA said:

My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed. This is where all these deflationist get their direction. Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash. Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! (smile) Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms!"


At some point soon, in between the above diagram and the next one, the markets are going to repudiate any more dollar debt in recognition of what is unfolding. This event will propel us into this last diagram as the Fed will be forced to print every last dollar spent by the US federal government, and that's a lot of dollars. This diagram represents Weimar Germany in the 1920's, Zimbabwe in the 2000's and the USA in the 2010's:


(The above diagrams came from my post Greece is the Word)

A little "hair of the dog" I'd say. Or maybe a little too much "hair of the dog".

[jtabeb]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

More perspective for those that are lacking.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...-not-a-chance/

AND

http://www.breakingviews.com/2010/05....aspx?sg=false

[gnk]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

...and the dollar has been subsumed into a multi-lateral currency system.

I'm assuming you are referring to the potential (or in the workings) emergence of the SDR here? (Or a similar global monetary scheme)

And thus, the end of dollar hegemony? If so, would this not affect our "exorbitant privilege" as the Euros would say - thus making oil, if not most imported resources much more expensive? What would the subsequent inflationary aspects be if we could no longer export our inflation as much as we used to? I would assume rather problematic.

[gnk]

Re: Before the FIRE Gold Update: Is $1,237 the new $720? - Eric Janszen

hey jtabeb - are you also familiar with Antal Fekete?

Here's an interesting short read:

http://www.professorfekete.com/artic...tionPaper1.pdf