The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

[charliebrown]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

OK does anyone care to speculate on is this the one where we are not getting up?

2009 crash saw a terminal shiller PE of around 13. The 80's resession had a terminal PE of 8. That would mean S&P 500?
or is this going to be a mini crash before the big one, say shiller pe back to 14 (820) and the reflation again. I assume because this crash is about the sovereigns we will probe below 14.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

'The First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market has gone on for four months longer than we expected. Will it end with a down-for-the-count crash or a correction followed by quick recovery? What will end it? Rate hikes by the Fed? The escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe? A banking and financial crisis in China’s credit bubble economy? The next Peak Cheap Oil recession? Our answer: All of them, and pretty much all at once. If you thought the 2008 crash was bad, wait until you see the next one.'

[Anon21456]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

stocks down 9% since 'next crash' posted...

'I’m not ready to say “Time to short” it yet, but the fix is in.'

used my secret squirrel decoder ring to read into the cryptic message 'the fix is in.'

yeh, yeh... hard to tell what he meant by that. :cool:

my genius interpretation?

'the fix is in'.

Hi Metal Man !

The golden cross is almost there. Wait for it. EJ will make his call around that time. Then wait for a retracement and short the whole market Then start laughing as people are panicking.

[Ben]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

Osw3

[LargoWinch]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

I'm planning too on Monday.

I wonder when EJ is going to start...

My 3 years futures ETF is under 80. Only 20% higher than its low in 2008. Spot is around 70. Keep waiting for 60?

Ben, what 3-year ETF are you talking about OSB3? OSW3?

[Ben]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

I'm planning too on Monday.

I wonder when EJ is going to start...

My 3 years futures ETF is under 80. Only 20% higher than its low in 2008. Spot is around 70. Keep waiting for 60?

[jk]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

i've been adding to my energy positions in the last 2 days. but i'm always very early.

[Ben]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

Well that was nice but I think we can agree he got a little lucky

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

stocks down 9% since 'next crash' posted...



'I’m not ready to say “Time to short” it yet, but the fix is in.'

used my secret squirrel decoder ring to read into the cryptic message 'the fix is in.'

yeh, yeh... hard to tell what he meant by that. :cool:

my genius interpretation?

'the fix is in'.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

What do you know? Do you subscribe to his newsletter? Other than regularly prattling "we told you to buy gold in 2001", what else do you say? I would have bet the ranch that the first assault in response to my criticism would come from you. Well, I had hoped we would get responses of a higher quality than this. Everyone who has criticised EJ on this site gets attacked by you first. Unfortunately, the attacks are never of good quality.

still whining about how ej didn't get you back into the market? 3 wks later "next crash" looks spot in.

[LargoWinch]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

So I take it you guys haven't moved into oil yet?

What have you moved into phinolerun?

You "talk the talk" but can you "walk the walk"?

[BDS4]

Re: What did todays market action tell us about metals and Gold?

no further complaints about how itulip didn't get us out of the market in dec 2007 & also back in again in mar 2009... is that because since this article posted apr 28 we're now 23% vs 17% better off for cutting out in dec 2007 & never getting back in?

& gold is up while stocks are down... as this article forecasts.

& no more gold manipulation theories now that gold's back over $1200?

& whatever happened to mish/denniger & all the deflationists?

Could this all be part of the "plan" to solve the looming entitlements crisis? It seems to me that in order to solve SS and Medicare you need to get people to not retire without ordering it per law (this may cause rioting as in Greece or outright revolt). So how do you do that? House appreciation and 401k's are what allow the common man to retire since SS/Medicare benefits will not do on it's own. Crash the housing and stock markets and voila! problem goes away. No messy inflation or huge tax increases necessary. Everyone that can works until they drop. It's all due to the international debt crisis and not due to governments. Side benefit is the banks own all of the assets due to foreclosure/default and have a lot to share with their buddies - the politicians.

[Anon21456]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

That's fair game : the French give the money, they decide how it must be used.

[metalman]

nice try...

...but you're paying for greece's purchase of french weapons like it or not...

Top German Court Denies Emergency Ruling on Greek Aid (Update1)

By Angela Cullen and Karin Matussek

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s highest constitutional court rejected an attempt by a group of economists and university professors to block the nation’s participation in a 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) aid package for Greece.

The court denied their request for an emergency ruling that would prevent the government from taking any steps as long as the case was pending, the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe said in an e-mailed statement today. An interim ruling would be more damaging to Germany if the rescue measures were later deemed to be constitutional, the court said.

German lawmakers approved yesterday loans of as much as 22.4 billion euros for Greece, with the lower house of parliament in Berlin voting 390 to 72 in favor of the country’s share of the financial lifeline from the euro region and the International Monetary Fund that will allow Greece to avoid default. The upper house, where Germany’s 16 states are represented, also backed the bill.

Unless the government acts now, the whole rescue attempt may be endangered, the court said.

The group of five economists and professors sought the emergency ruling as part of a complaint at Germany’s top court, arguing that the aid package violates the “no bailout-clause” in European Union governing treaties.

The plaintiffs, law professor Karl Schachtschneider, economists Joachim Starbatty, Wilhelm Hankel and Wilhelm Noelling, and former Thyssen AG Chief Executive Officer Dieter Spethmann, have previously tried to block German involvement in key EU measures.

Starbatty, Hankel, Noelling and Schachtschneider unsuccessfully sued to prevent the adoption of the Euro in 1998. Spethmann was among the plaintiffs who tried to block Germany’s adoption of the 27-nation bloc’s Lisbon treaty. The court dismissed that case last year.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

did someone say 'shit show'?

Greece forced to buy arms: MEP
PARIS: France and Germany, while publicly urging Greece to make harsh public spending cuts, bullied its government to confirm billions of euros in arms deals, a leading Euro-MP alleged Friday.

Franco-German lawmaker Daniel Cohn-Bendit said that Paris and Berlin are seeking to force Prime Minister George Papandreou to spend Greece’s scarce cash on submarines, a fleet of warships, helicopters and war planes.

“I met Mr Papandreou last week. I was in Athens. I’ve known him for a long time,” Cohn-Bendit told reporters, accusing Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy of blackmailing his friend. Cohn-Bendit accused France and Germany of making their contributions to an IMF-led rescue package for the debt-ridden Greek economy contingent on Athens honouring massive arms deals signed by Papandreou’s predecessor. “It’s incredible the way the Merkels and Sarkozys of this world treat a Greek prime minister,” he declared, adding that Papandreou had recently met Sarkozy and French Prime Minister Francois Fillon in Paris. “Mr Fillon and Mr Sarkozy told Mr Papandreou: ‘We’re going to raise the money to help you, but you are going to have to continue to pay the arms contracts that we have with you’,” Cohn-Bendit said.

“In the past three months we have forced Greece to confirm several billion dollars in arms contracts. French frigates that the Greeks will have to buy for 2.5 billion euros. Helicopters, planes, German submarines.”

Cohn-Bendit, a former leader of the 1968 student revolt in Paris, is leader of the Green group in the European parliament. afp