The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market Ends

[icm63]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

stocks plunge, gold up... my kinda day! stocks fall on rising sovereign default risk, gold up as flight capital refuge... nice call. no 2nd 'deflation' plunge... did anyone else other than ej figure this out?

That wont last, if stocks fall 10% plus, there will be contagion selling. Its just a matter of cash flow redemptions for the funds..cant be stopped.

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

nothing like the case made here... never seen the phrase 'fiat money' used by ej. the itulip argument has nothing to do with fiat money... 'fiat falling' is not the itulip case for stocks fall & gold rises... has nothing to do with fiat money. if that is the fleckenstein & hickey argument... they are right on stocks & gold but for the wrong reasons.

Shrug. I wasn't going for the perfect description. Basically, I find them in rough alignment with EJ for similar reasons. Fleckenstein in particular called for investing in gold as early as EJ, although I'll give EJ more credit for the "all-in" call.

I know I'll never convince you that anyone was as near brilliant in all this as EJ so I'm not even going to bother.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

Essentially the same that has been made here -- realization that fiats are failing. Gold not falling is a result of people being far less willing to part with it, and more buyers coming in to buy on ever smaller dips.

Another point that has been made is that gold/silver miners are starting to show some teflon on stock falls as well.

nothing like the case made here... never seen the phrase 'fiat money' used by ej. the itulip argument has nothing to do with fiat money... 'fiat falling' is not the itulip case for stocks fall & gold rises... has nothing to do with fiat money. if that is the fleckenstein & hickey argument... they are right on stocks & gold but for the wrong reasons.

[Jay]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

When ice cube is being quoted at itulip you know $hit is going down. /s

Love that.

[chr5648]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

As Ice Cube would say "Today was a good day."

When ice cube is being quoted at itulip you know $hit is going down. /s

[cjppjc]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

Another point that has been made is that gold/silver miners are starting to show some teflon on stock falls as well.

As Ice Cube would say "Today was a good day."

[sishya]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

I got out of my stocks (have stocks in 401K only) in Feb 2007: S&P 1250. Got in back in March 12th approx(around S&P 688 on way down). But got out at S&P 920 and moved to Money Market. I felt like a moron with S&P around $1200 now but I guess at least I did not lose any. If S&P goes to 1500 I will feel bad like most of us will. At least my physical Gold is doing good. I am thinking of moving some Gold to my native country as a point of diversification.

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

cool... what was their argument for stocks & gold not falling together?

Essentially the same that has been made here -- realization that fiats are failing. Gold not falling is a result of people being far less willing to part with it, and more buyers coming in to buy on ever smaller dips.

Another point that has been made is that gold/silver miners are starting to show some teflon on stock falls as well.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

Sure they did. Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey just to name two....

cool... what was their argument for stocks & gold not falling together?

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

stocks plunge, gold up... my kinda day! stocks fall on rising sovereign default risk, gold up as flight capital refuge... nice call. no 2nd 'deflation' plunge... did anyone else other than ej figure this out?

Sure they did. Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey just to name two....

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

stocks plunge, gold up... my kinda day! stocks fall on rising sovereign default risk, gold up as flight capital refuge... nice call. no 2nd 'deflation' plunge... did anyone else other than ej figure this out?

[bart]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

So how shall I talk about another 50% loss over the next ten years? Shall I forecast DJIA 10,000 and explain each time that I mean DJIA 5,000 in 2010 dollars, or shall I talk about DJIA 5,000 in which case when the market is trading around 10,000 it appears that the forecast is off by 50%? It's a conundrum that I have yet to solve.

I struggle with it too, but "DJIA" and "Real DJIA (adjusted for inflation)" is my current preference, although I also use a corrected CPI as most know.

Another way is two charts ("DJIA" and "Real DJIA (adjusted for inflation)"), and use a standard color scheme with the inflation corrected ones.

[metalman]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

it's like something he'd say, tho, ain't it?

[BigBagel]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

http://en.wikivisual.com/index.php/Anti-Hellenism

The alleged Kissinger quote is a great tribute to the character of the Greek people but the quote is an apparent urban myth.

[icm63]

Re: The Next Crash - Part I: How the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market ends - Eric Jans

And What happened to the PDF tool ??? Dam that was cool??