Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

[neeraj19]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

EJ, thanks for posting your thoughts on this topic. I am a very skeptical person when it comes to conspiracy theories, my views are summed up by the line, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence". Good to know that you and most of the iTulip community are basically on the same page.

[neeraj19]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

EJ, thanks for posting your thoughts on this topic. I am a very skeptical person when it comes to conspiracy theories, my views are summed up by the line, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence". Good to know that you and most of the iTulip community are basically on the same page.

And xpat, thanks for your clear-headed follow-up. As a (relatively new) member, this is exactly the kind of civil discourse I'm looking for.

[cobben]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

The LBMA is not a pure physical market, though it often called that - they do options, swaps & forwards apparently (but not futures), and all OTC.

Now I am no expert, just learning, so dyodd.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/london

The London Bullion Market

London is the focus of the international Over-the-Counter (OTC) market for gold and silver, with a client base that includes the majority of the central banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.
Members of the London bullion market typically trade with each other and with their clients on a principal-to-principal basis, which means that all risks, including those of credit, are between the two counterparts to a transaction. This is known as an ‘Over the Counter’ (OTC) market, as opposed to an exchange traded environment.
The London bullion market is a wholesale market, where minimum traded amounts for clients are generally 1,000 ounces of gold and 50,000 ounces of silver.
Unlike a futures exchange – where trading is based around standard contract units, settlement dates and delivery specifications – the OTC market allows flexibility. It also provides confidentiality, as transactions are conducted between the two principals involved.

[Adeptus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

Thanks for your informative updates xPAT, they've added significant clarity to the article and this thread.
-Adeptus

[doom&gloom]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

You will not find a single recommendation here to buy gold ETFs versus physical gold. We were glad GLD opened in Jan. 2005, four years after we bought, because the ETFs made gold available to your average investor who'd never buy gold from a dealer but would gladly buy gold "shares" of an ETF for their brokerage account. That was the marketing argument for GLD. It produced incremental gold sales.

Our argument against owning gold ETFs has always been that gold, The Fourth Currency, is insurance against currency depreciation. We do not know how gold ETFs will behave in the extreme case.

I own only physical, albeit not "under the bed." Keeping gold in your home is a bad idea.

I keep a hundred oz silver bar at home just for shits and grins. Pull it out sometimes at parties. Amusing to watch the faces of people who have never seen nor held one.

[bart]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

My opinions are well known about silver & gold and the manipulation/control issue. There are only two things I can add.


From experience and talking to other traders over the decades, the LBMA is not a 100:1 game.



LBMA charts:

[Adeptus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

Interesting 5 min video on Youtube today about how the Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank) and the COMEX had hundreds of millions of gold stolen from the WTC back in 2001, and that's why in Sep 2008, when Lenny had a tour of the ScotiaBank vault, it was practically empty. Fact or Fiction? You decide.

Again, all I can tell you is that when I asked for delivery on 1000 oz silver bars in Q3 2008 from ScotiaBank, they claimed they could only deliver on 2 out of 5 bars that I requested to purchase.

If we see another dip in Silver in the next few months down into the $16 zone, I will try to buy some more and will consider reporting my experience here.


Cheers,
Adeptus

[santafe2]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

Looks to me that all sides of the story are getting a fair airing here.

Personally, I find the whole subject tiresome and irritating.

My admiration for the intellects of goldbugs aside, my primary interest in gold--and silver and platinum--is in the long-term price. Sorry to be so callous but, hey, I'm a capitalist.

I don't see how all of this tortured gold price manipulation analysis helps us figure out the one thing we care about, the thing that matters to us, our families and friends who own gold: When do we sell it?

For us, time spent on answering any other question is a waste of time.

Thanks for the clarification EJ. I was surprised to see you take the time to refute ideas associated with GATA. During my early investigation of PM, I was a paying member of GATA in 2000-2001. The nonsense that passed for journalism on their site was extraordinary. Apparently, not much has changed in the past 10 years.

Gold and silver were interesting in 2000 because they were under valued. They are more fairly valued today but should still offer value as a hedge against more traditional currencies over the next decade.

I too am a capitalist, no apologies. My interest in PM doesn't go much farther than that. I prefer to invest in ideas. My own when I have a decent one, but we all find ourselves in a time where investing is not as sure as it was 20 years ago.

Metals are a fairly priced store of value. Nothing more or less. It is not possible to conspire to drive a fairly priced investment too low. Not all people are that dumb.

Those here that see a conspiracy see only the limits of their own imagination. If there are conspirators, they are small thinkers. Take advantage of them. If they exist and drive prices down, buy. Ten years from now, you'll be happy with your profits. If you believe in a conspiracy, you'll be happy you kicked some butt. Either way, PM is still going to move up. The details are just that...details.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

Agreed on all points, and an observation

Ted Butler reported some time ago that a group of CFTC commissioners think (along with COMEX/CME Group) that if CFTC disallows excessive naked shorting and obscene short concentration on COMEX those parties will move offshore for their excessive naked shorting and obscene short concentration needs.

I'm finding myself wondering if Christian was invited by this coterie (commissioners plus COMEX/CME plus representatives, acknowledged or not, of the shorts) to get his leverage testimony on the record in support of voting "yes" to excessive naked shorting and immense. obscene short concentration on COMEX. The reasoning being, If LBMA allows it, why not COMEX?

Christian was there, IOW to reify their position. In blaring this from the rooftops, GATA plays into their hands.

Please preface all of the above with "playing the hypothetical scenarios and conspiracies game, remain skeptical of all of this".

My (2) replies on the ZH thread in case anyone's interested:


by xPat
on Fri, 04/09/2010 - 14:54
#292743

GATA's incompetence has been mind-boggling, and it's frustrating to see yet another well-meaning but completely mis-placed effort to do the right thing that will only distract attention from what's important.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

There were also allegations (uproven AFAICT) that Silver supply was so tight at the time that Mocatta looked for their Silver from their WTC offices/vaults in the rubble, and didn't bother to look for the Gold.

Interesting 5 min video on Youtube today about how the Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank) and the COMEX had hundreds of millions of gold stolen from the WTC back in 2001, and that's why in Sep 2008, when Lenny had a tour of the ScotiaBank vault, it was practically empty. Fact or Fiction? You decide.

Cheers,
Adeptus

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

30% dip would place silver around $12.60 an ounce at today spot. I would love to buy into that dip, but I don't know if we will see that price again - at least under the current currency system.

You can claim that NOW, and convince yourself it's true.

but I'm 99.9 % sure if it goes to $12.60 you WILL convince yourself it's the WRONG TIME TO BUY.

People buy on the way up, and they buy the most at the highest price. Some sell on the downside, but most don't sell until it's way, WAY over the hump on the downside.

And some do buy dips, thinking they're getting a bargain, but almost no one buys after a large dip.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

While I can't personnaly attest as to how much physical gold/silver is in ScotiaBank's vaults, I happened to have bought from ScotiaBank physical gold AND silver right around Sept 2008 when the guy in the MP3 interview claims he walked into their vaults and saw them mostly bare.

My personal experience was as follows:

Adeptus

Not a new situation AT ALL

When I took delivery of mine (2002), in Toronto, sales office is right above the vaults, they had one bar. One extremely dirty & mis-shapen bar. so bad you couldn't tell it was Silver.


It took several weeks to get the rest of my shipment in. I forget exact time frames (it was 8 years ago).

things that stood out:

several tried to tell me not to buy,

no one working there (sales, clerks, managers, security people) could remember when anyone had taken delivery, EVER.

they tried to sell me certificates (storing them would cost almost the same as a safety deposit box) which I did buy until the physical came in & I could trade.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

Eric


I would love to hear you thoughts on Gordon Brown's rather sudden & strange sale of 50% of the UK Gold @ an all time low prices?


Mike

Thats easy to explain Mike. Gordon Brown is an ignorant, self assured, self righteous, cocky MORON. For the record, he actually sold a lot more than 50 percent.

[xPat]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

For anyone interested in this subject, this week's FSN first hour is an absolute must-listen.


Jim Puplava has done an outstanding job of debunking the nonsense promulgated by GATA and KWN recently. He interviews Jeff Christian who reiterates what he really said in the CFTC hearing and elaborates on the real issues in play here.


Jim goes on to interview Nick Barisheff (Bullion Management Group) who debunks the most recent KWN interviews pertaining to bullion banks in Canada.


Incidentally, I e-mailed all of my concerns to Eric King and asked him to reconsider the path he's on, but have yet to receive the courtesy of a reply.


Contrary to Eric King's rhetoric, we're not seeing "the biggest fraud in history", but rather instead, perhaps, one of the most egregious shortcomings of journalism (KWN) and a supposed watchdog organization (GATA) in recent memory.


xPat

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Silver price manipulation? If it looks too bad to be true, it probably is - Eric Janszen

For anyone interested in this subject, this week's FSN first hour is an absolute must-listen.

Here's a link to the Financial Sense Newshour. Go to Saturday, April 10, 2010 for this interview.