The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Why do you want the 17th amendment repealed? :confused:

There is a convenient summary of my reasons at Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution (Wikipedia):

Calls for complete repeal
Several advocates of federalism have called for the Seventeenth Amendment's repeal.^[5] For example, then-U.S. Senator Zell Miller of Georgia, shortly after announcing his intention to retire from the Senate, made this statement from the Senate floor:

Direct elections of Senators … allowed Washington’s special interests to call the shots, whether it is filling judicial vacancies, passing laws, or issuing regulations.^[6]

Libertarian author and economist Thomas DiLorenzo has characterized the Seventeenth Amendment as "one of the last nails to be pounded into the coffin of federalism in America."^[7]

The amendment has been blamed, together with the Sixteenth Amendment, for generally expanding the authority of the United States Congress in the 20th century.^[8] Organizations have been created to support the amendment's complete repeal.^[9]

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

But you are still left with a massive number of people who are suddenly unemployed.

Yes, massive. A substantial proportion of employed Americans receive their pay directly or indirectly (such as via contracts or services thereto) from the Federal government. Just repealing the income tax would put millions of accountants and lawyers and tax preparers out of business.

It is better in my view to send subsistence checks to each citizen, regardless of their circumstance or income, than to involve the Federal government in a vast arsenal of detail. Heaven forbid we have the Federal government devising "a detailed plan to invest new equity capital back into new jobs in each and every local community."

I still prefer the football referee analogy. The Federal government, like referee's and their sports organizations, has a proper role in setting and enforcing rules that establish a fair and level playing field. But the individual players, coaches, team organizations, and those funding them should be establishing the "detailed plans to invest", as well as deciding the roster and calling and executing the plays.

P.S. -- I will readily admit that I have a better chance of achieving my childhood dream of becoming an NBA all-star center than we have of realizing the items listed in my earlier post above.

[jtabeb]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

It is better in my view to send subsistence checks to each citizen, regardless of their circumstance or income, than to involve the Federal government in a vast arsenal of detail.

That is my position EXACTLY!! (and stated here more than once)

Except I think we should actually DO IT, as opposed as a tongue in cheek quip (If I'm reading you correctly).

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Then neither of you have actually read The Capital Spillway Trust Proposal. In it you will discover that I do not believe it necessary for any government involvement. That what I propose is the local communities form their own "Local" Capital Spillway Trust fund and make their own investments, but simply under the rules I have proposed.

www.chriscoles.com/page4.html

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

That requires a detailed plan to invest new equity capital back into new jobs in each and every local community; which once again brings me back to my own thinking about The Capital Spillway Trust.

Then neither of you have actually read The Capital Spillway Trust Proposal. In it you will discover that I do not believe it necessary for any government involvement. That what I propose is the local communities form their own "Local" Capital Spillway Trust fund and make their own investments, but simply under the rules I have proposed.

May I suggest you be careful then in saying we need "a detailed plan". That sounds like one plan, in the singular, which will be read by almost all as a national (or even world) plan, not diverse local plans.

It has become endemic to discussions such as these to speak of what "we" need, with the tacit assumption being what the nation needs and must organize nationally. The occasional, ever more rare, objection might be met with some such rebuttal as "this is too important to be left to the local governments."

I recommend actively phrasing one's recommendations to counteract this tendency.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Except I think we should actually DO IT, as opposed as a tongue in cheek quip (If I'm reading you correctly).

I do not speak with tongue in cheek. However my HOPE for CHANGE is ZERO .

[jk]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

The unemployment rate among government employees fell from 6.1% to 3.7% during the Housing Bubble Recession.

people have been looking for the next trigger for another downleg. one candidate has been the end of the fed's mbs program this month. however, with fannie and freddie federalized and ready to step into the breach, i'm not sure that matters.

otoh, government employment has been very dependent on the stimulus. and the stimulus has ended.

newly elected n.j. governor christie is cutting state education spending, including subsidies to localities, by $800 million. last year nj had $1billion in federal stimulus money for education - now that money is disappearing. this will mean thousands of layoffs in the government sector.

next year there will be, iirc, 37 gubernatorial races. i expect a lot of republican victories - the democrats are too tied to the state employees' unions to take radical cost-cutting stands. the republicans will run like christie did, and pursue similar policies. thus, over the next 2 years we can expect the government sector to do a little "catching up" to the private sector in terms of unemployment.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

May I suggest you be careful then in saying we need "a detailed plan". That sounds like one plan, in the singular, which will be read by almost all as a national (or even world) plan, not diverse local plans.

It has become endemic to discussions such as these to speak of what "we" need, with the tacit assumption being what the nation needs and must organize nationally. The occasional, ever more rare, objection might be met with some such rebuttal as "this is too important to be left to the local governments."

I recommend actively phrasing one's recommendations to counteract this tendency.

Wriggly,

That is a very fair comment and one that I will take on board. Thank you.

Chris.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Then neither of you have actually read The Capital Spillway Trust Proposal.

What's your take, if I may ask, on Phillip Blond, author of an upcoming book Red Tory, director of the think tank ResPublica, and presently on a speaking tour in the United States. His proposals for community investment sound to me like your proposals, but I say that having only superficially considered either his or your work.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

otoh, government employment has been very dependent on the stimulus. and the stimulus has ended.

Not quite true. Stimulus funds support government employment until October 2012 in most cases. I think the real hit will be in government employment will be in Federal fiscal year 2013 - that is, unless appropriations bills grow to pick up some of the slack.

[jtabeb]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Yes, massive. A substantial proportion of employed Americans receive their pay directly or indirectly (such as via contracts or services thereto) from the Federal government. Just repealing the income tax would put millions of accountants and lawyers and tax preparers out of business.

It is better in my view to send subsistence checks to each citizen, regardless of their circumstance or income, than to involve the Federal government in a vast arsenal of detail. Heaven forbid we have the Federal government devising "a detailed plan to invest new equity capital back into new jobs in each and every local community."

Ha! Massive unemployment! (You ain't seen NOTHING, yet!!)

[vinoveri]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

ZeroHedge humor ... but with elements of what I have feared all along as to how this can play out for a very very long time as long as the CB and govs conspire/collude and the CONfidence of the duped citizenry is kept alive (e.g. via the equity markets and nanny state promises)

Gave me a chuckle as well as a shiver of frustration ..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mar...-march-23-2015

Market Update: March 23, 2015



Submitted by Chindit13
Market Update 23 March 2015
The DOW rebounded from a crushing six point opening sell off to close the day at 21,626, up 43 points for the day. The rebound came after there were reports, later denied, that European officials are working on a bailout for EU member Greece. Greece has been in a state of near suspended animation since debt woes struck the country in early 2010, though strikes have been averted through the daily airing on government controlled television of an Anthony Quinn film extravaganza.
It was the DOW’s 722nd consecutive positive close, as well as the 217th straight positive Monday close. The strongest sectors were, as has been the case for the last half decade, consumer retail, banks, homebuilders, and specialty coffee companies. Key movers were Sears Holdings, whose stocked jumped after reports surfaced that billionaire Ed Lampert was increasing his stake in the retailer to just above 100%, and KBHomes, who reported their 63rd consecutive smaller than expected quarterly loss. Overall volume was somewhat light at just under five thousand shares. There were 4,658 new highs, no new lows, with 2852 counters unchanged. 3788 companies showed no volume whatsoever, which independent market commentator Dennis Kneale was quick to point out “indicates the shares are held by strong hands“.
The market also received a small boost from influential market startegist Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs-Wells Fargo-Bank of America Advisors, who said that she believes the market is 13.5% undervalued.
Offsetting this somewhat were comments by perennial bear Robert Prechter, who advised clients to go 10,350% short in preparation for the arrival of P3. Mr. Prechter was interviewed by Bloomberg Fox Business News reporter Charles Gasparino from Prechter’s suite at the Bellevue Institute for the Perpetually Pessimistic. The two later dined together at Elaines.
In economic data, the market was buoyed by a better than expected 100% increase in sales of existing homes, though some market watchers argued the data was only cause for cautious optimism rather than outright euphoria, coming as it did after last month’s nationwide sales of that single home in the suddenly chic downtown area of Detroit. The market awaits Friday’s release of the BLS monthly employment figures, where market consensus calls for a better than expected number. Last month’s figures are expected to be revised down, as they have been every single month since the fall of 2009, though economist Robert Barbera donwplayed this anticipated revision, reminding the market that labor is a lagging indicator and that unemployment of 36% means that 64% of the labor force is gainfully employed. Mr. Barbera’s models show labor bottoming within the next few months.
Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve released its latest balance sheet today, showing that total assets stand just below $47 trillion. Among the key month-to-month changes, the Fed increased its holdings of Hong Kong mortgaged backed securities, and slightly reduced its holding of Icelandic Government debt. Other key items highlighted included a slight increase in the holdings of Maiden Lane LXVII, the vehicle formed to support Kenyan real estate prices after Somali pirates, stung by the total collapse of world trade, could no longer make payments on their Mombasa properties.
In other markets, gold fell $8 to close at $1097. Gold has been in a tight range of approximately $1090 to $1135 for five years. Two noted gold experts, Jim Sinclair and Gordon Gekko, reiterated their call to BUY GOLD NOW!
In a related market story, former Zero Hedge founder Tyler Durden lost yet another appeal against the contempt of court charge that has kept him confined in a Federal lockup since late 2010. Mr. Durden, who reportedly suffers from a multiple personality disorder, was charged with contempt for failing to reveal his source for an article he wrote detailing the Federal Reserves acceptance of Pets.com stock and Russian Czarist Bonds as collateral at the Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Fed Chairmen in Perpetuity Ben Bernanke has yet to comment on the allegations, other than to say he’ll look into it. Representative Ron Paul added that he will hold Bernanke to it.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Ha! Massive unemployment! (You ain't seen NOTHING, yet!!)

Well, my "massive" unemployment scenario involved the U.S. Federal Government voluntarily downsizing itself by half or three quarters. That ain't going to happen.

Your "massive" unemployment scenario is a replay of the Weimar Republic of Germany in the 1920's, well known for it's hyperinflation.

I do not expect that scenario to play out now in the United States either, though I'm certainly hedging that call. I don't expect it because the United States has other resources at its disposal to force its way out of that corner. The Weimar Republic was weak, having lost the Great War and owing immense reparations. Once it started swirling down the drain hole, it lacked a means to stop the decline. The United States has immense resources, some of which are not honorable. She has been the supreme victor of the last several Great Wars. Her military, intelligence, resource and economic resources are immense.

It may get ugly, really ugly. But the Weimar Republic it is not.

Imagine what the Weimar Republic would have been like, had it already built up a military equal to the rest of the world's forces combined, and were it already led by leaders as corrupt as those who led Germany a decade later, and had it already held all of the European continent.

Ugly.

The alternative to be hoped for is a Bretton Woods III in which the Dollar's reserve status is retired and U.S. Treasury debt devalued, in exchange for some new arrangement using some combination of the Euro, Yuan, SDR's, gold, oil and/or whatever.

[LargoWinch]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

Wriggly,

That is a very fair comment and one that I will take on board. Thank you.

Chris.

TPC, is a master at "smoothness".

Watching and learning from the Great North. ;)

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Bucking Bronco Job Market – Part I: Unemployment by industry - Eric Janszen

TPC, is a master at "smoothness".

Watching and learning from the Great North. ;)

I quite agree. Indeed, his last request, asking me to compare Red Toryism to my own proposals for The capital Spillway Trust had me hitting the sack at ten past One this morning and wide awake at twenty past five...:eek: But it is Budget Day here in the UK and you will all have to wait, perhaps for a couple of days while I toast some ideas about how to respond to his challenge.