On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

[Guest]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

This is my very first post on I-Tulip - made with considerable trepidation and respect for those within this community - as I've read many very high caliber contributors here for the past year. My reply is to Tet - I believe you'll have to abide, in a very stark way, with having been demonstrably wrong on the topic of the peak and rapid decline of world oil production. The evidence will emerge quite clearly within the next five very short years. Let events unfolding be our guide, and the arbiter of who has a grasp of the gravity and stark reality of this issue in advance.

[GRG55]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

...Peak Oil is a manmade scam get used to it, to much at stake for it not to be.

Hmmm... In addition to Cheney and W. let's see who else benefits and must be supporting the Peak Oil scam and consequent high petroleum prices:

• General Electric (sells nuclear, wind and solar products);
• Florida Power and Light (large wind power utility in USA);
• Duke Energy and Entergy (two big nuclear utilities);
• Peabody Coal (large coal producer in the USA & Australia);
• Cameco (world's largest uranium producer);
• Areva (French nuclear plant engineers and fuel processors);
• Archer Daniel Midland (big ethanol producer);
• XTO Energy (independent natural gas producer);
• TransOcean (offshore oil drilling services company);
• Nabors Drilling (onshore oil drilling services company);
• Iowa corn farmers (fuel trumps food and feed);
• Mosaic (large nitrogen fertilizer maker, needed for corn yields);
• John Deere (nothing runs like Deere's stock price);
• Toyota (maker of the Prius - car of the stars);
• Shimano (Japanese maker of bicycle components);
• Bajaj (Indian scooter manufacturer);
• US Congress (never ending fortress America farm subsidies);
• US Senate (more excuses for hearings at which to grandstand);
• Boone Pickens (energy hedge fund manager);
• Bill Gates (large Pacific Ethanol shareholder);
• Warren Buffett (owns railroads that haul ethanol and coal);
• Vladimir Putin ("Yes, I would be honored to head up Gazprom");
• Nigeria's MEND (who would fight if the stuff isn't worth anything?);
• Al Gore (famous film narrator -"The world really is listening to me!");
• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ("The world is listening to me too, Al!");
• Halliburton (intuitively obvious);
• General Dynamics (even more intuitively obvious)...

Yep, sure looks like a man-made, global-conspiracy scam to me too. I'm convinced...

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Hmmm... In addition to Cheney and W. let's see who else benefits and must be supporting the Peak Oil scam and consequent high petroleum prices:

• General Electric (sells nuclear, wind and solar products);
• Florida Power and Light (large wind power utility in USA);
• Duke Energy and Entergy (two big nuclear utilities);
• Peabody Coal (large coal producer in the USA & Australia);
• Cameco (world's largest uranium producer);
• Areva (French nuclear plant engineers and fuel processors);
• Archer Daniel Midland (big ethanol producer);
• XTO Energy (independent natural gas producer);
• TransOcean (offshore oil drilling services company);
• Nabors Drilling (onshore oil drilling services company);
• Iowa corn farmers (fuel trumps food and feed);
• Mosaic (large nitrogen fertilizer maker, needed for corn yields);
• John Deere (nothing runs like Deere's stock price);
• Toyota (maker of the Prius - car of the stars);
• Shimano (Japanese maker of bicycle components);
• Bajaj (Indian scooter manufacturer);
• US Congress (never ending fortress America farm subsidies);
• US Senate (more excuses for hearings at which to grandstand);
• Boone Pickens (energy hedge fund manager);
• Bill Gates (large Pacific Ethanol shareholder);
• Warren Buffett (owns railroads that haul ethanol and coal);
• Vladimir Putin ("Yes, I would be honored to head up Gazprom");
• Nigeria's MEND (who would fight if the stuff isn't worth anything?);
• Al Gore (famous film narrator -"The world really is listening to me!");
• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ("The world is listening to me too, Al!");
• Halliburton (intuitively obvious);
• General Dynamics (even more intuitively obvious)...

Yep, sure looks like a man-made, global-conspiracy scam to me too. I'm convinced...

You're kidding aren't you? How many Nuclear Power Plants were in the pipeline before the Iraq War? A handful at most, Iran had plans for three and that's about it. How many Nuclear Power Plants are in the pipeline today? China has fifty, Russia has twenty five, Iran has twenty and there's another twenty or so from the rest of the world. Is nuclear power a energy alternative or a currency alternative? Do you pay for nuclear energy with d0llars? Does the power plant itself cost d0llars?

Is the demand for natural gas and LNG higher with crude selling at $70 or with crude selling at $20? GAZPOM just became the largest company in the world, I can't imagine that Russia is complaining about this. Why is Germany & Russia building a $10 billion gas pipeline under the Baltic when they've got a perfectly good pipeline flowing through Polakistan? What currency do you suppose Polakistan charges Germany for Russia's Natural Gas? What is New Europe? What were these multi-colored revolutions all about? Democracy? LMAO

I realize you Peaksters like to explain what's going on in the world with the view that the world is once again running out of crude, meanwhile the world is at war with the Imperial Coin and trying it's best to do away with the D0llar Hegemon. Meanwhile Russia somehow is producing more oil not less, something I'm sure Matthew Simmons is currently tying to figure out how to explain Russia's rise in hydro-carbon production to his Peakster following. He was certainly hyping Russia's falling production as proof to his claim. Russian production up almost 4 million barrels per day in the last six years, not bad, you'd think a country that knew they were running out of crude would be saving the remaining drops for themselves.

[BlackVoid]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Yeah, Putin is conspiring with Cheney to fix the oil price. Haha.
Russia is still below peak production of the 80s.

And what is with Iraq? They could produce more, it is true, but what difference does it make to the theory? Iraq could delay the peak a few years at most - but in the light of current events this is unlikely.

UK - they are deliberately cutting back on production to kill their exports? Norway and Mexico doing the same? USA has declining since 1970, but it is just a conspiracy to ruin America by running up the national debt? LOL.

Russia is increasing production but due to increasing domestic production exports have actually have shrunk last year.

If big oil is behind this and Peak Oil is a bunk, then why do the oil companies DENY IT? Why does the main-stream media ignore it? Why is the Peak Oil movement is a grassroots movement of volunteers and retired geologists? Big oil could do better than that I am sure.

Germany and Russia are building the pipeline under the baltic, because there are new gas fields in the Barrents sea and they want to avoid going through problematic countries (Poland, Estonia). Of course, they will like their new role as energy suppliers/distributors of Europe.

Well, nothing makes me more sure of Peak Oil than the weak arguments of its debunkers.

But since you believe in abiotic oil, any argument is pointless.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Yeah, Putin is conspiring with Cheney to fix the oil price. Haha.
Russia is still below peak production of the 80s.

Bullshit. There was no Russia production figures for the 80's were there? Peaksters really should learn some geography and political sphere's of the world. Production figures in the 80's would be the Soviet Union wouldn't they? Includiung Central Asia back then. You certainly don't give a shit about lying your asses off. Russian production, as in actual Russian production are considerably higher than it was in the 80's.

And what is with Iraq? They could produce more, it is true, but what difference does it make to the theory? Iraq could delay the peak a few years at most - but in the light of current events this is unlikely.

LMAO, what difference does 1 or 2 million barrels per day make? You're kidding right? Are these barrels selling in Euros or through London and Wall Street in d0llars?

UK - they are deliberately cutting back on production to kill their exports? Norway and Mexico doing the same? USA has declining since 1970, but it is just a conspiracy to ruin America by running up the national debt? LOL.

Is Queen Liz making more or less money from the North Sea? I realize it's a simple question and yet somehow a very hard one for Peaksters to wrap their little brains around but is she making more or less money? Does King V out of Norway put more cash in his pocket at the end of every day pumping less oil than when he was pumping more oil? Does Queen Beatrix make more money or less money when she shuts down Royal Dutch Shells Nigerian output? Do you need to see BP and RDS stock charts for the last five years, does that help or do you have as much trouble reading stock charts as you do reading production figures?

Russia is increasing production but due to increasing domestic production exports have actually have shrunk last year.

Wrong Production just to China alone is growing well over 30%.

If big oil is behind this and Peak Oil is a bunk, then why do the oil companies DENY IT? Why does the main-stream media ignore it? Why is the Peak Oil movement is a grassroots movement of volunteers and retired geologists? Big oil could do better than that I am sure.

If Big Oil told people the sky was blue people would think it wasn't.

Germany and Russia are building the pipeline under the baltic, because there are new gas fields in the Barrents sea and they want to avoid going through problematic countries (Poland, Estonia). Of course, they will like their new role as energy suppliers/distributors of Europe.

What currency do you suppose the pipeline under the Baltic will sell Natural gas in? You obviously don't get it, but Peaksters some how never do.

Well, nothing makes me more sure of Peak Oil than the weak arguments of its debunkers.

Right.

But since you believe in abiotic oil, any argument is pointless.

Certainly oil's formation from Dino goo explained with cartoons is a much better theory. LMAO

[Guest]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Tet - with all due and sincere respect to you, for your many excellent posts - which I've been following with interest for the past year as you seek out less than obvious truths - at which real and posted oil price will you consent to jettison the conspiracy theories regarding "vapid claiims of oil scarcity" and embrace an oil scarcity "plausibility"? $120 per barrel? $150 per barrel? $200 per barrel? - When these numbers become painfully apparent (shockingly soon), theories regarding "vested interests artificially cajoling the price of oil ever upwards may become increasingly strained.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Tet - with all due and sincere respect to you, for your many excellent posts - which I've been following with interest for the past year as you seek out less than obvious truths - at which real and posted oil price will you consent to jettison the conspiracy theories regarding "vapid claiims of oil scarcity" and embrace an oil scarcity "plausibility"? $120 per barrel? $150 per barrel? $200 per barrel?

An interesting question, I was just looking for some long term oil charts today and all I found was three year charts. Blow-off tops are a hard number to come up with so the price would need to be sustained for several months before I'd say maybe we're running out of oil. I would think one of the three numbers you posted would do it. I was a Peakster back in 2000 all the way until about 2003, so there's hope for you as well you know. Made a lot of money in a Putnam Global Resource Fund thanks to being a Peakster, probably should have held on to it longer than I did as well. It does amaze me how long some of these things last before gravity eventually takes over and gravity always takes over. Sometimes the Wall Street scams involves lots and lots of chairs and sometimes only a few.

- When these numbers become painfully apparent (shockingly soon), theories regarding "vested interests artificially cajoling the price of oil ever upwards may become increasingly strained.

Regardless of oil peaking or not peaking it is going to be a very interesting couple of years we have coming up. The real question to be asking is did the D0llar Peak back and 2001 or does Uncle Buck return from the dead? For myself I think Uncle Buck makes another comeback. Thanks for the kind words.

[GRG55]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

...I was a Peakster back in 2000 all the way until about 2003...It does amaze me how long some of these things last before gravity eventually takes over and gravity always takes over. Sometimes the Wall Street scams involves lots and lots of chairs and sometimes only a few...Regardless of oil peaking or not peaking it is going to be a very interesting couple of years we have coming up...

Tet: You accused me of being a "Peakster" - presumably because I tried to offer up some counter arguments to your views? Actually I struggle to emulate truly successful investors, who I notice tend to be fiercely agnostic as they industriously root around uncovering and verifying facts and objectively trying to piece together complex interrelationships. I cannot point to a better example of this than Eric Janszen. Recognizing that Eric and his team are not obligated to devote their time to keeping iTulip live, the opportunity to contribute and learn from all of you in this community is, for me, a highly valued privilege.

As a former Peakster you will be able to appreciate both sides of this debate better than most. Be assured I am "fiercely agnostic" about Peak Oil and would offer up to the community as food for thought:

• There is no shortage of global oil resource or potential reserves from all sources. Generally the lowest quality sources contain the most resources. (source: IEA, CERA, Wood MacKenzie, US Geological Survey, Canadian Geological Survey);
• Annual increases in global oil consumption in each of the past 5 years are measurably higher than any 5 yr m.a. of the previous 26 years, despite much lower nominal prices during most of that time (data source: IEA, BP Review, calcs my own);
• From the peak in the early 1980's global petroleum exploration and development activity utterly collapsed for about 20 years (source: Baker Hughes drilling and service rig reports);
• The global petroleum industry is currently short of trained and experienced people (source: Schlumberger and Baker Hughes Q1 2007 conference calls, personal discussions with industry insiders);
• Currently human, materials and financial resources are biased to executing a large number of global "super-projects" bringing on new production sources, at the expense of maintaining existing production sources (source: Schlumberger and Baker Hughes Q1 conference calls, personal discussions);
• Demand and consumption are not the same thing. We can't burn "virtual barrels" - global consumption won't ever exceed global supply from production + inventory changes (no matter what the IEA long-term demand forecasts imply).
• Unlike base metals and steel, new production of petroleum does not compete with "recycled scrap" sources, no matter what the price - ergo price behaviour and response (short and long-term) to same may be different for oil compared to, say, copper.
• Elsewhere on the iTulip site Eric Janszen articulates far better than I ever could the difficulties of liquid transportation fuel substitution. Those postings (and everything else on the iTulip site) should be required reading (sorry for preaching to the iChoir).
• Whether due to deliberate manipulation, security issues, natural declines, lack of experienced human resources, corrupt management, incompetent politicians or a myriad of other reasons, current demand (not consumption!) appears to be exceeding current ability to increase supply.
• The market is doing what it always does - rationing using short-term price movements.
• Politicians of all stripes, everywhere, are doing what they always do - modifying and manipulating the markets to their advantage or benefit.
• If one defines a commodity price "bubble" as a 2-sigma upward deviation from the 50 year moving average (admittedly a highly subjective reference), oil is in a bubble.
• History is not on the side of the Peakers - every previous supply related price increase resulted in a glut and price reversion to, or below, the long term m.a. No exceptions.
• It may be different this time - dangerous words always - however a growing number of industry participants that I know scattered all over the world, in firms large and small, are telling me remarkably similar stories about the "production treadmill" their firms are on. In the past few years many have been unable to materially increase net output no matter how much they increase their investment budgets and drilling. Worse still, an increasing number that work for publicly traded firms tell me their firms are buying back stock so they can show production-per-share increases to keep equity markets happy. To me this implies growing opportunity limitations. This also implies the sector is about to experience another M&A cycle - and this one may exceed the one that ushered in the creation of the "super-majors". Perversely, this M&A cycle may result in the break-up of some larger players.
• If it is different this time, we won't know with absolute certainty until we look back on it. As others have posted on this site, only time will tell. Here is where agnostic objectivity starts to break down - I believe that neither side of this debate can, today, definitively prove that global petroleum production is or isn't at, or near, a peak. There are simply too many data uncertainties, and too many other unpredictable factors that govern the outcome. I appreciate there are many others on both sides of this debate, armed with many good facts and statistics, that feel quite certain of the outcome. I respect and listen to their views, but also choose for now to respectfully disagree with them.

For those in the community, like me, who risk some of their hard earned capital investing in the petroleum sector I hope the above may be of some value as we navigate through the next few years. ;)

[jk]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

grg55, thank you for your posts.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Tet: You accused me of being a "Peakster" - For those in the community, like me, who risk some of their hard earned capital investing in the petroleum sector I hope the above may be of some value as we navigate through the next few years. ;)

My appologies, your reply is right up there with one of the best posts I've ever read at this forum.

For those in the community, like me, who risk some of their hard earned capital investing in the petroleum sector I hope the above may be of some value as we navigate through the next few years.

You spent a lot of time on your post, this requires me to do the same. You've got my head spinning, but unfortunately I'm getting ready to head out of town. Tuesday or Wednesday I'll get back to this on this thread. Your reply rates about a three to four hour reply on my end and I don't have the time at the moment. After reading your post zero sum games is where my repy was headed this morning, I had about a paragraph before the day got the best of me.

Knowing when to exit the bubble is a work in progress for me, I'd be interested in reading about your thoughts on that. Getting in on the bubble is where I'm at right now and it would appear like there is one in the making. You're still in the bubble I bailed out on, good for you, knowing what cards you're holding is the only way to walk away from the casino with their money. I think maybe I'm understanding your question regarding when a doubting nanny like myself would consider being wrong regarding Peak Oil. Off the cuff, I'd say your midrange number, I'm still looking for a longterm chart in order to let you know what the chart would say. Only you know how much you've made, so I'm not sure when you want to pull the trigger. I would think soon, winter's over and Russia's oil is going to start hitting the market. But as you asked, tops are a hell of a lot harder to call than bottoms. Good luck.

[Guest]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Hats off to GRG55 for a "reality check"summary. I would however submit that what will appear to be the feared "blowoff top" in this energy bull market may only be a wild, gut-wrenching 2-3-4- year correction. Ten years out further - we'll be in a whole new world - Industrialized nations will be confronting energy issues which they have not yet previously experienced, not only in living memory, but in that of generations.

For investors, this 200 year paradigm change may be too big to ride out, given that it's thrashing coils could cut both ways deeper than we have means to confront - but in terms of history, the world may have turned a 300 year chapter at the end of a breathtakingly short span of time.

I submit the entire sequence plays out within the next twenty years. Add another five years for a prudent margin of error. The serious distress should appear far sooner.

You'd think it's outliers would be squarely in the news, but they are nowhere to be seen yet.

[akrowne]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Russia is swimming in oil, Peak Oil has been proven to be nothing but a scam.

LOL! Have you checked the output of any country besides Russia?

The failure of the Soviets to optimally extract Russia's natural resources, including oil, has simply turned into a late blessing.

[bill]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Bill: If I understand you correctly you think the Chinese do not have an interest to scour the globe for their resource needs, and would prefer teh Japanese do it for them? You need to spend a little time in the places I've been living/working the past few years. In Kazakhstan they were in early and control much of the choice assets now. In the Arabian Gulf they have been muscling aside the Japanese who have been losing some of their long standing JV assets (e.g. Kuwait, Saudi neutral zone). It's quite clear that sub-Saharan Africa is going to be developed by the Chinese, not the nationals who for the most part just want to be paid handsomely so they can buy a nicer flat in Mayfair. I have first-hand experience dealing with the Chinese presence in all three of these locations. THey aren't going home any time soon.

Look's like Japan secures uranium with Westinghouse deal.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...stinghouse.php


Japan's Toshiba talking with Kazakh state company about Westinghouse shares

The Associated Press
Published: July 9, 2007

TOKYO: Japanese electronics maker Toshiba Corp. said it is discussing the possibility of selling a stake in its U.S. unit, nuclear reactor manufacturer Westinghouse Electric Co., to a Kazakh state-owned resource company.
Toshiba and the Kazakh company Kazatomprom are discussing details of a possible transaction, a Toshiba spokesman said Monday, but he declined to provide further details.
Toshiba said in a press release over the weekend it aims to form a partnership with Kazatomprom to secure uranium supplies. Kazakhstan has the world's second-largest uranium reserves after Australia.
The Tokyo-based company expects uranium supply conditions to become tight as demand for nuclear plants rises in China and the U.S. to meet growing energy needs and to cut carbon emissions from fossil fuels.
Toshiba holds a 77 percent stake in Monroeville, Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse, which it bought from the U.K.'s British Nuclear Fuels PLC last year for US$4.2 billion (€3.1 billion).
The Shaw Group Inc. of the U.S. owns 20 percent of Westinghouse and Japanese heavy machinery maker IHI Corp. owns 3 percent.

The Nikkei reported over the weekend that Toshiba agreed to see a 10 percent stake in Westinghouse to Kazatomprom for around 60 billion yen (US$487 million; €358 million).

[metalman]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Russia suspends arms control pact

Russia says that the CFE treaty has become "meaningless"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suspended the application of a key Cold War arms control treaty.

Mr Putin signed a decree citing "exceptional circumstances" affecting security as the reason for the move.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898690.stm

[bill]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...rol-Treaty.php

Top Russian officials including Sergei Ivanov, a first deputy prime minister and former defense minister, have repeatedly complained that although Russia's defense budget was cut drastically after the Cold War, the United States and its NATO allies have maintained a high rate of military spending. This contradicted the spirit and intent of arms controls treaties, officials said.
They also pointed out that Russia's military budget is now 25 times smaller than that of the nations making up NATO, amounting to only 2.8 percent of the country's gross national product.

Look’s like Russia