On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

[BlackVoid]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Russia needs Europe. Europe needs Russia. The USA has to prevent this alliance - this has been the Anglo- American strategy for a long time.

Russia is a great market and investment opportunity for western Europe. Cheap labor for the EU much closer than China. Resources closer than the Middle-East. Having an economy largely based on natural resources might have been a weak position in the past but this is changing fast. Most natural resources are in an accelerating depletion stage (oil, copper, platinum, nickel, etc...).
Europe might complain about dependency on Russia for energy but there is not much they can do about it. There are no Russian pipelines going east to China (as of now). The planned pipeline was recently delayed for LACK of oil (Peak Oil anyone?).
China-Russia alliance is a forced alliance for Russia.

These are interesting times, things may change quickly. Financial bubble all over the world, oil depleting, wars cannot be won. This is a new era.

[BlackVoid]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Norway is the world's third largest exporter of crude oil, quite next to Central and Western Europe (less than 400 km to Germany, for example). Lybia can provide energy, same as Nigeria and even the Middle East. Where is the problem for Europe? The problem is to get the energy to the US. From a geoperspective Europe has quite a good choice.

Norway oil production is dropping fast. UK oil production is dropping fast. There is speculation that even Saudi oil production is dropping - in fact it is dropping at an alarming pace, but they are telling us that it is all voluntary.
The majority of oil producing countries have their production falling.
At the same time, Chinese oil imports have grown 30% last year, making China the 2nd largest importer. OECD crude stocks are at a record low. US gasoline prices are at a record high. We are one event (a new war, pipeline bombing, hurricane) away from a major oil-price shock.

Look at these charts:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2550

[jk]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Norway is the world's third largest exporter of crude oil, quite next to Central and Western Europe (less than 400 km to Germany, for example). Lybia can provide energy, same as Nigeria and even the Middle East. Where is the problem for Europe? The problem is to get the energy to the US. From a geoperspective Europe has quite a good choice.

europe is heavily dependent on russian gas for winter heating. there aren't enough lng facilities to provide alternatives.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Russia needs Europe. Europe needs Russia. The USA has to prevent this alliance - this has been the Anglo- American strategy for a long time.

Russia is a great market and investment opportunity for western Europe. Cheap labor for the EU much closer than China. Resources closer than the Middle-East. Having an economy largely based on natural resources might have been a weak position in the past but this is changing fast. Most natural resources are in an accelerating depletion stage (oil, copper, platinum, nickel, etc...).
Europe might complain about dependency on Russia for energy but there is not much they can do about it. There are no Russian pipelines going east to China (as of now). The planned pipeline was recently delayed for LACK of oil (Peak Oil anyone?).
China-Russia alliance is a forced alliance for Russia.

These are interesting times, things may change quickly. Financial bubble all over the world, oil depleting, wars cannot be won. This is a new era.

You seem to have this backwards, the Anglo Empire has always tried to prevent Russia uniting with Asia not uniting with Europe. Russian pipeline to China is ahead of schedule not behind, Russian export of crude to China is 30% more than last year. Korea just had there first cross border train transit in 50-years and South Korea will start exporting goods to Europe via the Siberian Railroad later this year, plus South Korea will start importing Russian oil via the Siberian railroad about the same time. Russia is swimming in oil, Peak Oil has been proven to be nothing but a scam.

[GRG55]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Recently Alfa Bank (apparently Russia's largest bank) issued a research report from their London office concluding that, under the current fiscal regime, new capex investment in Russian oil is negative IRR. That may better explain the flat production in Russia recently. Increasing domestic consumption will reduce aggregate exports unless this situation changes.

[Andreuccio]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Peak Oil has been proven to be nothing but a scam.

By whom? Do you have one or more links for further reading? Thanks.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

By whom? Do you have one or more links for further reading? Thanks.

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/peakoilindex.shtml

Lot's of links here, it's been several years since I've looked for any so I can't say if these are any good. I just look at the upstream oil investment and notice there's still a lot of relatively cheap oil off of Mexico's coast and no investment being made to grab it. Oil is going rapidly off line due to man made events, Iraq, US handling of Katrina/Rita, Nigeria, recent OPEC production decisions, Venezuela union oil strike, Sudan civil war, all have suffered from manmade production cuts. Other countries that are producing less quantity, are still making more revenue, Britain, Norway, Mexico, Kuwait, Suadi's. Now if someone told me I could make more by working less I'd sign up for that. This is literally millions of barrels per day of manmade production cuts, well over a million just from Iraq alone.

[BlackVoid]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

Peak Oil proven a scam??? By whom? Oil is a finite natural resource, even the CERA report (that denies Peak Oil) shows a peak in oil production. The only thing that is questiones is the timing.
Look at this chart.
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1....aspx?CID=8444

The timing and consequences can be argued, the theory itself is proven.

[BlackVoid]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

"This is a big story. It's an attempt by the Illuminati, working through their number one propaganda production factory, .... to create the illusion that the world is rapidly running out of oil."

Very convincing. Peak Oil is only a conspiracy by the Illuminati. :p

True, there are "above ground factors", but what does that change?
Take a look at Mexico oil production, North Sea production, US production. If there is so much cheap oil out there, why is the price so high? Why is production stagnating?
http://www.theoildrum.com/ - this site has complex scientific analysis on the subject.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

"This is a big story. It's an attempt by the Illuminati, working through their number one propaganda production factory, .... to create the illusion that the world is rapidly running out of oil."

Very convincing. Peak Oil is only a conspiracy by the Illuminati. :p

True, there are "above ground factors", but what does that change?
Take a look at Mexico oil production, North Sea production, US production. If there is so much cheap oil out there, why is the price so high? Why is production stagnating?
http://www.theoildrum.com/ - this site has complex scientific analysis on the subject.

LMAO The suggestion that petroleum might have arisen from some transformation of squashed fish or biological detritus is surely the silliest notion. 85-million barrels per day, everyday is what the world needs, not a drop more, not a drop less, thank g_d we've knocked Iraq's oil production back 35-years or we'd have a few million extra barrels floating around. How do you explain Iraq's production?

Good thing you figured this all out for yourself and bought the Peak Oil Bag early, heaven knows oil and Exxon stock will never be selling for $30 again, not in a million years. Bagholders like yourself are a very odd lot indeed.

[Andreuccio]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

I confess to not having time to read all the links and info on that site, but the basic arguement seems to be that where OPEC was unable to maintain production quotas more or less in the open, a larger group consisting of all the OPEC countries, Britian, Norway, Mexico, Russia, all the major oil companies, The US government, Wall Street, and, uh, the Illuminati, are all involved in a secret conspiracy that has so far been highly successful in capping oil production and maintaining high prices. Is that about right?

I understand, and agree with, your point that it's in each of their interests to limit production, since then they can effectively get paid more for doing less. But it seems unlikely that a conspiracy with this many members would succeed.

To me, though, both as an investor and as a consumer, the net effect is the same. Whether there's an actual shortage, or an artificial one created by all these players, prices are rising, so I need to take that into account when making my decisions.

[GRG55]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

I just look at the upstream oil investment and notice there's still a lot of relatively cheap oil off of Mexico's coast and no investment being made to grab it... Oil is going rapidly off line due to man made events. This is literally millions of barrels per day of manmade production cuts, well over a million just from Iraq alone.

The increasingly shrill "peak oil" debate seems to be dominated by two extreme views - "it's a scam" vs "we're all doomed". Proponents of both positions advance a few plausible sounding arguments, but the "organized-grand-global-conspiracy-to-impair-oil-supply" overtone in many of these links isn't one of them.

Manmade production cuts are nothing new. Long before OPEC the Texas Railroad Commission allocated quotas. Throughout its short history oil has always been a politically charged and politically priced commodity. The fact that there may (may!) still be some "relatively cheap oil" based on actual finding and development costs is largely irrelevant - oil has always gone through extended periods where it is priced well above, and at other times, well below the marginal F&D cost of adding the next barrel. The manmade political factors that influence oil prices may change with the seasons but for more than 100 years they've been a constant in modifying the "real cost". Today's admittedly lengthy list of "manmade" factors is no more artificial in terms of its influence on price and supply than in the past. Get used to it, and pray that the industry responds the same way it always has during past price cycle highs - by creating a glut.

[Tet]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

The increasingly shrill "peak oil" debate seems to be dominated by two extreme views - "it's a scam" vs "we're all doomed". Proponents of both positions advance a few plausible sounding arguments, but the "organized-grand-global-conspiracy-to-impair-oil-supply" overtone in many of these links isn't one of them.

Manmade production cuts are nothing new. Long before OPEC the Texas Railroad Commission allocated quotas. Throughout its short history oil has always been a politically charged and politically priced commodity. The fact that there may (may!) still be some "relatively cheap oil" based on actual finding and development costs is largely irrelevant - oil has always gone through extended periods where it is priced well above, and at other times, well below the marginal F&D cost of adding the next barrel. The manmade political factors that influence oil prices may change with the seasons but for more than 100 years they've been a constant in modifying the "real cost". Today's admittedly lengthy list of "manmade" factors is no more artificial in terms of its influence on price and supply than in the past. Get used to it, and pray that the industry responds the same way it always has during past price cycle highs - by creating a glut.

LMAO, you explain a war against an innocent country spending hundreds of billions of the nations treasury and sacrificing the blood of our young as what then? A million and a half barrels per day of production gone from Iraq, I'm supposed to ignore this? 3 million barrels per day selling in Euros before now selling in d0llars is not just a production cut, it's pricing control. Yes lets ignore the 400-pound gorilla in the room and talk about something else. Peak Oil is a manmade scam get used to it, to much at stake for it not to be.

[Moe_Gamble]

Henry Groppe on the topic

http://lobg2.blogspot.com/2007/04/he...e-got-oil.html

I'm sure we all agree that the current gasoline spikes are due to man-made supply constraints. But the technical data on peak oil is strong. It has been presented ad infinitum by Matt Simmons, the oildrum.com, and the rest (typical crusaders, engaged in an admirable but hopeless fight--they should read Dmitri Orlov for their own sanity). I have been unable to find any counter-arguments that actually address the technical issues. The counter-arguments are based either on faith, primarily faith in technology, or the theories of kooks (oil as a renewable resource). By the way, any site that links to that stuff should automatically be considered suspect.

Henry Groppe (respected for accurate oil price predictions for many decades) believes in peak oil. Back in 2005 he was predicting the price of oil would stay at $55 - $65 for about a decade. He said then that he believed we'd hit peak around 2006, but that prices would be contained by relatively easy conservation measures in the developing world. (He said that the easy conservation measures had already been taken in the U.S.)

Now he is no longer predicting that prices will stay at $55 - $65, because the easy conservation measures have already been taken and worldwide demand continues to rise. He now says that he doesn't know what price will be sufficient to lower demand.

I find it hard to believe the total-collapse scenarios, at least for the near term, but as Orlov points out, it would have been hard to believe in 1985 what was coming to the Soviet Union.

I find it easy to believe that it will play a role in the coming crisis.

[Moe_Gamble]

Re: On Russia's Federal Customs Service $22.5B suit against the Bank of New York

No, peak oil is real, and so is pricing control. They are not mutually exclusive.

Great article on Darfur and the China/U.S. cold war, by the way.