Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

[Spartacus]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to reply to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

Judging from the number of replies, I am probably not the only one who felt this piece was a little weak.

[Ann]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to rely to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

The signal to noise ratio has improved.

The cast at iTulip is ever-changing, as are our troubled times.

This article is more pissy than any I recall reading.

Keep up the good fight.

[Guest]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Spartacus - Just my two cents, but if you were any more arch in your (uncannily infallible!) identification of all the knee jerk time-wasters among us, you'd be bending over into a pretzel.

one must think about this article more than some others - knee jerk responses are less called for

And

some of the knee jerks, the high-volume (number of posts and length of posts) posters are no longer with us

They were not with me for a long time (blessed be the holy ignore-list) so I avoided much noise, but of course lots of people felt they had to rely to those, so I couldn't avoid the reply-noise.

but I think we're finally seeing the effect of their absence. Less noise. Some high volume responders like BART are definitely missed, though.

[mickeyc21]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

What?!
Now we WONT have a collapsing dollar and hyperinflation?! Oh.My.God.
The consistency of the thesis here is non existent.
Any minute now you'll say we are experiencing deflation and pass that off as a long term view. Although I'm sure it will be called "the disinflationary environment we have long called for" to fool the more dim witted of your readers.
You are welcome to change your mind but some of your readers have also had a successful business background and can smell BS from a mile.
Please stop with the "inflation is showing up in the quality of food and restaurant meals". This is the most bizarre assertion I have ever heard regarding inflation and it is also the opposite of what is occurring. Do you ever shop? Every store in the country is having the equivalent of a going out of business sale. The prices on literally every item I can think of is savagely discounted and I have yet to see ONE credible story of reduced quality from yourself or an Itulip member.

[FRED]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

What?!
Now we WONT have a collapsing dollar and hyperinflation?! Oh.My.God.
The consistency of the thesis here is non existent.
Any minute now you'll say we are experiencing deflation and pass that off as a long term view. Although I'm sure it will be called "the disinflationary environment we have long called for" to fool the more dim witted of your readers.
You are welcome to change your mind but some of your readers have also had a successful business background and can smell BS from a mile.

We have never, ever, even once forecast hyperinflation. High inflation, yes. Hyperinflation, never. Collapsing dollar? Never. Falling dollar, repeatedly since 1998.

Please stop with the "inflation is showing up in the quality of food and restaurant meals". This is the most bizarre assertion I have ever heard regarding inflation and it is also the opposite of what is occurring. Do you ever shop? Every store in the country is having the equivalent of a going out of business sale. The prices on literally every item I can think of is savagely discounted and I have yet to see ONE credible story of reduced quality from yourself or an Itulip member.

There is an entire thread documenting instances of this type of inflation here: Inflation snapshots: December 2009

[goadam1]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

We have never, ever, even once forecast hyperinflation. High inflation, yes. Hyperinflation, never. Collapsing dollar? Never. Falling dollar, repeatedly since 1998.



There is an entire thread documenting instances of this type of inflation here: Inflation snapshots: December 2009

You have to admit there is a bit of confusing sheepishness in this one.

1. Are you admitting to a bit of American exceptionalism?

2. Are making a call that re-inflation will work at least until the next Presidential cycle?

3. Is Ka-poom seeming less valid to you guys after this re-inflation cycle? Would Ka-poom need another couple of cycles to really happen? Or is Ka-poom just a variation on the bubble cycle?

I for one think there is value to be found at the bottom of cycles, when others panic. But as an Ituliper I got caught up in the Ka-poom and first bounce ideas. You guys seem to be backing away from those calls but in a muddled manner. Or do I have it wrong?

I'll agree that a black swan debt crisis hangs over all of us and 2012 to 2013 is as good a call for another bubble top. But traveling from your 2009 year end wrap up to this post I am a bit lost.

[jk]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

You have to admit there is a bit of confusing sheepishness in this one.

1. Are you admitting to a bit of American exceptionalism?

2. Are making a call that re-inflation will work at least until the next Presidential cycle?

3. Is Ka-poom seeming less valid to you guys after this re-inflation cycle? Would Ka-poom need another couple of cycles to really happen? Or is Ka-poom just a variation on the bubble cycle?

I for one think there is value to be found at the bottom of cycles, when others panic. But as an Ituliper I got caught up in the Ka-poom and first bounce ideas. You guys seem to be backing away from those calls but in a muddled manner. Or do I have it wrong?

I'll agree that a black swan debt crisis hangs over all of us and 2012 to 2013 is as good a call for another bubble top. But traveling from your 2009 year end wrap up to this post I am a bit lost.

fwiw, my read is that kapoom is still possible at any time, but is now less likely to be the mechanism that triggers a sharp decline in the dollar. the more likely scenario, pace ej, is a period of stagflation and dollar weakness, followed by an inflationary crisis and recession, triggering a faster devaluation of the dollar.

[goadam1]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

fwiw, my read is that kapoom is still possible at any time, but is now less likely to be the mechanism that triggers a sharp decline in the dollar. the more likely scenario, pace ej, is a period of stagflation and dollar weakness, followed by an inflationary crisis and recession, triggering a faster devaluation of the dollar.

Was Ka-poom really possible at this stage of the world and the global economy. It always seemed an outlier to me. A couple of more cycles, maybe?

But to go from ka-poom to essentially another bubble cycle with sovereign wealth as the bubble driver is a big shift. And if I were playing prognosticator, then I would be a little clearer on the change in concept. We were here, we thought it was going here, now we think it is going like this.

[jk]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Was Ka-poom really possible at this stage of the world and the global economy. It always seemed an outlier to me. A couple of more cycles, maybe?

But to go from ka-poom to essentially another bubble cycle with sovereign wealth as the bubble driver is a big shift. And if I were playing prognosticator, then I would be a little clearer on the change in concept. We were here, we thought it was going here, now we think it is going like this.

what do you see as "another bubble cycle"? i didn't read it that way. what is the asset class that will be the beneficiary of this bubble?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Was Ka-poom really possible at this stage of the world and the global economy. It always seemed an outlier to me. A couple of more cycles, maybe?

I tend to agree with you here.

My take is that the POOM in KaPOOM could happen in the U.S., but only after the U.S. Dollar has been demoted from it's status as the World Reserve Currency. Then we could have a Ka and a POOM, just like an oversized Argentina.

For now, it's KaPLOP, where PLOP (I just made that up) means the Dollar loses its Reserve status. I expect the PLOP sometime in 2010 to 2012. I expect that Americans will be put under more stress first, likely with multiple threats, so that they "accept" their diminished role in world financial affairs.

[Spartacus]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

from what I can see ka-poom is happening.

the ka- already happened -
1. the deflation scare that forced
2. the FED, treasury, congress, president to take extra ordinary measures which
3. prevented a run-away, self-reinforcing / recursive deflation

we're just waiting for
4. very high inflation, short of hyperinflation


IMHO Maybe we'll get another ka-
when Bernanke thinks he can raise rates and we get another deflation scare

add: If there were to be another "ka-" (or maybe several) the final "poom" will be much worse.

3. Is Ka-poom seeming less valid to you guys after this re-inflation cycle? Would Ka-poom need another couple of cycles to really happen? Or is Ka-poom just a variation on the bubble cycle?

[goadam1]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

what do you see as "another bubble cycle"? i didn't read it that way. what is the asset class that will be the beneficiary of this bubble?

Well, it' relative isn't it. EJ states we could be at s&p 700 but we are not, we are at a inflated or re-flated value. We will have to see what the nominal high for this cycle is. Plus my property is a little off it's bottom thanks to monetization and other fancy tools. Do we get growth? This article and a whole bunch of indicators say we will have growth. Will the growth exceed the debt needed to create it? Very doubtful. But the impact of not creating escape velocity is still to be determined. Meanwhile, there were a heck of a lot of bargains in stocks and bonds at the nominal lows during which we were discussing over shooting the mean, 20% unemployment and government implode

So I doubt the horrors of the next ka will be so scary either. The word won't end. People have faith and will to keep the system running. Physical gold is a nice way to keep money out of the game. But it isn't enough.

[jk]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Physical gold is a nice way to keep money out of the game. But it isn't enough.

i agree, and it's a bit of a conundrum, trying to figure a relatively safe way to play what looks to be a period of sluggish economic growth, tottering along on a diet of stimulus and extend-and-pretend debt. the best i've been able to come up with is energy and agriculture- commodities which can benefit from growth, can get me out of the dollar into real assets, and benefit from emerging markets in particular. my target allocations [i'm not there yet and might revise these before i am] are currently 35-40% pm's, 20%energy, 10%agriculture, 10% em's/globals/multinationals, with the balance of 20-25% still in cash to be used opportunistically. you?

[Mega]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

So EJ, your a "Bit negative" on the £............Spill the beans......will it go belly up?.........£1 = $1.......?

Oh do tell.
Mike

[MulaMan]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Gold is one of the few private assets left that you can own. Period.

It is called private property. America was built on it but the retards have destroyed the concept of private property in America.

The civilized world will move on without America - Americans will be shocked.

The U.S.S.R ended with a fizzle, not a bang. Unless you lived there.

The U.S.A with also end with a fizzle, not a bang. There will be an American "Putin" - a criminal class that takes over the country and becomes uber rich while the rest of America realizes thier human potential and becomes the 3rd world nation it already is.

America is filled with retards and so retarded they will be.

Life expectancy in the U.S.A. will equal that of "modern" Russia.

The best "investment" you can currently make is to obtain citizenship in a civilized country and have an escape plan.