Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

[LargoWinch]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Well Part - I was 7 pages - while Part II-IV were 57 pages

Yep, totals more than 20,000+ words folks.

That is what is considered a "book" nowadays.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I think you like it so much because EJ says gold is not a bubble. I liked that part as well.

Yep, I always enjoy that part; as they say: I have a "vested" interest a bit greater than some but certainly less than jtabeb (the smart one). ;)

[Jay]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

My take on the lack of replies is partly based on the realization by most reading it that we, the plebs, are locked into the asylum. The answer to the test is not likely a smoldering wreck of an economy and war, but a smoldering wreck of an economy and massive government intervention and no place to hide. What else is there to say? None of the solutions are pretty, they are all based on government getting bigger and intervening in a way that helps only those in the know and hurt everyone else. They will suck the overcapacity out of the system one way or the other, so of course it will be attepted in a way that increases government power and "stability."

[metalman]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

My take on the lack of replies is partly based on the realization by most reading it that we, the plebs, are locked into the asylum. The answer to the test is not likely a smoldering wreck of an economy and war, but a smoldering wreck of an economy and massive government intervention and no place to hide. What else is there to say? None of the solutions are pretty, they are all based on government getting bigger and intervening in a way that helps only those in the know and hurt everyone else. They will suck the overcapacity out of the system one way or the other, so of course it will be attepted in a way that increases government power and "stability."

thinking on this... so few responses... my take...

ej's record is good... not only the 'no deflation' vision... how the system works... or even the calls... the 2001 gold market 'buy & hold' call... got us out of the stock market bubbles in mar. 2000 & dec. 2007... called the housing bubble start in 2002 & finish in 2006... etc... but the nuance... the way it 'feels'... the long term unemployment... the angry & confused populace... the backlash at banksters... the new regulations & fees & taxes... the crappy food at restaurants (high costs/low demand)... & the way we'll adapt/respond.

he said we'll find excuses for our new poverty... call it 'downshifting' or whatever....

O'Toole: While every ounce of common sense I have agrees, emotions run strong. Being involved in foreclosures I have met many people struggling beyond reason to pay for a house they can't afford because being a homeowner is "who they are,” and the alternative, renting, is a failure they simply cannot bear. I'd go so far as to say it’s a fate worse than death to some. I know this sounds dramatic but no matter how hard the upcoming lesson might be, I doubt it will be learned.
Janszen:Yes, you’re being too dramatic. One of my favorite positive features of U.S. culture is its creativity and adaptability. Remember the hippy movement? Its key features were anti-materialism and anti-consumerism. Flaunting wealth was very un-cool. The pursuit of wealth was considered boring and shallow. This was a convenient credo at a time when capitalism wasn’t doing very well and no one had much real income or credit to use to buy anything. Look for a new social movement that makes being downwardly mobile not only socially acceptable but cool, including renting versus owning. In fact, the movement may have already arrived in the concept of “downshifting” and will accelerate in the future. Many people will be forced to lower material expectations, but a whole social movement will support a move away from working 80 hours a week to pay the mortgage and I expect most people will be relieved, and will find themselves much happier with more time for friends, family and themselves. Psychologically the change won’t be as painful as you expect. As usual, you heard it here first!

April 12, 2006

ah, so many years ago... a million years ago when i think back to those days... the boom times.

so... when i read this, i swallow hard... because i think.. 'he's been right before... shit. it's going to get as bad as he says'

but i don't see that hopeful note any longer... but anger... the tone of the article... angry/pissed off. at who? at the perpetrators. he says... 'if it's foreseeable it's preventable'.

'look what our crazy oligarchs did to us! bastards!' :eek:

[Prazak]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Have to agree with Jay on this. It's a large body of data and analysis that in the end pulls together in one place threads and strands that most of us grasp, but which when swallowed in one sitting makes for depressing reading. Takes time to digest, then to process, then to mourn.

[ljaycox]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

OK, I found contact information I could not see before due to security settings on my machine> To the man who sent the PM--thank you, when i could get that i saw that my security was wrong for a user friendly experience on this site. It is fixed, and I can send things privately now.
I was trying to help--sorry for the misunderstanding, carry on.

[c1ue]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

1) Maybe I am wrong but it didn't seem to cover any new ground. That might be a hard thing to do. I would not know since all I do is make comments and no original material comes from me. I thought the word I (first person) was used alot. Also if I can spot the grammer and spelling mistakes that's bad.

2) Again, maybe I am wrong but in other pieces EJ has written the replies come fast and furious. Accolades and debate follow. I think this piece wont have as many replies as some of his better work.

I think you like it so much because EJ says gold is not a bubble. I liked that part as well.

C(j),

I disagree, there is much that is new here.

Specifically the previous pronouncement listed the concept that the stock market would have a downward correction by the end of Q4 2009. From this article (though not necessarily the previous one) it seems clear to me that this concept was based on the idea that the US was going to violate a number of conditions which had caused currency crises in the past.

This update clarifies that the US has passed that possibility this time. Also that this successful negotiation of a possible currency crisis was not predictable.

This update also analyzes the present 'recovery' in the context of past recoveries to see if the fundamentally risky state the US is in will be upgraded/upgradeable to less risky.

The conclusion from what I can see (in this part as well as the iTulip Select part) is that it is not.

From my part - I do think it is new and useful.

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

[Prazak]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

GOTH? I've consulted a few sources, even going so far as the Glossary on SurvivalBlog (http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html), and still can't decipher. Could you kindly elaborate?

[goadam1]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

C(j),

I disagree, there is much that is new here.

Specifically the previous pronouncement listed the concept that the stock market would have a downward correction by the end of Q4 2009. From this article (though not necessarily the previous one) it seems clear to me that this concept was based on the idea that the US was going to violate a number of conditions which had caused currency crises in the past.

This update clarifies that the US has passed that possibility this time. Also that this successful negotiation of a possible currency crisis was not predictable.

This update also analyzes the present 'recovery' in the context of past recoveries to see if the fundamentally risky state the US is in will be upgraded/upgradeable to less risky.

The conclusion from what I can see (in this part as well as the iTulip Select part) is that it is not.

From my part - I do think it is new and useful.

The tone of course is (Hoo Shhhh Come to the Dark Side) now getting close to my own long held views of everything GOTH. And my long held GOTH plan may indeed need to be exercised.

EJ's insistence of a return to the mean, a return to sensibility, betrays a New England Yankee, Calvinistic idea of virtue, honesty, rewards and punishments. One should never take sin out of any economic model. And unless we elect a "reformer" (of god only knows what stripe), I wouldn't hold my breath.

I sense a throwing in of the towel as Gold becomes a fire plaything. It was the nature of how hard it was and the extra effort it took to own gold that made it special.

Gather around the fire as we burn the rule book. Huddle close as we tell tales of good men gone bad and bad men called heros.

Pay attention and be fleet of feet and you may survive the ride. But don't look for sense, fairness, honesty...

[Jay]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

EJ's insistence of a return to the mean, a return to sensibility, betrays a New England Yankee, Calvinistic idea of virtue, honesty, rewards and punishments. One should never take sin out of any economic model. And unless we elect a "reformer" (of god only knows what stripe), I wouldn't hold my breath.

I sense a throwing in of the towel as Gold becomes a fire plaything. It was the nature of how hard it was and the extra effort it took to own gold that made it special.

Gather around the fire as we burn the rule book. Huddle close as we tell tales of good men gone bad and bad men called heros.

Pay attention and be fleet of feet and you may survive the ride. But don't look for sense, fairness, honesty...

Gold as a fire plaything sure, I agree 100%. But I am also sure that they will have one hell of a time keeping the lid on forever. The next leg down and the resultant gold price will be telling. I am of the opinion that GLD is a major tool in keeping down the price. It is not possible for that enormous ETF to have that much gold backing. The futures market doesn't pass the sniff test to me.

The winners always write history. Good or bad, they end up heros in the books. When this chapter closes it will be the same. Who does the writing?

[c1ue]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

GOTH? I've consulted a few sources, even going so far as the Glossary on SurvivalBlog (http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html), and still can't decipher. Could you kindly elaborate?

GOTH = GO To Hell plan

You've got your main plan. You've got contingency plans.

The GOTH plan is when all the other plans fail. Mine consists of 2 different other nations I can flee to and the gold coins to get me onto the last plane.

[flintlock]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I have a GOTH too!

[raja]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

That’s why China, Japan, the UK, and all the others hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt. If they don’t the U.S will experience both a liquidity and a solvency crisis, leading to a sovereign debt and currency crisis.

EJ,

The other countries lending the U.S. money may not want the chaos of an insolvent U.S. and all that would entail. But what if they are unable to buy U.S. debt?

Are there conditions under which these countries could not "hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt"? What are those conditions and how likely are they to occur?

Certainly the U.K. is headed in that direction . . . .

[Prazak]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

GOTH = GO To Hell plan

You've got your main plan. You've got contingency plans.

The GOTH plan is when all the other plans fail. Mine consists of 2 different other nations I can flee to and the gold coins to get me onto the last plane.

Ah, thanks. The GOTH plan. Smells like libertarian spirit.

Executed one of those almost two decades ago and laying the groundwork for the next round as we speak.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

EJ,

The other countries lending the U.S. money may not want the chaos of an insolvent U.S. and all that would entail. But what if they are unable to buy U.S. debt?

Are there conditions under which these countries could not "hold noses and continue to buy U.S. debt"? What are those conditions and how likely are they to occur?

Certainly the U.K. is headed in that direction . . . .

Before I add my two halfpennyworth, may I make a small point about the numbers posting here. I live here in the UK. My weekends are often spent away from the internet, (There is more to life than a computer screen), and particularly this weekend with the information suddenly arriving via a friend about the YouTube/Davos challenge which I am about to address. I suspect that many others here on iTulip have the same difficulties and as such, I have only now, late afternoon Sunday, discovered EJ's latest submission. The iTulip membership is scattered right across the planet, so please, do not assume that the quality of the reaction to the submission is related to the numbers that post their own opinion. For the record, this is easily as good as anything else EJ has presented and, as someone else has already stated, the word count seems to be at the level of a book.

Turning to the UK; agree that it is very likely that the UK will be unable to purchase $US Treasuries for the very simple reason that they need the same thing here; but this time others to purchase our equivalent, £UK Gilts. Further, the law of unintended consequences may kick in with the traders who are having trouble getting paid their bonuses may turn on us and trash the Gilt market just to get their own back....