Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

[Chris Coles]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

I can't see wage inflation developing. Of course they'll continue the outsourcing trend. Maybe some at the top will see wage inflation, but unless they re-start FIRE, not a chance for the rest . Too many people. Too little need for people vs rapid technology growth combined with outsourcing. We can't grow our way out of this mess anymore. At least not on a global scale. All the US could hope to do is stave off disaster for a while by becoming protectionist about its dwindling blue collar job base( highly unlikely). So I expect a full blown Socialist state by 2012. I Expect higher taxes to more than eat up any wage inflation anyway.

Glad you brought up the outsourcing along with increasing taxes and regulations. That is a vicious cycle. Lowering taxes on business and easing regulations would indeed help save jobs here. But now we see why deficit spending is bad. We can't AFFORD to lower the taxes now. The credit is maxed out. Ross Perot was right way back when he ran for President. The deficit would catch us one day with our pants down.

With all due respect, that is a quite incorrect conclusion. Indeed, that has been my viewpoint for some decades, backed up by repeated presentations of papers to the contrary. The underlying problem of insufficient employment, ergo, insufficient job creation; is a direct result of the failure to establish a free marketplace for the capital required to create the jobs. Instead, what we have today is a system, (venture capital, merger and acquisition and private equity), all linked to the major investment banks; that flatly refuses to permit competition with existing investment. It is this refusal to permit new job creation, unless they are in complete control, that has, IMHO, caused the collapse of the financial system that we see all around us today.

Indeed, is why I put together all my previous papers, including some placed here on iTulip, into my free download book The Road Ahead from a Grass Roots Perspective www.chriscoles.com/page3.html and is why I have, as of last night, put up an entry for the YouTube/Davos Debate competition. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVWhgdL6Tt8

Please look out for me if I get past the first stage and put forward for a public vote. http://www.weforum.org/en/index.htm

The Davos Debate starts here: http://www.youtube.com/davos

Perhaps someone else from the iTulip community will also "have a go"???

[mickeyc21]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

There is an entire thread documenting instances of this type of inflation here: Inflation snapshots: December 2009[/QUOTE]

This thread is at the extreme end of unconvincing. There are only three documented examples of reduction in quantity supplied and prices kept the same - which is clearly a price rise. Comically there is also an example of the opposite where the poster proves a drop in prices unintentionally.
My local supermarket (all of iTulip's examples for some reason are food related) has yellow stickers for items on sale. It is a challenge to find an item not discounted. The entire supermarket is a sea of yellow stickers.
You and your readers seem to be confusing a small number of producers or service providers desperate attempts to remain in business as evidence of inflation. If my personal costs in every area are declining then the inputs for US businesses are declining too. The Chinese restaurant cutting corners is buying cheaper groceries just like I am.
It is typical for a failing business to do things like this. Failure breeds desperation.

[mickeyc21]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

Well I call: My experience here in the UK is that reduced quality is exactly what is happening. Sainsbury's are an excellent example. Their "Greens" now come in the same package but with about 20% less cabbage in the pack. (for example). I could list many examples. I live alone for the time being and have to do all my own shopping. Reduction in quality, or quantity is happening all through the food industry. My first instance was Turkey burgers, that I used to like with 56% turkey, but when they reduced the turkey to 42% and removed the fresh herbs and replaced them with chemical taste effects I went right off them and have not returned again. Moreover, the manufacturer has moved the entire production facility to Poland and foisted their new product on them as something new to be enjoyed. Poor sods, they too will have a shock when the burgers end up with 30% turkey....

I can only speak for myself, but where I am, today, there are many signs of lower quality or quantity throughout the food industry.

Hi Chris,
You live around 5,500 miles away from me in a different country with a different currency. I can't judge for myself what is happening in your market and wont attempt to.
The points you raise seem to be more part of a longer term trend towards selling inferior food products. This has been going on for my entire life however and is not a response to Fed money printing in the US, which is iTulip's argument.

[ocelotl]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

The high inflation modeled here over the years is 100% over six years, with inflation reaching 20% to 30% in the peak year (see Inflation is Dead! Long Live Inflation!, Dec. 2005). The model is informed by periods such as the Mexican inflation you mention, as well as the Russian and U.S. inflation eras. A 100% wage inflation over six years will be sufficient to, for example, wipe out all mortgage debt, and allow for a reset of household balance sheets as did The Great Inflation of 1975 to 1980.

None of our models have every forecast inflation exceeding 30% in a single year.



The article The Face of Inflation that explores the Mexican inflation era you refer to is worth an occasional revisit.

That same article was my entrance to the site...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=105

[Chris Coles]

Re: Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up - Eric Janszen

And this brings the discussion right back to the question: Which nation, over the next, say, five years, is going to be the best location for a product design, manufacturing and distribution business where one will own and control all aspects ?