Are We Idiots?

[grapejelly]

Re: Are We Idiots?

If you read the superb book by David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, you learn that over the past thousand years there have been several well-defined long upward cycles in prices, punctuated by periods of relative equilibrium. The upward price cycles often, at their terminus, involve great social unrest.

But what is most interesting is that they also often involve unusual weather patterns!

How it all syncs is beyond me, but it seems to. In earlier periods unusual weather was so dire because human existence depended so much on the weather. One year there would be no summer, and mass starvation would result. One year there would be extremely unusual massive rains, and mass starvation would result.

I don't think things are like that anymore. Over the course of the millenium covered in the book, each price cycle often ends with a combination of political upheavals and bad weather, but the results of the weather are less and less dire as technology has advanced and made existence less borderline.

In any event, as you read a book like this you realize how bad things really were in the past compared to today. Some perspective anyway.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Are We Idiots?

I am not talking about weather in the sense of this years or next; what I am saying is that we are witnessing the swing change to a completely new paradigm. The changes to come will not swing back the following year, they will stay for thousands or even millions of years. When the sea rises, it will stay risen and the consequences will return the human race to a new dark age that will make the price of a house the very least of our worries.

[SSmith]

Re: Are We Idiots?

I've been wondering about this with respect to food. Global warming projections suggest that some food-growing areas will become unsuitable for farming, while other land--often further north--will become arable. A lot depends on the timing of factors like these:

1. Whether the new farmlands become suitable for farming before the old ones cannot sustain agriculture.

2. Whether an infrastructure, such as roads and railroads, will be in place to transport the food out of the new farming areas when needed. Brazil has trouble transporting food for export out of its interior because building this infrastructure is expensive.

3. When will governments admit that the old farmland will no longer support agriculture? Trade negotiations and agricultural subsidies show how tenaciously governments support existing farmers, so one would think they would not give up on these farmers easily after only a few bad years that could be explained away as part of the normal weather cycles. And if rich-country governments are not willing to abandon their existing farmers, they probably will not finance or otherwise support infrastructure construction elsewhere.

It also depends on the effects of global warming on agriculture in many countries at once. It's impossible to know how it will play out, or how quickly the climate changes will occur, but one can see developments ranging from a relatively easy and painless transition to extended periods of catastrophic famine. Even a few years of food shortages during a period of transition would be difficult, and it's hard to see anyone implementing the necessary (and expensive) changes before they become absolutely necessary.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Personally, I do not believe there is anything that can be done to stop this change. I have ideas about some new forms of energy, but like every other outside the box thinker we cannot get access to funding for our thinking. So the ideas lie fallow. Financial institutions do not invest in thinkers; their world centres upon totally ephemeral concepts such as hedge funds, not real research or innovation. Governments only fund large research projects in large companies. That is the way of things in today's world. You get a minimal grant to make yourself attractive to a large company to fund you on-wards. Forget about freedom, free enterprise and the like. Just like the unstoppable train in a movie; nothing will change until it is too late to stop.

Certainly the record shows that within a century or so, there may be sufficient CO2 to match the time when the largest animal in North America was the size of a small dog. But my money is on Greenland losing most of its ice within the next decade. Yes, the experts say it cannot happen for a thousand years. Well, the second Larson went inside a year when the experts said it might go in another 35 years.

Go down to the nearest port and look at the sea level, it will come to within six feet of the top of the wharf. Now add another 20 feet.

[DemonD]

Re: Are We Idiots?

I just hope that hyperinflation doesn't cause pitchforks to become too expensive. I'll be prepared either way.

[FRED]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Here comes the pitchfork crowd. The first wave is peaceful.

Group plans to physically block evictions

Local activists vow to begin this week physically blocking eviction of Bostonians who lose homes to foreclosures - even if protesters wind up in jail.

“We feel stopping evictions is important enough that if arrests are necessary, some people will be arrested,” said Steve Meacham of City Life, a Jamaica Plain group that plans to launch a civil-disobedience campaign tomorrow.

[rabot10]

Re: Are We Idiots?

The Idiot thing cought my attention, OK yes I"m an Idiot - but don't tell my kids OK

[bart]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Thought for the thread for today:

[jk]

Re: Are We Idiots?

time for an interview with Carl Steidtmann, chief economist and director, Consumer Business - Deloitte Research? maybe he can cheer us up.

[FRED]

Re: Are We Idiots?

time for an interview with Carl Steidtmann, chief economist and director, Consumer Business - Deloitte Research? maybe he can cheer us up.

Great idea! Even if he doesn't accept, it'll be fun sending him letters.

[Sharky]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Carl Steidtmann seems to write most of the editorial for Deloitte's Economic & Market Review. Some entertaining stuff in the Apr 2007 issue:

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/...MR1Q042007.pdf
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/...D41537,00.html

Much of the economic pessimism comes from a strong belief that in the face of a dismal housing market, the consumer can not continue to spend. Nothing could be further from the truth. While consumer cash flow has been hurt by a reduction in home mortgage refinancing, job and wage growth continue to be healthy. Employers added nearly 450K net new jobs in Q1 2007, a slowdown from a year ago but still enough to lift real consumer spending by more than 3%.

[tombat1913]

Re: Are We Idiots?





He's right, I don't see one pitchfork!

[Rajiv]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Yes, but we do see batons, handcuffs and tazers and of course "star trooper" helmets!

[Chris Coles]

Re: Are We Idiots?

Yes, but we do see batons, handcuffs and tazers and of course "star trooper" helmets!

BBC TV and Channel 4 TV news reports have clearly shown that there was very little violence. The young man is almost certainly wearing red paint on his face. The worst that I have seen was some idiots breaking a window in RBS and being clearly watched and subsequently caught and charged.

The UK has got civilised protest down to a fine art form that many other nations could learn from.

[Rajiv]

Re: Are We Idiots?

I was in no way implying that there was violence -- I was responding to the "pitchfork" comment -- It was clear that the young man had used paint.