Gold update: Gold over $1000 and still no gold bubble - Eric Janszen

[goadam1]

Re: Last hurrah?

Gartman: Don't Be Naive, Gold Is A Bubble

Mr. Gartman: you are wrong and as I said it many times; the $CAD is not a safe-haven against USD-based inflation.

Also, any supporter of bank bailouts such as yourself is naive at best.

I'm short the dollar by owning gold and taco bell. lot of new taco bells in India too.

[goadam1]

Re: Last hurrah?

A beacon of light in the midst of dark chaos.

Yes - any sane investment (excluding gambling) is about multiple scenarios, varying degrees of probability and robustness of decisions made.

With that said, and with no intention to hanging people up to dry for their "false forecasts" what are your scenarios and probabilities?

Sharing these can sharpen the mind and broaden the horizon.

And talking about horizon, I think one should include time horizons. I claim that much of the disagreement stems from people misunderstanding each others horizons.

To me 1-6 mo is trade-worthy stuff, 3-5+ years is investing worthy. The stuff in between is the hard part.

I don't really have a knack for trading. Good stuff is running out. No one wants a war. People like cars, bad food, shiny things. I own land without debt and physical gold. I own short and medium term debt. I like compound interest. I like my real estate because I can enjoy it. I hate debt even though debt is an inflation hedge. I think the system is venal, corrupt and stupid. I've made more money on beer, weapons and fast food than anything else. I don't buy anything that requires too much debt or is too much owned by private equity or hedgies (retail comes to mind). Tech is bad too because it doesn't last long and is always too expensive.

I think those expecting a crash all the time or a return to sensible values are moralist or jealous of rich people. Forget it. Global fiat is a runaway train.

Does that make sense.

[cjppjc]

Re: Last hurrah?

[quote=goadam1;133900]
I think those expecting a crash all the time or a return to sensible values are moralist or jealous of rich people.
quote]

While blanket statements are never 100% true, this resonates strongly.

[Raz]

Re: Last hurrah?

Gartman: Don't Be Naive, Gold Is A Bubble

Mr. Gartman: you are wrong and as I said it many times; the $CAD is not a safe-haven against USD-based inflation.

Also, any supporter of bank bailouts such as yourself is naive at best.

Dennis the Gartman was at one time a very good trader and an excellent read. Success went to his head: he spends far too much time on the talk circuit, hobnobbing with the "Volvo, white wine & cheese set". He is also charging $400/month for his newsletter,
and it isn't worth 10% of that!

I read him occasionally and would be glad to give a heads up to anyone who really cares what he thinks.

I only use him now as a contrary indicator.

PS. He voted for Obama thinking he would be better for the country; now he's puking over the guy. Obama came from nowhwere to the Senate with no more experience than Sara Palin. He rose rapidly through the most corrupt political machine of any large American city. Just what did Gartman think he was going to get? :confused:

[raja]

Re: Last hurrah?

I don't really have a knack for trading. Good stuff is running out. No one wants a war. People like cars, bad food, shiny things. I own land without debt and physical gold. I own short and medium term debt. I like compound interest. I like my real estate because I can enjoy it. I hate debt even though debt is an inflation hedge. I think the system is venal, corrupt and stupid. I've made more money on beer, weapons and fast food than anything else. I don't buy anything that requires too much debt or is too much owned by private equity or hedgies (retail comes to mind). Tech is bad too because it doesn't last long and is always too expensive.

I think those expecting a crash all the time or a return to sensible values are moralist or jealous of rich people. Forget it. Global fiat is a runaway train.

Does that make sense.

The pendulum always swings back in the opposite direction.

I think we'll have "return to sensible values" in that the pendulum of power will shift some . . . more to the People and away from the elites.

As far as a crash, that's inevitable.
Reality will rule, and US fiat fantasy will die.
Return to the mean at the extremes . . . .

[Prazak]

Re: Last hurrah?

Dennis the Gartman was at one time a very good trader and an excellent read. Success went to his head: he spends far too much time on the talk circuit, hobnobbing with the "Volvo, white wine & cheese set". He is also charging $400/month for his newsletter,
and it isn't worth 10% of that!

I read him occasionally and would be glad to give a heads up to anyone who really cares what he thinks.

I only use him now as a contrary indicator.

PS. He voted for Obama thinking he would be better for the country; now he's puking over the guy. Obama came from nowhwere to the Senate with no more experience than Sara Palin. He rose rapidly through the most corrupt political machine of any large American city. Just what did Gartman think he was going to get? :confused:

Is there something wrong with a Volvo, which is the safest car on the road, a good bottle of white wine, which is the nectar of the gods, and a good cheese? Does liking all three somehow make me a liberal elitist? People like to throw phrases around like that as epithets but it only makes them sound like philistines -- which, Raz, I know from your postings, you are not!

[Raz]

Re: Last hurrah?

Is there something wrong with a Volvo, which is the safest car on the road, a good bottle of white wine, which is the nectar of the gods, and a good cheese? Does liking all three somehow make me a liberal elitist? People like to throw phrases around like that as epithets but it only makes them sound like philistines -- which, Raz, I know from your postings, you are not!

Lighten up, Prazak. Please!

I meant no harm. Back in the early 1980s it was used in a perjorative sense, but down heauh in thuh South it no longer has that sting.

My wife wanted a Volvo for years but I refused due to the unbelievable, insane and totally ridiculous maintenance and repair costs. She's a red wine drinker, and although I don't imbibe much wine, when I do I prefer whites (Chenin Blanc, Reisling, Chardonnay).
I own part of a company that sells cheese pastries and cookies so I LUV cheese.

I'm a beer drinker by trade so I guess that removes me from the "elitest" crowd.
And by the way, they're not all Liberals: some of them are the NeoCon nitwits.

[goadam1]

Re: Last hurrah?

Lighten up, Prazak. Please!

I meant no harm. Back in the early 1980s it was used in a perjorative sense, but down heauh in thuh South it no longer has that sting.

My wife wanted a Volvo for years but I refused due to the unbelievable, insane and totally ridiculous maintenance and repair costs. She's a red wine drinker, and although I don't imbibe much wine, when I do I prefer whites (Chenin Blanc, Reisling, Chardonnay).
I own part of a company that sells cheese pastries and cookies so I LUV cheese.

I'm a beer drinker by trade so I guess that removes me from the "elitest" crowd.
And by the way, they're not all Liberals: some of them are the NeoCon nitwits.

I'm an elitist. Although, I prefer a mercedes and I drink Malbec for it's value.

[Prazak]

Re: Last hurrah?

Lighten up, Prazak. Please!

I meant no harm. Back in the early 1980s it was used in a perjorative sense, but down heauh in thuh South it no longer has that sting.

My wife wanted a Volvo for years but I refused due to the unbelievable, insane and totally ridiculous maintenance and repair costs. She's a red wine drinker, and although I don't imbibe much wine, when I do I prefer whites (Chenin Blanc, Reisling, Chardonnay).
I own part of a company that sells cheese pastries and cookies so I LUV cheese.

I'm a beer drinker by trade so I guess that removes me from the "elitest" crowd.
And by the way, they're not all Liberals: some of them are the NeoCon nitwits.

I know you didn't mean any harm, Raz, and I didn't mean to come off heavy. I just wanted to speak up in defense of some of the finer things in life, like wine and cheese, that seem lately to be abused with reference to a particular social class.

I'm also an avid beer drinker, having spent some years in the land where the Pilsener was born and where the finest Pilseners in the world are still be found. Indeed, I hoisted one last evening in honor of the 20th anniversary of the so-called Velvet Revolution.

[vinoveri]

Re: Last hurrah?

I think those expecting a crash all the time or a return to sensible values are moralist or jealous of rich people. Forget it. Global fiat is a runaway train.

.

Perhaps there are some who are simply jealous of their own savings, and resent having to guard/preserve it by being compelled to speculate on risky assets in a casino which is obviously rigged toward the benefit of the super-elite (oh, and yes perhaps some who understand currency debasement as a form of theft may object on moral grounds, but I suppose it depends on what one's belief system is)

I for one would gladly borrow $ from the Fed at 0.15% p.a., enter the trading marketss, and continue to double down until I hit the jackpot, but most of us are not given that privileged position.

In some ways this reminds me of "trickle down economics". The gov keeps the liquidity hose open and employs/trust the talented good folks at the broker dealers, investment houses to allocate that "capital" down the chain to worthy entrepreneurs, and hey in a world where men and women were good and true, maybe that would work, but, I hate to say it my friend, but the vast majority of those with wealth, like the rest of us, are corrupt and cannot be trusted.

Great article on some of this and on Keynes here:
http://mises.org/daily/3845

[halcyon]

Re: Last hurrah?

It pays to read the contrarians who have a good argument:

1) Paulson is starting a gold fund. He's playing a bubble (phase2 and phase3 of a bubble)

2) Louise Yamada (TA) says gold is maybe in phase 2 of a bubble

3) Willem Buiter analyzes well how gold is just fiat as anything else today. Quoting Austrians from 30s does still not make gold de jure money. TODAY counts, not 70 years ago.

4) Julian Robertson (Tiger management) correctly points out that gold does not give interest. It is a safety hedge. It only rises in times of crises due to anticipation, hence a bubble. No inherent value. BTW, he's saying to buy gold miners instead of gold, if you want to get dividends. He disagrees 100% with Jim Rogers on this (who says: don't buy the miners)

5) Even Jim Sinclair says that you gotta exit a bubble before it bursts. He did in the previous one. He's not dumb enough to think that this time will somehow not be the same.

Pretty much the only people who are saying gold is NOT in a bubble or not getting there are gold-bugs: gold pushers, gold vault leasers, gold ETF owners, gold investors, gold advice peddlers, etc. In general people who can ONLY see gold as good and everything else as bad.

Now gee, who would I listen here?

This doesn't mean you can't make stupendous money riding a bubble. But you have to exit as well. Otherwise you never make money, only paper wins.

Being right for the wrong reasons does not warm at the end of the day, unless one can also exit.

And yes, I do trade in gold myself, but I don't "invest" in it for the long run. People who are better at it than myself may well do that (ref: Jim Sinclair), but even they know when to exit.

Just food for thought.

[Jay]

Re: Last hurrah?

It pays to read the contrarians who have a good argument:

1) Paulson is starting a gold fund. He's playing a bubble (phase2 and phase3 of a bubble)

2) Louise Yamada (TA) says gold is maybe in phase 2 of a bubble

3) Willem Buiter analyzes well how gold is just fiat as anything else today. Quoting Austrians from 30s does still not make gold de jure money. TODAY counts, not 70 years ago.

4) Julian Robertson (Tiger management) correctly points out that gold does not give interest. It is a safety hedge. It only rises in times of crises due to anticipation, hence a bubble. No inherent value. BTW, he's saying to buy gold miners instead of gold, if you want to get dividends. He disagrees 100% with Jim Rogers on this (who says: don't buy the miners)

5) Even Jim Sinclair says that you gotta exit a bubble before it bursts. He did in the previous one. He's not dumb enough to think that this time will somehow not be the same.

Pretty much the only people who are saying gold is NOT in a bubble or not getting there are gold-bugs: gold pushers, gold vault leasers, gold ETF owners, gold investors, gold advice peddlers, etc. In general people who can ONLY see gold as good and everything else as bad.

Now gee, who would I listen here?

This doesn't mean you can't make stupendous money riding a bubble. But you have to exit as well. Otherwise you never make money, only paper wins.

Being right for the wrong reasons does not warm at the end of the day, unless one can also exit.

And yes, I do trade in gold myself, but I don't "invest" in it for the long run. People who are better at it than myself may well do that (ref: Jim Sinclair), but even they know when to exit.

Just food for thought.

I have a core SHTF physical position that I hope I will never need and will give to my kids. It is insurance. I also hold GTU that I look at as an intelligent liquid investment that I will dump when the time is right.

[xela]

Re: Last hurrah?

5) Even Jim Sinclair says that you gotta exit a bubble before it bursts. He did in the previous one. He's not dumb enough to think that this time will somehow not be the same.

Actually, he is saying that this time it will not collapse afterwards.

[metalman]

Re: Last hurrah?

Pretty much the only people who are saying gold is NOT in a bubble or not getting there are gold-bugs: gold pushers, gold vault leasers, gold ETF owners, gold investors, gold advice peddlers, etc. In general people who can ONLY see gold as good and everything else as bad.

read the articles here then comment, else look stupid.

[Digidiver]

Re: Last hurrah?

SocGen says $6,300 is fair value for Gold:

http://commoditytradealert.com/blog/?p=3894

The similarity between the decision of India’s central bank to buy half the IMF’s entire sale of gold, and the move by France’s central bank to start converting dollars into gold in 1965 — which was, of course, the start of the slippery slope leading to the collapse of Bretton Woods and the closure of the US gold window under Nixon.
In the gold mania that followed, the price rose to levels that matched the US dollar monetary base (it reached 140pc at the peak). If that were to occur today after Ben Bernanke’s go at the printing press, gold would have to reach $6,300 an ounce. The US owns 263m ounces of gold while the Fed’s monetary base is $1.7 trillion. Simple equation.