August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

[rdrees]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

I like this post!

I would never pretend to know what the trends are. I would also acknowledge the ability of "EJ" to have seen at least one important trend--this severe recession--sooner than almost anyone.

But orthodoxy can be problematic. And predicting market trends is different from proposing a theory about how markets react in every case that a bubble is burst, which is really what Ka-Poom claims to do.

In this case, the evidence to me is tending not to support inflation for some time, and is in fact indicative of deflation from a traditional economic standpoint.

And yet, the PPI data may "still be wrong," in the words of jk.

And I'm glad we're talking now!

[ASH]

Re: a side note about CPI

I ain't the expert...

I love it that my "bat signal" works so well!

as for which way the wind is blowing, basically, looking at the fdi, the wind is always - with rare exception - blowing in the same direction anyway.

Do you think the last few CPI reads that were cited in this post is one of those times when the wind switched direction for a bit?

And there's always my charts which show both. ;)

I love the Bart signal!

[bart]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

Wow, bart. You really do not like people who present points against your own.

Of course you should still post.

Of course, you should take pure empirical evidence of 8 straight months of falling PPI index--supposedly the gold standard around here--as something more than the "stale" old argument that "EJ" may be right on a lot of investment calls, but perhaps wrong on his underlying theory. At least Ka-Poom theory as originally stated in 2006.

You accuse and accuse and accuse others of ignoring your points, being rude, etc.

Let's move beyond the personal, bart, and look at the numbers.

Not arguments. Not "stale" points.

Numbers. Numbers that show significant deflation despite overwhelming efforts by the Fed against it.

Let's elevate this thing, bart.

Oh good grief.


I'll repeat it for you one more time.

I call them as I see them, and don't tolerate people well who have few to no manners and attack EJ and the article in their very first post. Perhaps you don't see comments in his very first post like "flies in the face of actual statistics" or "overwhelming empiric evidence of deflation, not inflation." or " "EJ" seems to assume that lower purchasing power equals inflation, but that's not right. " as accusatory or quite excessive, but I do - especially when the poster apparently doesn't have *any* background to speak of in KaPoom or the general iTulip story.

It's well beyond tacky (at best) in my opinion to post like he did.

...

I see he at least is doing his research now and seeing a fuller picture, so he's probably not a troll... but as I said, that kind of initial post combined with unfamiliarity with KaPoom, etc. is well beyond tacky in my book - and I'll always call someone on it.

...

If the newcomers truly do their homework, and then want to debate or discuss - more power to them.

....



Can you give it up now, or do you have to keep up with the worship of logical fallacies like straw men - and trying to characterize me as something you actually are (one of the 25 rules of disinformation too, I might add), etc?

[Fiat Currency]

Re: a side note about CPI

I love it that my "bat signal" works so well!


I love the Bart signal!

Indeed!!

Bat Signal.gif Crystal Ball.gif

[rdrees]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

That's the best you can do, bart?

I may not be the most gracious poster. But between you and me, I think neither are you. That goes to your first point.

As to your second, that's nice of you to retract your accusation that I'm a troll. I really do appreciate that. But let's talk about the facts. What say you--and anyone here--about these numbers. Because I respect real debate--and "EJ's" forcasting. But I can't stand orthodoxy. So how about it? Let's look at those numbers this month that show both year on year and month on month deflation?!

And, once again, I think I've done enough homework to know that John Williams is an amazing composer...

[MarkL]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

My assumption was correct, but I wouldn't have expected you to read and fully understand the whole thread - given your insistence on beating a dead horse, etc.

Feel free to ignore convention and also not answer or comment on questions or comments that clarify or enhance another's position - and leave yourself open to valid criticisms about practicing logical fallacies.

And yet again, you actually ignore the main and primary point of my initial post... nor do you show an ability to just give it up.

straight question I can actually answer - because the CPI has been generally going up for the last 5 months, just like PPI - and CPI without lies too.
Give it up, unless you have to continue for some odd reason
When you don't comment on others points, that's not called debate - whether you do it or he does it (note that he *never* directly addressed that set of recent PPI data)... and that you not only can't just drop it, but also show by this comment that you have little no no clue what I objected strenuously to.
And now you're calling me a coward - too bad we're not in person.
I think you've now gone well beyond propriety, manners and the rules of iTulip itself.

Bart I will agree with some of the posters here that in the past you've given us some good stuff.

But this is just... Blah blah blah. Almost no facts. All name calling. talk about disinformation. Instead of discuss, attack!

SO... anybody care to get back to a discussion of deflation vs inflation and the facts that the PPI is down both YOY, for 8 months, and MOM and the fact that its up for 5 months and what this indicates/means?

[bart]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

Fred or EJ, are the most recent posts from rdrees and MarkL with the continuing attacks and crap something that you want to continue?

Its well beyond ridiculous and does not strike me as what iTulip rules and decorum are all about.

[FRED]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

I like this post!

I would never pretend to know what the trends are. I would also acknowledge the ability of "EJ" to have seen at least one important trend--this severe recession--sooner than almost anyone.

But orthodoxy can be problematic. And predicting market trends is different from proposing a theory about how markets react in every case that a bubble is burst, which is really what Ka-Poom claims to do.

In this case, the evidence to me is tending not to support inflation for some time, and is in fact indicative of deflation from a traditional economic standpoint.

And yet, the PPI data may "still be wrong," in the words of jk.

And I'm glad we're talking now!

See my response here.

[rdrees]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

I'll do a quick bite:

The PPI is down month on month.

It's way down year on year.

So what does it really mean, when you get down to it in an inflation/deflation debate, that the PPI is up 0.01% in the past five months. Especially when it's down 19% over the past year?

Does that 0.01% spell anything important vis a vis longer term economic data? Does that 0.01% over 5 months mean anything in the grand scheme of things? Especially when the PPI is DOWN 0.1% in the last month alone?

[bart]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

Horrors!!!

The PPI is down for one month!!!

Call out the deflationistas and party hearty!


Too bad you can't just deal directly with the facts as presented, including how you "ever so cleverly" avoided the annual vs. annualized growth rate issue in both CPI and PPI... let alone the shadowstats.com facts about how the CPI has been "changed" over the years... or the actual stats from the last 5 months.

You must have one of those new fangled magic Wall St. calculators to get that 0.01% over 5 months - well done!

Don't make me post any charts - bart charts can be poisonous to those who don't like the full facts and nothing but the facts...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

... the most recent posts from rdrees and MarkL ...

Its well beyond ridiculous and does not strike me as what iTulip rules and decorum are all about.

Agreed. .

[bart]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

And, once again, I think I've done enough homework to know that John Williams is an amazing composer...

Rad man!
I'm like so totally and fer shure blown away by your knowledge of how to play a tune.

Do you know "The hills are alive with the sound of... spin about one month's data"?

[metalman]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

I like this post!

I would never pretend to know what the trends are. I would also acknowledge the ability of "EJ" to have seen at least one important trend--this severe recession--sooner than almost anyone.

But orthodoxy can be problematic. And predicting market trends is different from proposing a theory about how markets react in every case that a bubble is burst, which is really what Ka-Poom claims to do.

In this case, the evidence to me is tending not to support inflation for some time, and is in fact indicative of deflation from a traditional economic standpoint.

And yet, the PPI data may "still be wrong," in the words of jk.

And I'm glad we're talking now!

MarkL & rdrees... sniff, sniff, sniff...

i smell lawyers.

argue away, boys! but be nice to my man bart.

(i'm a tech writer. in my free time i do not write manuals)

[bart]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

MarkL & rdrees... sniff, sniff, sniff...

i smell lawyers.

argue away, boys! but be nice to my man bart.

(i'm a tech writer. in my free time i do not write manuals)

Did rdrees give it away by the "I may not be the most gracious poster" or was it just all the noise with so very little signal from them both? ;)

Or had you just read my new thread Unconscious Conspiracies ? :eek: ;)

[metalman]

Re: August 2009 FIRE Economy Depression update – Part I: Snowball in Summer - Eric Janszen

Did rdrees give it away by the "I may not be the most gracious poster" or was it just all the noise with so very little signal from them both? ;)

a product manual these days is 1/2 'how to operate the doo dah' and 1/2 'how to keep the manufacturer out of court'. that puts me in frequent contact with lawyers.

the way they look at the world... 'what can go wrong for my client'?

for example... in a manual to make a table (just an example... not that i've every done such) the manual draft submitted to the corp. lawyer...

'using the screw driver, use screw a to attach part f to part g'.

lawyer's note... 'no, say ''use screw a to attach part f to part g'' do not say screw driver.

me... how come?

lawyer... ok, what if the customer's wife from hell says, 'you f&cking moron. you'll never put that f&cking table together. what a joke. it'll be like every other 1/2 finished project around here. you'll screw it up. pieces laying around all over the place. how many times do i have to tell you... you goddam dummy...'' so he jams the screwdriver into her face. then she sues us for instructing her husband to use a weapon to make a table.'

me... oh, ok.

lawyer cost to project... $24,034.64

savings? no one knows... more than $24,034.64 if one customer has a wife from hell!