FIRE Economy Explosion Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

[cjppjc]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

there will be no universal justice and peace (i..e, no utopia), at least not until the "lion lays down with the lamb". There may be periods of great prosperity and peace, but those never last; corrupt human nature cannot be trusted and it cannot be kept down without continual supervision and exercising the wisdom that has been handed down to us from our forebearers. But modernism has chucked that wisdom down into the sewer

history is before us; how much more do we need to see that generation after generation, century after century, millenium after millenium, the same sad and sorry "soap operas" are re-played by man. Murder, treachery, deceit and manipulation ... oppression.

Human nature is with us till the end, my friends. The modern man is no different or superior at his core than the ancient man The fallacy is believing that we are "progressing" toward an inevitable "good end".
Look at the facts of history for goodness sake. Technical advances, and raised standards of living, long life spans, etc. are all good, but they have yet to change who we are at the core (and some might argue, they have served as excuses to cut the ties with the past and reason itself).

Yes I agree. In fact I've written this thought about man before. The lion and the lamb, as all old teachings is about the individual.

[c1ue]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

The bottom line is that I simply mean "less capable" of building and holding onto their money, not "less capable" in character, person, charity, honesty or any other way. I remain convinced that wealth disparity is a fact of life and, yes, it is PRIMARILY a result of the concious and free decisions made by each individual.

I think part of what you may not be admitting is that your own circumstances are not identical to everyone else.

Being a part of a successful family business means you have reputation and connections. This matters when it comes to trust in your new businesses products, getting loans, knowing who to talk to and where to go, understanding tax and regulatory issues, etc etc

To say that you did all this without any assistance is bulls**t of the highest order. Your education, background, friends, social tier, etc etc all had influence in this.

Try doing the same as minority without a college education, friends, or reputation.

I'm not much of a fan of capital punishment... but am a lot less of a fan of cultures or societies crashing... and worse.

I am a fan of capital punishment, as well as having a regulation equating some level of white collar crime as qualifying, but I also acknowledge that capital punishment means some number of innocent people getting executed for crimes they did not commit.

The problem is that a lot of people can't agree to this last part.

Certainly it should never be policy to do so, but queasiness over this is why we have people living on Death Row for decades.

[Chris Coles]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

I think part of what you may not be admitting is that your own circumstances are not identical to everyone else.

Being a part of a successful family business means you have reputation and connections. This matters when it comes to trust in your new businesses products, getting loans, knowing who to talk to and where to go, understanding tax and regulatory issues, etc etc

To say that you did all this without any assistance is bulls**t of the highest order. Your education, background, friends, social tier, etc etc all had influence in this.

Try doing the same as minority without a college education, friends, or reputation.

Some of you will know that I am in the process of writing a small book that sets out my own thinking, based upon my ideas for a Capital Spillway Trust, http://www.chriscolesholdings.com/page3.html and a lot of other papers I have written over the years. As Bobola has just today kindly come back to tell me he has agreed to my including his questions, I move a little closer to being able to launch it as a free PDF file. I will let you all know when it becomes available.

For now, I have to agree with c1ue here. The problem is not of equality of individual, but of access to the capital to be able to move forward. I well remember watching a TV interview with Lord White http://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/25/ob...r-is-dead.html who explained, (as an Englishman), how he had started in New York with "nothing". But on close inspection, he had an immense wealth behind him, money to spend for over a year, smart apartment, access to every form of help imaginable. His "Capital" base must have run to many hundreds of thousands of $US; but he still felt he had started with nothing but the shirt on his back.

History is littered with examples of individuals with good ideas that they could never bring forward for the simple reason, they never could get access to the capital and other resources they need to be able to try and succeed. That is the problem and, if I have anything to do with it, it can be eliminated.

[Chris Coles]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

Morality and ethics that transcend generations can only be the result of attending the school of hard knocks for generations.

There is no short cut. We will not live long enough to see this play out. We can just do our little part to tend to our own well being, help out our relatives and neighbours, and contribute what we can to the larger scale learning.

Human civilization mushroomed to a much greater level of complexity over the last century. It may take us humans a few centuries to figure out how to properly manage this new fangled power in a way that works both on the large scale and for the fair treatment and well being of individuals.

To my mind, this is the most profound statement of fact that I have ever seen anywhere.

I do not know who you are, but to my way of thinking, you should come out of the shadows and stand up proudly, as one of the great thinkers of our time.

[*T*]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

Capital punishment is not unpopular with me, the shortcoming with it only being if we do not have honest prosecutors (always gets back to honesty).

Folks whinge about the fallibility of govt. and its investment choices... I fail to see it killing any more effectively.
Someone please explain to me why state should have the right to kill.

[bart]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

Folks whinge about the fallibility of govt. and its investment choices... I fail to see it killing any more effectively.
Someone please explain to me why state should have the right to kill.

Self defense, just like individuals.

[raja]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

There is a whole lot of bitching going on here about lack of morality in business and politics, but no one is suggesting a possible answer, and I keep thinking about what is the answer, and I flat out don't know. It would seem that the answer isn't election of more who run on family values, in that "family values" seems to encompass lying a whole lot when it applies to those in politics.

I don't think there is a solution available now, due to the fact that it's human nature for a certain percent of the population to be greedy and feel a sense of entitlement.

The rich are probably not wise enough to refrain from pushing things too far. When that happens, there will be a revolution . . . mostly non-violent, but still injurious in other ways to the rich. Of course, those with similar inclinations (but previously lacking opportunity) will rise to the top to take their place, starting the cycle over again.

The only real solution I see is the discovery of a source of free (or nearly free) energy made available to every human on the planet . . . .
There will still be the usual corruption and greed, but the intensity level will be ratcheted down considerably . . . like decriminalizing drug use, which would cut the crime and violence rates dramatically.

[bart]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

I don't think there is a solution available now, due to the fact that it's human nature for a certain percent of the population to be greedy and feel a sense of entitlement.
...

Appropriate penalties virtually always stop or control undesired or unwanted behavior.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

Appropriate penalties virtually always stop or control undesired or unwanted behavior.

I agree with that bart. Were is not for societal retribution for killing others, I might well have killed a couple of people over my lifetime, and given similar provocation and the presence of a fatal disease I could see myself taking certain types out, or at least trying.

T above asked why the state should have the right to kill? My answer is some people deserve to be killed and not necessarily in a humane fashion.

I also agree with clue that some white collar crimes are so egregious, the perps should face the death penalty. Easily Madoff comes to mind.

[rjwjr]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

I think part of what you may not be admitting is that your own circumstances are not identical to everyone else.

Being a part of a successful family business means you have reputation and connections. This matters when it comes to trust in your new businesses products, getting loans, knowing who to talk to and where to go, understanding tax and regulatory issues, etc etc

To say that you did all this without any assistance is bulls**t of the highest order. Your education, background, friends, social tier, etc etc all had influence in this.

Try doing the same as minority without a college education, friends, or reputation.

c1ue,

Specific to my situation, you are making a number of unfounded assumptions...
1] It is true, I am not a minority.
2] I do NOT have a college education.
3] I did not have "friends" in the business I started or in that market.
4] I did not have a "reputation" in the market. My family business is in refrigeration, whereas the business I started was in audio/video and home wiring.
The fact is I started from scratch as much as I could when I ventured out on my own. I didn't get any loans from family, use any connections or contacts related to the family business (other than the same accounting firm for the benefit of continuity on tax matters).

You state that I'm not admitting that my own circumstances are not identical to everyone else. I retort that your mindset is defeatist and bullshit. Everyone has the same opportunity to start a business like I did. The fact that you even bring-up the issue of me not being a minority reflects a mindset of barriers and excuses. I don't have that mindset and I am not alone. I can tell that the vast majority of fellow iTulipers also possess it.

Starting from scratch, a positive, can-do, capable mindset will outearn a defeatist, scared, excuse-ridden mindset everytime, so no matter how much of my earnings the government takes from me, I'm always going to get it back from mindsets like yours. But as I stated early in this thread, I can understand why your mindset keeps yelling for a more level playing field, government assistance, and protection from the "rich", but honestly, it would never be enough, would it?

[bart]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

I agree with that bart. Were is not for societal retribution for killing others, I might well have killed a couple of people over my lifetime, and given similar provocation and the presence of a fatal disease I could see myself taking certain types out, or at least trying.

T above asked why the state should have the right to kill? My answer is some people deserve to be killed and not necessarily in a humane fashion.

I also agree with clue that some white collar crimes are so egregious, the perps should face the death penalty. Easily Madoff comes to mind.

And sometimes or even frequently, capital punishment or violence or jail time or similar is far from as good as public shunning or disgrace or penalties applied to one's family or having all or most of one's money taken away, etc.

In other words, "banishment" of some type can easily send a better and more permanent message - just a "time out" with the volume turned way up.

[c1ue]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

1] It is true, I am not a minority.

Minority itself isn't necessarily a handicap - being a Jew comes to mind. But being say a black male in Oakland...now that's a little different.

2] I do NOT have a college education.

Having an official college education were it an Ivy league is helpful, but having the background of being able to go to college is equally helpful. Gates comes to mind. But again the point is having been part of a successful family business, you already have an education in many parts of running a business: figuring out cash flow, hiring practices, regulatory compliance, etc etc.

3] I did not have "friends" in the business I started or in that market.

So you never sold anything to anyone you knew? You never dealt with any advertising/accounting/local government/customers you knew?

Well, that's tough to do even if you are trying.

4] I did not have a "reputation" in the market. My family business is in refrigeration, whereas the business I started was in audio/video and home wiring.

Again, unless you've moved to a new state, it is impossible to say that your previous work had no impact.

But if you choose to think that everything you've done was value created in a vacuum, that is your own choice.

From my point of view, it is impossible to separate your past from your present unless you move to somewhere where literally no one knows who you are. In these days of LinkedIn and what not, that also is becoming really difficult - the good old boy network of yesteryear is nothing compare to the internet enabled cliques of today.

Even understanding basic accounting is something which the typical college graduate doesn't get - much less the federal/state/local business regulatory environment.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

To my mind, this is the most profound statement of fact that I have ever seen anywhere.

Thank-you for the kind words.

[jk]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins

If you think my arguments are "smug" or that I am implying that I am a better person than someone less wealthy, then you are missing my point completely and you are implying that I am a type of person that I most definitely am not.

I simply feel it's obvious that some people know what it takes to create (and hang onto) wealth, and some people don't. It has nothing to do with character. I, for example, am supremely confident that I could start from nothing today and, within 10 years, could be worth at least $1,000,000. It's not "smug", it's the confidence of having run two businesses (I left the family business for 6 years in '99-'05 to start a completely unrelated business to prove to myself that I could be successful without the family business safety net) coupled with the confidence of having a bit of profound knowledge about what it takes to succeed. There are many others reading this post (a large majority of iTulipers I bet) that have the same confidence. And, importantly, we don't accumulate our wealth by being crooked, dishonest, or taking advantage of others. Here's a simple example...

If the goverment gave everyone a $25,000 tax refund, most of us iTulipers (a group made up primarily of the "more capable") would buy physical gold or pay down debt or stock-up on food or in some way "invest" most, if not all of this unexpected windfall. On the other hand, I'm convinced that the vast majority of others, the "less capable" would buy a car (probably financing some of it) or take a vacation or buy new clothes or some other way to start the process of sending the wealth right back to the wealth creators. This doesn't make these "spenders" worse people, it simply makes them "less capable" of improving their position in life. They may get a real thrill out of the new car, but they're increasing the wealth disparity between themselves and their iTulip-minded, "more capable" wealth accumulators. Nobody took advantage of the "less capable" in this example, they were free to make whatever decision they wished with their $25,000 rebate. The "more capable" didn't steal it from them, however, they did own the car dealership, resort, or clothing store in which the "less capable" spent their refund.

The bottom line is that I simply mean "less capable" of building and holding onto their money, not "less capable" in character, person, charity, honesty or any other way. I remain convinced that wealth disparity is a fact of life and, yes, it is PRIMARILY a result of the concious and free decisions made by each individual. You can take money from the wealthy and give it to the less wealthy over and over and over, and the money will find it's way back to (mostly) the same (type of) people. Do it too often, or too severely, and the wealthy (which are also the wealth creators) will leave the country or retire or in some way cease to create as much wealth. You'll likely lose all of the honest and honorable entreprenuers and business owners, only to be left with the real cheats and opportunists.

you still have not explained how, given the unchanging disparity of abilities among the population over generations, nonetheless the income distribution changes over time. more specifically, you have not addressed the fact that recently incomes have become more unequal than at any time since 1929, yet the distribution of abilities - however defined- over the population is no more extremely dispersed. what's changed?

[radon]

Re: FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen

And sometimes or even frequently, capital punishment or violence or jail time or similar is far from as good as public shunning or disgrace or penalties applied to one's family or having all or most of one's money taken away, etc.

In other words, "banishment" of some type can easily send a better and more permanent message - just a "time out" with the volume turned way up.

There will always be a fraction of the population that is willing to risk breaking the law for money no matter what the punishment. Many laws currently on the books are simply being selectively enforced. Creating new laws or changing penalties doesn't address this problem.