Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

[WildspitzE]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Perhaps my reading comprehension needs a bit of work but I thought that you guys had said that the switch was from Early Adopters to Early Majority in the previous article. Is this a change in view (as to where we are on the curve) or is it a typo?

Whew, I'm glad that it was a typo. Still some time to buy fellas (and ladies)!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Watch that clip and replace Nigel Tufnel with Greenspan and you can't help but laugh all over again (because it's a great movie to begin with). The whole thing applies.

The dollar will go down because the Fed can play one louder than everyone else. "If we need that extra push over the cliff..."

[BrianL]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Alas, that applies to many of us who found itulip late. ;)

I bought some gold at $860 as insurance but don't expect a big return on it. Showing up late has been a pattern for me; I started putting money in an IRA when I got my first job in 2001, bought a house in 2008, etc.

Cumulatively, I'm down about $4k in total on investments since starting. Down closer to 34k if you count home equity. Throw in inflation and sometimes I wonder why I bother trying.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

We don’t see as many Cash4Gold ads these days as we did last year. Has the middle class sold all of its gold? Sure looks that way.

I think this is correct.

Cash4Gold very recently modified their commercials on tv & the radio.

Here it is: http://www.cash4gold.com/affiliates/?partnerid=GOLDRUSH

20% more cash Offer extended to Sept 30th

[snakela]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Last week a financial journalist pinched off another one of those articles on gold that plops out of mainstream business press at least once a year.

Hehe, gratituous poop jokes always brighten a boring day.

[goadam1]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

**Applause**

I read a lot of financial advice that doesn't seem to talk about the effects of investment and the economy on people. The human element, if you'll pardon the cliché. Most of the economic commentary that the mainstream media pushes and advertises, is written as if life -- and money -- had no other purpose than to boost your spreadsheet numbers higher and higher, and it doesn't matter how. I know that better analysis is out there, but I just don't usually see it in the mainstream media.

Most of the financial advice that I read is typically wrong in their predictions (at least, during a useful time-frame). iTulip is typically right. I really don't think that's co-incidence. Something about seeing forests and trees, I think.

Funny, you have a Terminator for an avatar.

[bart]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Gold as a store of value has been getting a bad rap from some quarters at least since the days of economist John Maynard Keynes, who once sneeringly called it a “barbarous relic.”

One would think that a supposedly professional journalist like Larry and a supposedly accurate publication like the WSJ could at least get their quotes and facts correct. It was the gold standard that Keynes called a barbarous relic.

What Keynes actually said was:
"In truth, the gold standard is already a barbarous relic. All of us, from the Governor of the Bank of England downwards, are now primarily interested in preserving the stability of business, prices, and employment, and are not likely, when the choice is forced on us, deliberately to sacrifice these to outworn dogma, which had its value once, of 3 pounds, 17 shillings, 10 1/2 pence per ounce. Advocates of the ancient standard do not observe how remote it now is from the spirit and the requirements of the age. A regulated nonmetallic standard has slipped in unnoticed. It exists."
-- John Maynard Keynes, 1932, in "A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931"

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

One would think that a supposedly professional journalist like Larry and a supposedly accurate publication like the WSJ could at least get their quotes and facts correct. It was the gold standard that Keynes called a barbarous relic.

Yeah - I always laugh when everybody gets that one wrong.

Suddenly I am not comforted by the fact that I own way more gold than a NY Bank VP who is almost 20 years older than me. :eek:

Nice article EJ.

[fallout]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” - John Maynard Keynes.
I was late on the PM bandwagon. Luckily, I invested heavily in firearm ammunition when it was dirt cheap (by today's standards) and profited handsomely.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

Luckily, I invested heavily in firearm ammunition when it was dirt cheap (by today's standards) and profited handsomely.

Yes - I consider copper and lead to be PMs too Perhaps I should go long on gunpowder also.

Ammunition is up almost as much as gold, in a much much shorter timeframe. :cool:

[phirang]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

I'd rather own high-grade iron ore mines than a gold mine...

[doom&gloom]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

was not Eric calling for gold to end up around $2500 at some point?

[cofflandad]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

"ETFs generally, and gold ETFs especially, almost never work as advertised. We avoid them. And we have never once purchased a gold mining stock."

perhaps you should make this more evident to novice investors before making blanket statements such as "time to short commercial real estate" and thereby saving said novice investor the pain of his/her investment in SRS drop by circa 70% from the point of your advice. I know, I know, some always have the photographic memory to drudge up an old quote from Eric saying he warned you about such and such, but given the relative unwieldy maneuvering around your website the lay reader (yours truly) will not have the benefit of the totality of your advice. in addition, you say you don't like ETFs or mining companies, but don't leave it up to the commenters to give specific investment vehicles which might be a better alternative.

best regards,
Macaca

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

i notice these dials go all the way to 11! wow!

I can relate to that in my flying experience JK. When taking off in a Lear Jet you go to 110% of power to get to a safe flight level rapidly. Yes, you are pushing the engines past design for a short period of time but it's safer.

I don't know why you need 11 on sound though?:rolleyes: Maybe before the wife comes home???? :eek:

[FRED]

Re: Catching a gold basher - Eric Janszen

"ETFs generally, and gold ETFs especially, almost never work as advertised. We avoid them. And we have never once purchased a gold mining stock."

perhaps you should make this more evident to novice investors before making blanket statements such as "time to short commercial real estate" and thereby saving said novice investor the pain of his/her investment in SRS drop by circa 70% from the point of your advice.

Very sorry to hear that!

As noted earlier, our CRE "top" call in Time at last to short commercial real estate (June 2008) was correct to the month.

June 16, 2008 Forecast: Top in CRE, will fall from $15B to $8B by June 2010


Chart created and published June 2008

May 19, 2009 Actual: Got the timing of the top in CRE correct to the exact month, but the decline to $8B we forecast occurred more than twice as quickly than expected.


Chart created and published May 2009

We did not discuss any negative ETFs such as SRS in the article as these are not relevant to commercial real estate. At the time we suggested as "examples" the following:

1) Short a builder with exposure in retail in Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Denver, and For Worth

Example: Developers Diversified Realty Corp. (DDR)

2) Short an EFT with the most builder exposure in retail in Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Denver, and For Worth

Example: Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

How did these perform?

DDR traded then at $39, bottomed at $1.19, and now trades at $4.48.

FRT traded then at $73, bottomed at $38, and now trades at $54.

Even if one closed out short positions today, one still made money.

Even if SRS were relevant to CRE, we have never bought and held a short ETF for more than a few months nor have we ever said it was a good idea to do so.

We have repeatedly stated short ETFs cannot be held for more than a brief period.

Additionally, we have observed over the years that even over brief periods short ETFs frequently do not behave as expected.

Perhaps we need to repeat these points more often.