Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

[GRG55]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

What channels are you all watching? The tone of reporting has not changed by one iota, even since the Lehman crash.

I agree. EJ has clearly been hanging out with the converts [convicts?] on iTulip far too much lately [his comparatively prolific recent output serving as ample evidence]. He needs to watch more Bubblevision and get out into the real world more. Maybe we should pool together and buy him a plane ticket so he can visit Mega in Liverpool? :rolleyes:

[GRG55]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

The unemployed is absolute numbers of the left vertical axis. I don't think it correctly takes into account the increase in population. So I think it should be % of unemployed could be better measure. I think the unemployment in this recession is still not as bad as early 1980's.

Perhaps not yet, but the leading indicator weekly jobless claims trend and the record low work week don't paint an encouraging picture. One couldn't help but laugh at the main stream media claims that yesterday's jobs report came as a "surprise"...

[Slimprofits]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

I agree. EJ has clearly been hanging out with the converts [convicts?] on iTulip far too much lately [his comparatively prolific recent output serving as ample evidence]. He needs to watch more Bubblevision and get out into the real world more. Maybe we should pool together and buy him a plane ticket so he can visit Mega in Liverpool? :rolleyes:

I didn't say that EJ should watch more bubblevision or that bubblevision = the real world, so I have to assume that you agree with him that the tone of the reports about economic data crafted for an American audience has changed.

Jobless claim press releases masquerading as reporting:

http://news.google.com/news/more?um=...SS8oPq7Ie6e0_M

On a different variation of the same theme, over on CNBC, they're running a series of ads based on the "We told you it (the crash) would happen" theme.

[bart]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

I'm not sure how you chose the scales for the data, but using these scales, one thing that sticks out is the degree to which the current Continued claims exceeds the initial claims. It could simply be the result of the scales chosen, or maybe it really does mean something.

Wildly speculating; maybe it indicates the broadness of the depression. These numbers reflect job losses, but don't indicate anything about job creation. During normal business cycles or sector shifts in the economy it seems there's a much better chance to find a job in a different sector, or the need to rebuild inventories comes fast enough to prevent continued claims from exceeding initial claims on your graph. Maybe this steep crossover shows how deep and broad the depression is and that there are simply no new jobs to be found anywhere.

I didn't do anything special to the scaling, other than using both the left and right hand scales since the data is so different. Both scales start at zero too.

I probably should have linked both charts so the actual difference could be seen due to using raw data and then raw data adjusted by total workforce since that was your initial point, so here they are.










Your speculation is certainly as good as any - the continuing claims gap above initial claims is unprecedented in the entire data series history. Gallup poll tracking sure does confirm the difficulties in finding a job.

Perhaps its my cynicism, but it also wouldn't surprise me greatly to see a data revision sometime in the future to initial claims or even both series. Its also quite possible that there was a change to the series definitions of which I'm unaware. BLS BS is not an unknown concept.

[raja]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

My parents totally ignored the warnings last year from my brother and I about the impending stock crash. Lost 40%+ of their retirement, plus a large chunk of their home value, which while a modest home, sits between a $3.7 and a $7 million home, so potentially was worth a lot.( they've been there 25 years) They of course had to admit we were right and that my Uncle the stockbroker was wrong. Lesson learned right?


I asked my mom recently, "Are you hedged against inflation?" She replied " What's hedge mean?" And yes, my uncle still manages their money. :rolleyes: Dad is convinced things will snap back by the fall.

I had a similar experience with my relatives . . . .

Even though I proved to be right in my predictions -- born out by the fact that they lost a good chunk of their wealth -- they still don't call me to hear my opinions.

What is more amazing is that they believe financial advisers -- who obviously have a self-interest conflict -- over their own relative that only has their best interests at heart. I point out that that I've been studying the economy of the past 3 years, and have given them good advice so far, unlike their "experts" . . . yet they ignore me.

When/if they lose even more, and they come to me for help, I will have a clear conscience when I refuse. If I'm not worth listening to, certainly I'm not worthy of giving them a loan. :rolleyes:
Life punishes the ignorant and the arrogant . . . who am I to go against Natural Order?

[cobben]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

Here is a recent chart from Gene Inger's daily that does not look encouraging, this would be interesting to see extended back through the '30s.

7-2-excess labor supply truth revealed.png

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

That http://www.ingerletter.net chart will not be accessible to those of us who don't subscribe. Instead anytime we reload this iTulip web page, we get prompted for our Ingerletter login and password .

[cobben]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

Noticed that, think I managed to fix it.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

Noticed that, think I managed to fix it.

It's still prompting me for my Inger letter password - sorry.

The URL __http://www.ingerletter.net/id/images/7-2-excess%20labor%20supply%20truth%20revealed.png__ is simply not accessible to us unwashed cows.

[cobben]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

I saved it as a file and then uploaded it to iTulip, should work now.

[jk]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

I saved it as a file and then uploaded it to iTulip, should work now.

works fine. the "(millions)" in the chart title is funny.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

I saved it as a file and then uploaded it to iTulip, should work now.

Ok - it works now. I had to remove a second URL to that same chart, embedded in my quoting of your post, to finally fix it. Thanks!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

works fine. the "(millions)" in the chart title is funny.

Dang - you're right . Six million people unemployed people for each job opening. That's getting ugly.

[bart]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

Another way to view the existing employment picture. 1964 is as early as the data set goes.

[BigBagel]

Re: Physiognomy of Economic Depression - Eric Janszen

This, to me, is one of the more fascinating psychological aspects of this episode. People just do not want to think about it, even though we seem to be well beyond the point of no return. Even now, with the seriousness of the situation just dawning on a smattering of journalists, the possibility of this being as bad as the Great Depression is still scoffed at, while the idea that it may turn out to be worse is not even entertained.



From "ground-zero"?

To give a different perspective from Metro Detroit, I drove down to a few Tigers' games last month. I traveled into Pontiac from the west and then down Woodward Ave (25 miles) into the city of Detroit. Other than the staggering difference in wealth between the richest and poorest, the most notable difference to me was the lack of congestion since so many people have left the actual city of Detroit in the past decade. That really caught me off guard. I had not really considered that aspect of the "downturn".

In terms of being run down, the city has been for years. I have only been in the area for 6 years, and in that time, the rundown buildings with "For Sale" signs, in many instances, have been burned out or are starting to fall in on themselves. If you are lucky, someone has been industrious enough to raze the property to leave a vacant lot. This seems true once you get a mile or so out of downtown and continues for 5 miles anyway. If anyone has been in the area longer, I would appreciate a critique if this perspective seems a bit off. I only make it into downtown once or twice a year.

Sorry, no pictures. I forgot my camera.:rolleyes:

This NY Times op-ed is a nice add on to your details about Detroit:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/opinion/05barlow.html