The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

[metalman]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

I agree that the short-term picture depends on the Fed's moves, and I agree that Bernanke and the Fed are stupid enough to trigger another big crash. Bernanke is like a guy in his first-ever month of trading. You'd think he'd find an advisor who knew how to read a chart.

But they might not trigger another big crash. Did you see how quickly they backed off the headlines about the G-8 looking at draining stimulus money [BLUFF!], and did you see the headlines downplaying the chances of an interest rate increase later this year? Did you see the retreat in bets on a Fed Funds rate increase?

That tells me they are scared sh1tless of triggering a crash, and rightly so, because another crash will absolutely guarantee, among other things, an oil price spike to killer highs, instead of just a rocky climb to gruesome but still manageable prices.

Right now oil and the dollar look pretty comfortable in their trading wedges. We'll see.

agree 100%. but... time is not on their side.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

But they might not trigger another big crash.

Perhaps California will give them a hand :confused:.

Ben, Ben, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

Tim, Tim, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

Arnold, Arnold, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

(Silly take off on an old high school football cheer ;) ).

[Mashuri]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

As always, EJ, a very well thought out analysis. I think we're at a point where Bernanke cannot stop the impending second crash he helped to set up with the "Rally of Hope". We're in for another round of deflation and strengthening dollar after which gold should smash through the $1,000 barrier and never look back.

[D-Mack]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Perhaps California will give them a hand :confused:.

Ben, Ben, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

Tim, Tim, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

Arnold, Arnold, he's our man. If he can't crash it, nobody can.

(Silly take off on an old high school football cheer ;) ).

Most typical was the response of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who almost lost his cool on the issue. On recognizing EIR's White House correspondent, Bill Jones, at the Washington Post pre-dinner party, Geithner was at first somewhat taciturn. "You're getting yourself into real trouble in your attempted bailout of the toxic assets," Jones said. "Don't you realize that you will bring on hyperinflation?"

Geithner responded somewhat tight-lipped, "It ain't gonna happen," he said.

Jones continued his argument as to how Geithner's policy would lead to hyperinflation. Then suddenly the mild-mannered, urbane Treasury Secretary, suddenly underwent a Jekyll-and-Hyde- like transformation into something akin to the neighborhood bully. "It ain't gonna f***in' happen!" he half-shouted. "The Fed is an independent entity and they will make the call. And Congress will also have a say in the matter. They would stop it if they felt there were a problem." "I hope to hell they do," Jones replied. "We'll see," said Geithner, eager to discontinue the conversation.

http://www.larouchepac.com/node/10208

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ariann...mment_24166210

I wish there was video

[ASH]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Does this mean I can use a stock screener to find the stocks the highest p/e ratios and sell short these stocks?

Broadly speaking, I think that would be consistent with EJ's view that:

We are convinced that the markets have another big crash in the wings, as the Fed experiments with ways to reverse its creative anti-deflation policies in an environment of fiscal stimulus/deficit spending fueled economic growth, and that the rally off March 2009 lows has been driven first by technicals, then by sentiment, and most recently by funds who cannot be seen by their clients sitting in the dust behind funds that got into the rally early.

I don't personally trade on margin. If you choose to short stocks with high p/e ratios, I think you will accept significant risk related to your timing. The part of this essay that I zeroed in on says that the Fed is likely to trigger a further market crash, and that fundamentals won't sustain the recent rally, but it doesn't necessarily say when the Fed will stumble into this action, or when the market will realize that it is treading on air. (One possible clue is the timing of stimulus spending, but that's not exactly bullet-proof.) In my opinion, the essay doesn't give timing advice that is tradeable by selling stocks short, with acceptible risk.

I am a novice investor, but my perception of the risk involved is that if one is inclined to speculate on the market falling in response to future actions of the Fed (or simply the failure of hope in the face of fundamentals), then long-dated options contracts are to be preferred over trading on margin. But, as I say elsewhere, I'm not the right guy to be giving you trading advice. I'm simply the guy who's willing to take a stab at answering your question.

[c1ue]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

FYI - an interesting dynamic:

If the US is attempting to weaken the dollar - then one possible goal for the BRIC financiers to work toward is selling their own currencies in order to keep the relative exchange rates even (i.e. negate all or some of the US dollar weakening).

Ironically while this does serve to keep the dollar from weakening as quickly as it should, on the other hand these extra dollars can then be used to disintermediate the US from its own currency.

After all, the US dollars being 'quantitatively eased' are mostly stuck in big US banks. For the importers/exporters, small businesses, etc etc the dollar squeeze in the form of credit squeeze still exists.

I'm still considering what this means if true.

[Roughneck]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Aw come on I heard on WSJ radio this morning that cpi inflation came back lower than expected and inflation is not a concern.:rolleyes:

[WildspitzE]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Broadly speaking, I think that would be consistent with EJ's view that:

We are convinced that the markets have another big crash in the wings, as the Fed experiments with ways to reverse its creative anti-deflation policies in an environment of fiscal stimulus/deficit spending fueled economic growth, and that the rally off March 2009 lows has been driven first by technicals, then by sentiment, and most recently by funds who cannot be seen by their clients sitting in the dust behind funds that got into the rally early.

I don't personally trade on margin. If you choose to short stocks with high p/e ratios, I think you will accept significant risk related to your timing. The part of this essay that I zeroed in on says that the Fed is likely to trigger a further market crash, and that fundamentals won't sustain the recent rally, but it doesn't necessarily say when the Fed will stumble into this action, or when the market will realize that it is treading on air. (One possible clue is the timing of stimulus spending, but that's not exactly bullet-proof.) In my opinion, the essay doesn't give timing advice that is tradeable by selling stocks short, with acceptible risk.

I am a novice investor, but my perception of the risk involved is that if one is inclined to speculate on the market falling in response to future actions of the Fed (or simply the failure of hope in the face of fundamentals), then long-dated options contracts are to be preferred over trading on margin. But, as I say elsewhere, I'm not the right guy to be giving you trading advice. I'm simply the guy who's willing to take a stab at answering your question.

while not the same, and littered with it's own risks and flaws, another approach is to look at it by sector/industry. analyze the sectors that have the high p/e ratios, or whatever signals that you're looking for, but that have inverse etfs available against them.

just spit ballin' alternatives for shits and giggles, not making any recommendations.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

In a very real sense we are now in the mind mode that creates all those tiny upward movements in a long downtrend graph. Timing is everything. If you take the long term view, you will, as EJ seems to point, sit and wait with your funds in a position of least risk until certainty flushes over the current sentiment. However, if you are in it for the fun and games then taking the risk of stabbing at when and where is all a part of the fun. Some will win but many will, inevitably, lose out.

[BlackVoid]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

If the markets do crash, that should crash oil prices as well in my opinion.

If that happens I plan to go long on oil with as much money as I can (which is not that much).

[Slimprofits]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Down the memory hole they go. Within months, the events of the Cramer’s ear boxing, Bill Black’s warning, and Johnson’s epiphany will join those of last year’s winners of “So You Think You Can Dance?” in America’s collective gnat memory.

Harry Markopolos (on the SEC)...

[EJ]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Harry Markopolos (on the SEC)...

Harry Markopolos is an unusual case. He chose to stay out of sight.

Ross Kerber, an excellent reporter for The Boston Globe, wrote this story on Harry back in January.

The whistleblower

Dogged pursuer of Madoff wary of fame

A month ago, Harry Markopolos was an accountant unknown outside Boston's financial community.

Now the slight, bookish 52-year-old from Whitman is under siege. Christmas week, he spent Monday being interviewed by "60 Minutes," Tuesday preparing to testify in Washington, and Wednesday sorting through pitches from book authors and movie producers. His mother-in-law now answers the door at his suburban stucco house and shoos away the reporters who knock at all hours.

Markopolos is hoping the buzz around him will soon die down so he can resume a low profile. He now works on whistleblower cases, conducting forensic accounting analyses for attorneys who sue companies under the False Claims Act and other statutes, which he said is best done with a certain degree of anonymity.

Ross wrote a story on me years ago. He's old school, tough and rigorous.

Speaking of reporters I know, my old college pal Carol Rosenberg is getting herself into trouble again.

Military and Media Clash In Complaint

Navy Spokesman Alleges Abuse by Miami Reporter

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, July 25, 2009

Tensions between journalists and military officials are nothing new. But a bitter series of clashes between a top Navy spokesman and a Miami Herald military reporter reached a new, eye-opening level this week.

In a letter to the paper's editor, Cmdr. Jeffrey Gordon accused Carol Rosenberg of "multiple incidents of abusive and degrading comments of an explicitly sexual nature." Gordon, who deals primarily with the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, prison, said in the letter that this was a "formal sexual harassment complaint" and asked the Herald for a "thorough investigation."

"Her behavior has been so atrocious over the years," Gordon said in an interview. "I've been abused worse than the detainees have been abused."

I'll know that financial reporters in the U.S. are starting to do their jobs when a Goldman Sachs executive files a complaint against a financial reporter.



I'm not holdng my breath.

[Ghent12]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

Harry Markopolos is an unusual case. He chose to stay out of sight.

Ross Kerber, an excellent reporter for The Boston Globe, wrote this story on Harry back in January.

The whistleblower

Dogged pursuer of Madoff wary of fame

A month ago, Harry Markopolos was an accountant unknown outside Boston's financial community.

Now the slight, bookish 52-year-old from Whitman is under siege. Christmas week, he spent Monday being interviewed by "60 Minutes," Tuesday preparing to testify in Washington, and Wednesday sorting through pitches from book authors and movie producers. His mother-in-law now answers the door at his suburban stucco house and shoos away the reporters who knock at all hours.

Markopolos is hoping the buzz around him will soon die down so he can resume a low profile. He now works on whistleblower cases, conducting forensic accounting analyses for attorneys who sue companies under the False Claims Act and other statutes, which he said is best done with a certain degree of anonymity.

Ross wrote a story on me years ago. He's old school, tough and rigorous.

Speaking of reporters I know, my old college pal Carol Rosenberg is getting herself into trouble again.

Military and Media Clash In Complaint

Navy Spokesman Alleges Abuse by Miami Reporter

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, July 25, 2009

Tensions between journalists and military officials are nothing new. But a bitter series of clashes between a top Navy spokesman and a Miami Herald military reporter reached a new, eye-opening level this week.

In a letter to the paper's editor, Cmdr. Jeffrey Gordon accused Carol Rosenberg of "multiple incidents of abusive and degrading comments of an explicitly sexual nature." Gordon, who deals primarily with the Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, prison, said in the letter that this was a "formal sexual harassment complaint" and asked the Herald for a "thorough investigation."

"Her behavior has been so atrocious over the years," Gordon said in an interview. "I've been abused worse than the detainees have been abused."

I'll know that financial reporters in the U.S. are starting to do their jobs when a Goldman Sachs executive files a complaint against a financial reporter.



I'm not holdng my breath.

With respect, sir, your friend appears to have been quite unprofessional in those instances with the Navy Commander. There are a thousand and one ways to pursue a story, and this way was a poor choice.

[EJ]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

With respect, sir, your friend appears to have been quite unprofessional in those instances with the Navy Commander. There are a thousand and one ways to pursue a story, and this way was a poor choice.

I've known Carol for 30 years. I am sure she was disrespectful, profane, and utterly ruthless in her pursuit of this story. I can try to second guess her reasons for taking the approach she did, but I trust her judgment.

Real journalism is not a knitting circle. Few people have any idea what goes into getting a real story, versus the advertising we see every day posing as journalism. One in a million has the stomach for it.

I have never known her to go after a good guy. Every institution has bad guys, even the Navy.

This story will be great for Carol. Her outstanding record will come to light.

My father was a Navy man, by the way. Ran away from home in 1924 when he was 17, lied about his age, and joined. Later, during WWII, he returned to the Navy to design and test torpedoes in Panama. Had some great stories.

[metalman]

Re: The cheh shaped recovery – Part I: End of the beginning - Eric Janszen

i get the idea... we know < 1% of it...