Deflation fare thee well – Part I: In search of real returns in an unreal world - Eric Janszen

[metalman]

Re: Deflation fare thee well – Part I: In search of real returns in an unreal world - Eric Janszen

Metal - well, if the prospective inflationary event is a five year run, how a few weeks difference when issuing the call going to make much difference? On a five year timescale for runaway inflation to play out according to script, a month one way or the other seems like small potatoes. Ja? Oder nicht?

true nuff. see what jimmy dug up from mar 09...

Originally Posted by FRED
Will the US markets in 2009 be like the Nikkei in 1991, the second year of the Japanese debt deflation, the year before fiscal stimulus kicked in?

Debt Deflation Bear Market: Dec. 29, 2009???

That wouldn't be so bad, only down 7% for 2009 with two big Fiscal Stimulus Hope Rallies, the first 14% and the second 12%. But we don't think that's how it's going to go. More later.

14% fiscal stimulus rally off dec. dow ro 9k and change, another 12% later, off 7% for the year, ending around where it is today.

skips the dip to new lows in mar. market is now off from dec. 08 level when this chart was posted, not up 14% in this 'rally'.

just goes to show... one man's rally is another's worst case forecast.