Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

[occdude]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Deflation, inflation, dollar devaluation inflation. With dollar printing and the fact that the dollar is the international reserve currency, you should see inflation kick up in places outside the country with large dollar reserves, namely China and oil producing nations.

This will force them to ask for more dollars and will lead to inflation in the US and possibly a currency crisis. The episode before the deflationary period in the fall of 08, with increased oil prices and a relatively mild bout of inflation will rear its ugly head again this summer. The government will be forced by our creditors to adopt more fiscal discipline which will lead to a renewed deflationary period.

Look for the inflationary-deflationary cycles to get more extreme until they meet with gold being the representative of inflation and the stock market representing deflation Cycles should last roughly 6mos a piece with periods like the one at current, that seem normal as one force subsides and the other kicks in.

[Supercilious]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Hmmm ... I got no reply yet from FRED at my question on the disinflation issue.

Thanks anyway for the new title and the avatar. I'm just curious if the gift was due to making fun of metalman or for not being convinced about the disinflation theory, the TIPS graphical theory, the Dollar Ratchet theory or the Peak Cheap Oil theory

Someone must been very frustrated and out of arguments to resort to such juvenile admin humor....

Do I have any chance to get a reply if the official position is that we are still experiencing disinflation?

[metalman]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Hmmm ... I got no reply yet from FRED at my question on the disinflation issue.

Thanks anyway for the new title and the avatar. I'm just curious if the gift was due to making fun of metalman or for not being convinced about the disinflation theory, the TIPS graphical theory, the Dollar Ratchet theory or the Peak Cheap Oil theory

Someone must been very frustrated and out of arguments to resort to such juvenile admin humor....

Do I have any chance to get a reply if the official position is that we are still experiencing disinflation?

ha ha! great avatar, symbols. you request it? i now respect your sense of humor about yourself. damn cool. maybe i was wrong about you.

ej's latest is a transition between disinflation/deflation and inflation... dollar leveling off. last week the fed failed to keep the 10 yr below the magic 3%. how come?

china canceled usa's credit card?

bond market not buying the low inflation bs already? time for the ben to make another dire speech about deflation, no?

peak cheap oil... still on. peak cheap + demand crash = $51 vs $10 today.

dollar ratchet... that's why the dollar didn't crash ala schiff. do his clients have any money left to benefit when the dollar hits 40?

what's the 'tips graphical theory'? :confused:

[NFN_NLN]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I pulled out of the stock market at the right time (early '08). I didn't buy PMs because they had already shot up by the time I started looking into them. No big loss. After the crash (fall '08) I put a small fraction of money into commodities. They did extremely (40% well) but I put such a small amount of money it didn't really do much overall.

I've missed out on the ~20% rally since the mega crash. Which is fine by me because I also missed out on the ~-42% dip. I'm leery about putting money into the market due to the DOW-3000 nutts. My gut tells me to wait until summer '09 earnings reports which should result in a pull back before buying commodities and blue chips? I don't want to buy gold, if anything I would buy platinum.

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

Unfortunately for your request, it seems to me that we here on the iTulip forums don't do much of that. Rather we react, usually favorably and sometimes with significant added detail and insight, to the long term analysis of the economic situation by the forum's owners and a few other fine contributors. We also jaw and jab and throw in less related comments -- got to season up the mix.

[bart]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I pulled out of the stock market at the right time (early '08). I didn't buy PMs because they had already shot up by the time I started looking into them. No big loss. After the crash (fall '08) I put a small fraction of money into commodities. They did extremely (40% well) but I put such a small amount of money it didn't really do much overall.

I've missed out on the ~20% rally since the mega crash. Which is fine by me because I also missed out on the ~-42% dip. I'm leery about putting money into the market due to the DOW-3000 nutts. My gut tells me to wait until summer '09 earnings reports which should result in a pull back before buying commodities and blue chips? I don't want to buy gold, if anything I would buy platinum.

Looking for retard simple constructive criticism.

1. Lots of folk did worse, give yourself an atta-boy or two.
2. On a regular basis - add to winners, drop losers.
3. Consider your dollar exposure risk to a "currency event".
4. Invest in educating yourself more.

[skyson]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Invest in educating yourself more.

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

Follow the current financial collapse closely. After a few years, you will know much about macro economics.

[bart]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I want to study macro-economics in depth, where do I start? Thanks.

I wish I had a straight and simple answer.

There are large differences in the major schools - Austrian, Keynes, Friedman and the Chicago school - and all of them have significant shortcomings. And then there's the political and vested interest and spin influences on the basic concepts, the largest of which revolves around what inflation is, how its defined and what causes it.

A visit to a library or large book store or both is probably the best overall idea, and look for books that make sense to you personally. A glossary like iTulip's or mine is also invaluable - the terminology can get quite messy.

[Supercilious]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

ha ha! great avatar, symbols. you request it? i now respect your sense of humor about yourself. damn cool. maybe i was wrong about you.

Well, I asked a Fred or EJ a question trying to understand if the official iTulip position with regard to "no deflation, only disinflation" , has changed ... and I get a great new avatar and title,... I guess this proves my point, beyond any doubt. When FRED runs out of arguments resorts to cheap juvenile attacks against all those who dare to question the official iTulip position.

ej's latest is a transition between disinflation/deflation and inflation... dollar leveling off.

If I remember correctly not long ago you were parroting the mantra "no deflation, just disinflation and then a lot of inflation". And everybody who dared to question that was subjected to your misplaced an low IQ rhetoric. Metalman do you still believe in the "no deflation, just disinflation and then a lot of inflation" concept? Are you going to attack EJ now ?

last week the fed failed to keep the 10 yr below the magic 3%. how come?

china canceled usa's credit card?

Stop the BS metalman. I don't think you have the required depth to understand what really happened with China reducing the treasuries purchase.

dollar ratchet... that's why the dollar didn't crash ala schiff. do his clients have any money left to benefit when the dollar hits 40?

I thought FRED made an admission that the call on the $780/oz floor for the gold price as indicated by Dollar Ratchet Theory was wrong. At that time when I said that gold can move bellow that, you also made clueless chart attacks in order to sustain the official "truth", ....which was obviously wrong.

Metaman I hope you do realize your aggressive parroting is actually disservice to iTulip. It saps the credibility of the official position.

what's the 'tips graphical theory'? :confused:

I think the TIPS Graphical Theory ( or the TIPS Whoah Theory) was summarized by FRED here

[skyson]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Many thanks to pythoniccow and bart.

[MarkL]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I also find setting your avatar to PeeWee and not responding a bit inappropriate. Are you sure this was one of the system admins and not a hacker? I've spoken with Eric a couple of times and he's always seemed the consummate professional and I'm sure would have an answer to your Disinflation vs Deflation question if he was aware of it.

[metalman]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I also find setting your avatar to PeeWee and not responding a bit inappropriate. Are you sure this was one of the system admins and not a hacker? I've spoken with Eric a couple of times and he's always seemed the consummate professional and I'm sure would have an answer to your Disinflation vs Deflation question if he was aware of it.

fred posted a year ago at least that non-subscriber questions don't get answered until ej's done with the subscriber questions. he's way behind... like 20+ behind.

[metalman]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

Well, I asked a Fred or EJ a question trying to understand if the official iTulip position with regard to "no deflation, only disinflation" , has changed ... and I get a great new avatar and title,... I guess this proves my point, beyond any doubt. When FRED runs out of arguments resorts to cheap juvenile attacks against all those who dare to question the official iTulip position.

oh, so you didn't ask for the pee wee title and avatar. agree it's not fair if fred gave you your new avatar and title by fiat. how about we do it by a vote of members? i vote you get a picture of a troll and the title 'tickerforum troll'.

your constant attempt to poke holes in arguments here, silly repetitive conspiracy theories to explain everything, silly repetitive lame 'theories' like 'fed hammer drill', can't tell prisonplanet from pbs...

If I remember correctly not long ago you were parroting the mantra "no deflation, just disinflation and then a lot of inflation". And everybody who dared to question that was subjected to your misplaced an low IQ rhetoric. Metalman do you still believe in the "no deflation, just disinflation and then a lot of inflation" concept? Are you going to attack EJ now ?

yep, still true. no deflation spiral. dead on. 100% accurate. feeling sorry for your pals over at tickerforum? didn't he say inflation was impossible? deflation spiral inevitable?

Stop the BS metalman. I don't think you have the required depth to understand what really happened with China reducing the treasuries purchase.

i've already forgotten symbols' conspiracy theory #243 that explains china's purchases of treasuries. what's it this week?

I thought FRED made an admission that the call on the $780/oz floor for the gold price as indicated by Dollar Ratchet Theory was wrong. At that time when I said that gold can move bellow that, you also made clueless chart attacks in order to sustain the official "truth", ....which was obviously wrong.

got it. everything itulip says is wrong and everything pee wee says is right. come to think of it, pee wee is perfect for you. after reading any one of your posts all i have to do is close my eyes and imagine pee-wee giggling 'he-he!' and it all makes sense.

Metaman I hope you do realize your aggressive parroting is actually disservice to iTulip. It saps the credibility of the official position.

point taken. your nonstop trolling doesn't help yours.

I think the TIPS Graphical Theory ( or the TIPS Whoah Theory) was summarized by FRED here

so what?

[EJ]

Re: Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen

I've returned from a trip to find a development that troubles me. I understand that you received less than respectful treatment here. Please accept my apology.

I have run several companies. One thing I have learned from it is that if you do not encourage dissent among the group, you wind up with a weak organization. By the same token if you allow disrespect among the group and of yourself, everything goes to hell.

Members of iTulip will treat each other with respect, and the standard applies doubly in iTulip administration's treatment of members. The rule also applies to members' treatment of iTulip management.

To answer your question, after dozens of interviews in 2006 and 2007 before the debt crisis, the terms "deflation" and "inflation" were generally interpreted by readers as meaning a deflation spiral as occurred in the U.S. in the 1930s and hyperinflation as occurred in Argentina in 2001 and in many nations throughout the 20th century.

To distinguish between this generally accepted meaning of the term deflation and the kind of deflation we expected, we adopted the term "disinflation" here to mean a falling rate of inflation managed by aggressive government intervention but not a self-reinforcing deflation spiral as occurred in the 1930s.

To distinguish between hyperinflation and the kind of inflation we expected, not hyperinflation but more as in the U.S. in the 1970s, albeit more severe, we use the term "high inflation" here.

Disinflation is a brief period of deflation limited to goods and services prices in the Production/Consumption Economy but not reinforced by forced liquidation of the same items purchased with credit as occurred in the 1930s. High inflation is inflation that does not exceed 100% in any one year.

The economics textbooks are not much help here. They do not even distinguish between the kind of rare deflation spiral that the U.S. experienced in the 1930s and the brief periods of deflation that Japan has experienced off and on since 1992 that we call disinflation.

Adding to the confusion, we forecast asset price deflation in the FIRE Economy which tends to occur as a self-reinforcing downward price spiral during debt deflations, except here again we expected radical government intervention.

The term "debt deflation" adds even further confusion, even though the definition is clear and simple. The confusion arises because debt can be deflated by defaults but also by rising nominal cash flows. Creditors do not win in either case and prefer a managed version of the former over a runaway version of either.

We will not see the deflation spiral that Mike Shedlock, Karl Denniger, Paul Krugman, Steve Keen, and other forecasters predicted in 2006 and 2007. In fact, commentators are already talking about inflation not more than a few months after "deflation" was widely feared. Soon enough the inflationists will be the majority again, after the fact of inflation is further confirmed by commodity prices, but not interest rates.

As contrarians we grow even more critical of our theories when we see large numbers of previously antagonistic economics commentators adopt in the moment forecasts that were no more than a theory of ours two or three years ago.

Unfortunately for those of us in the prognostication business, the fact of broad adoption confirms only what we knew then; it says nothing about the next two or three years. The drawing board future is continuously erased by the present, and all you have to show for it is what you learned from the exercise of drawing, which is at least some advantage.