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As a said a few months ago, in the near to mid term gold had no economic driver. If the depression continues, it drops or goes nowhere. If deflation stops or starts up into some inflation, it will be seen as a market recovery and people will liquidate their positions to buy stock etc. The only use I had for gold is a hedge against political instability.
Margin is like Speed - it kills. Don't take ANY trading positions in Gold (or anything else) unless and until you can read charts. I learned that the HARD way almost thirty years ago.:eek:
The real fireworks in Gold are probably a year away. I sold all of my gold stocks and most of my CEF on this man's advice, but I'm going to add to my bullion coin holdings if spot reaches $850 or lower.
This guy is the absolute best chart technician I have discovered in thirty years of trading. He called a top in gold back in February.
I bought more gold (a LOT of it) at $920 an ounce and Im not missing a moment's sleep. If anything, Im feeling rather relaxed by the whole episode. The way I see it Ive got BULLION in a vault which I can always get my hands on (some exceptional circumstances notwithsatinding). what Im not holding is paper currency which will lose value faster than anything we've seen in recent memory. I am NOT holding stocks of any companies in a brokerage account in the UK or the US which could experience a currency crisis - and slap asset controls.
My investment thesis is extreme - I am preparing for a currency crisis (and not a piddly one like Iceland) but a major one. When THAT crisis hits, you'll see physical bullion disappear so fast, you won't be able to get your hands on it. Can I predict when it will happen? no. But what I can do now is buy it when its possible to buy in exchange for paper currency that still has some value.
15-20 percent price moves don't bother me. Thats not my forte - picking intermediate tops and bottoms. All I can say is that the final gold top in THIS bull market is some way off yet.
Margin is like Speed - it kills. Don't take ANY trading positions in Gold (or anything else) unless and until you can read charts. I learned that the HARD way almost thirty years ago.:eek:
The real fireworks in Gold are probably a year away. I sold all of my gold stocks and most of my CEF on this man's advice, but I'm going to add to my bullion coin holdings if spot reaches $850 or lower.
This guy is the absolute best chart technician I have discovered in thirty years of trading. He called a top in gold back in February.
PS**PLEASE don't pass this file around**
I'll buy Gold Bullion if either of these conditions are met - Gold falls below $800/oz or price at End of April last week
I had an alert that I set for myself when silver hit 12 dollars... Silver, anyone? Apmex has a sale on silver rounds this weekend. Are rounds any good, or should I stick with Eagles & Maples?
If you want to assess your portfolio daily, you got to trade daily.
If you're content with yearly performance, then never mind the daily/weekly/3-month draw-downs.
If it consoles you at all, Richard Russell (of Dow theory) wrote in early April that his 2nd biggest long position EVER is now in gold, he's waiting it to go to $3000-$5000. He hasn't held this big long position in 40 years.
Now, that is a person I would listen to.
Weekly market fluctuations on the real gold time frames are just noise.
And yes, gold can go below $850, and if it does, I'll buy a lot.
I see the price decline in both Gold and Silver as counter move to bear market rally. The funds are simply pushing the price of paper Gold and Silver down, while buying stock market indexes.
The fundamentals did not change a bit. I already started adding to my core positions at $860 level again.
Love this thread. I've been questioning some of my decisions and I have to agree, the fundamentals have not changed. Even though I just made a large purchase around 890 I will add more if it gets near 800 or hopefully lower. Lower prices..... bring it!!!
be cool man, you can sleep at night. If theres a currency crash, war in the mideast, coming inflation you have something of real value. If the stock market goest to the moon, and gold tanks you still have your crummy job to feed yourself.
Think you're gold will go below 500 and stick? How about the S&P going to 500 and sticking? I'll take the S&P falling and sticking as the most likely outcome.
silver rounds are awesome
forget paying a big premium for eagles or whatnot when it comes to silver.
avoid buying bars of 100oz or more. Stick to 10oz bars or 1oz rounds.
From a price perspective, why would you recommend this? Don't people pay bigger premiums above spot, the smaller the quantity?
The non-price possible reasons I can see to buy smaller silver demoninations are:
- You can't afford bigger ones
- You can sell smaller denominations easier, though here in Canada, you can sell your 100+ oz bars back to the banks at any time.
- 1000 oz bars don't fit in 99% of bank deposit boxes
- 1000 oz bar deliveries have high shipping costs depending on where they are shipping from (~31Kg per bar).
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