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MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

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  • MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

    We've read and understood all the sophisticated arguments as to why "rank and overt manipulation" in the precious metals has taken second place to massive hedge fund liquidations. I can accept that. The recent violent correction in the PM's is then more likely a direct result of a large group of hedge fund speculative position unwinding.

    With regard to the anecdotal reports below, disregard any conspiracist murmurings. That's not the point. Just concentrate on the availability issues reported below. Can anyone point out any OTHER commodities which are evindencing such truly strange and anomalous behavior as is silver?

    What the heck does any of this info below have to do with "deleveraging hedge funds"?

    ==========

    QUOTE EXTRACTED FROM BELOW:

    BNS.. IS EMPTY.. (Bank of Nova Scotia)

    Was invited for a private tour of the BNS vault

    Hi Bill - Waited for 2 months for a tour of the Bank of Nova Scotia vault. Just came back and I was amazed at what I saw. Given the amount of paper certificates out there I expected to see rooms filled with silver.

    Silver:

    They only have 60x 1000 oz bars as their working supply.
    They have zero 100 oz.
    They have zero 10 oz.
    They have zero silver maples, silver eagles, zero 1 oz rounds.
    They have 1x 5 Oz silver bar. They have 10 million Oz in custody for Sprott and Butterfield.

    I asked where is the silver that is backing the scotiabank certificates? The vault manager said New York I guess.

    I asked have you ever had inventory this low. They said, been here since 1985, never seen anything like this, we used to have shelves full of small oz silver. He said waiting for 3 months for 100 oz, 5 oz and 1 oz but cant get any supply. They have allocated silver and gold as well in large safety deposit shelves but wasn’t able to count that. Used to be under impression that gold and silver certificates are allocated because they have an exact quantity of metal to the decimal point. Now I know otherwise the metal is NOT there, though they claim it is in NY.

    Gold

    They have 210x 400 Oz bars
    They have 2800x 400 Oz bars in custody for I shares
    They seem to have ~4000 maples, ~500 eagles coins, 10x1 kg bars, 10x 1 kg gold in small nugget form for jewellers. I asked where is the gold that is backing the certificates. The vault manager said, the BNS vault in NYC is 5x larger than this one so it is likely housed there.

    All the best - Lenny Organ - President - Elite Cardiology Group Inc

    ==========

    Silver Stock Report - MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out)

    by Jason Hommel, September 5, 2008

    I asked my readers to go to their local coin shop on Tuesday, September 2, at 2PM. On September 3rd, I published the first 10 reports from my readers. Here are the rest, about 25 more. They are almost identical. No customers. No silver. Long delivery times, or unknown wait times. What little silver there is, is often selling at shockingly high premiums, and going higher.

    How can this be? No customers AND no silver? Very simple, as I've explained many times over the years. Less than 1 person in 1000 is interested in silver. Only $1 billion of total investor demand per year. Silver investment is an extremely tiny market, ridiculously tiny compared to world finance. There is 100,000 times more money in paper bonds than in silver. Often in the world, in cities of millions, there is only one major large bullion trader, and these days, they are sold out. This is exactly why silver must go up, and exactly why silver is such a great bargain. Nobody wants it, (relatively speaking) while everyone needs it. Today, there is "record" demand greater than ten times normal in places, yet, still no lines. The public, who used to sell, to help fill the supply/demand gap, is no longer selling, and is now buying. The coin dealers looked at the prior customer selling, and from their perspective, "nobody wants silver". From an investor's perspective, the former public selling was an "unsustainable supply source" that was filling a supply/demand gap, that cannot be filled, except by rising prices. This current change in the market structure of the silver market could easily be forseen by anyone, yet some people continue to deny it today.

    COMEX paper prices continue to diverge from physical. It may well be that the premiums on real silver, are creating the incentive for people to sell out of their paper futures contracts, and buy real silver, instead, since paper silver prices are not keeping up with the real thing.

    NEWS: Barclays, sponsor of the silver ETF, SLV, needs £7.5 billion in capital, and is clearly in trouble! I have warned about the integrity of SLV, because its silver is unauditable, with JP Morgan the custodian, who also uses many sub custodians, so the ETF is basically reliant upon the promises of JP Morgan and its creditors, and JP Morgan has the largest derivatives exposure of all banks, by far, $72 Trillion, with a T.

    http://www.bankingtimes.co.uk/04092008-barclays-may-face-75bn-shortfall/

    In case I'm not clear: SELL THE SILVER ETF, SLV, AND BUY REAL SILVER.

    Where can you find silver, since people below cannot find any? Right now, try apmex.com. They are reliable, and show their inventory. They have 257 100 oz. bars of JM and Engelhard bars as low as $1.49 over spot, which are a wonderful bargain.

    ==========

    Jason:

    I am an avid reader of yours. On August 30th, I went to four antique shops in Indiana where I have been buying silver over the past several years (supplied by local coin dealers). During this period, they had plenty of coins (Morgans,Peace dollars,1 oz rounds and bars).

    In all these shops, their inventory was low or non-existence -- there were no Eagles available and I bought all the Morgan & Peace Dollars they had (28 coins) and all their 1 oz silver rounds (14).

    Also, I have been buying silver rounds/bars from a dealer in Colorado -- he has been out of silver for the last several weeks and just got a shipment of 100 oz bars.This has never happened before (I've been a customer of his over the past 3 years).

    Just thought I'd let you know of my experienced.

    Ed P. - Carmel,IN

    ==========

    Sorry I didn't get this to you before your 'TwosDay Silver Shortage Reports' was published.

    And my experience at San Rafael Rare Coin was identical - no lines; no customers; no bars left;no rounds; and i bought him out of his last $2000 of 90%. He was taking orders but not taking money or deposits; he reported a 'few' weeks delay to fulfill good faith orders taken; he explains the shortage as a production issue with JM & E.

    Since your are in NorCal, do you have any experience with this coin shop owner. He seems very honest and forthcoming.

    FYI, have you discovered 'Feed Demon' yet - it's a way of aggregating all the RRS feeds from multiple websites. Really great tool, esp keeping up on silver & world economics news.

    Regards, +Greg

    ==========

    Jason, I went to my favorite local coin shop on Tuesday at 2:00 pm.He had no silver dimes, as somebody had bought all that he had. Hehad some half dollars, but somebody had already paid for them. He hadmaybe 50 silver eagles of different dates but was asking $15.00 eachwhen the spot price was about $12.77. He also had 3 one ounce barsthat looked like they had been through hell. There were a smallamount of silver quarters, maybe about 200. I bought a roll for$90.00 and felt lucky. I asked the dealer what was going on, and heresponded that he thought the paper silver market was responsible forthe confusion. He said people have been buying silver like crazy eversince last year. This shortage looks real to me.

    ==========

    CNI, where I usually buy my bullion has a hoard of silver eagles which they are offering at $3.36 over spot in lots of 500

    I saw the inside of their silver vault 2 weeks ago when they had no 100 Oz. bars. they had what I would estimate by the size of the stack, about 200,000 Oz of rounds in boxes of 500. They also had about 30,000 Oz of coin bags, I believe all quarters. I know these as I own 20 of those boxes among my stock. At the time, they were offering generic rounds at $1.50 over spot. Two weeks ago, CNI would not commit to a date certain for delivery of 100 Oz bars.

    Regards, Stan

    ==========

    Jason, I visited my local, coin shop at exactly 2pm Tues. Only one person was there dealing for a coin. I asked to purchase some 10oz bars and Jack informed me that he had no bullion at all. JHe offered me some junk dollars and said he had one box of Silver eagles. So, I asked for some, he said come back tomorrow, I have them at home. So, I asked Jack if he had heard of Jason Hommel, he stated that he had. Then I told him what you had predicted. He explained that he didn`t know when he would get more bars. Seems like you struck the nail on the head. Sincerely, Phil Spokane, WA

    ==========

    Hi Jason,

    I wasn't able to make it to my local shop but I did call a friend of mine in Seattle and told him to go and try to buy some silver.

    He called Northgate Rare Coins and Precious Metals who informed him that they had nil as far as inventories go.

    He informed the gentleman that he wanted to buy about 500 ounces of silver in whatever form and he was told there would be a 4 week wait and would have to pay up front, $1.25 over spot.

    He called one other shop that was also out. The shop owner said he just got in a shipment the other day of 500 oz's and within an hour a buyer came in and it was gone. He was willing to put an order in for another 500 oz's at .80 over spot for cash up front -- Guess he doesn't value the premium or the shortage.

    Would you happen to know of any other folks in Toledo, OH that you are in contact with? I'd like to hear what their experiences have been like. You can forward my email to them if you wish.

    Thanks,

    Regards,

    Steve Pratt
    Toledo, OH

    finnthecelt@yahoo.com

    ==========

    Hi Jason,

    Tuesday at two I called my local coin shop, (just had knee replacement and couldn't drive), we are on a first name basis. I asked to buy 100 single ounce rounds and he chuckled and told me he had zero stock. He offered to buy any I would sell him at $2.00 over spot. I declined his offer. He told me he was even having a hard time getting his supplier to commit to availability for the near future even. He did not know when he would have stock. He said he had plenty of gold for sale. He also reads your emails as diligently as I do. I agree with your views 100% on the silver market, keep up the great work.
    Mel W. Indiana/Michigan state line, coin shop in Roseland, IN by the University of Notre Dame

    ==========

    Nobody has any silver around my neck of the woods. Coin shops are only ordering rounds (blanks) Pay full price up front. They are selling a few eagles at 18$ a piece. I told them I had silver for sale at a minimum of 50$ an ounce, got a good laugh. After that questionable silver blank I bought, I don't plan to buy any more rounds. Only Eagles or 100 oz bars

    ==========

    Jason

    My local "wholesaler" buys from local shops and walk ins.
    I asked about silver eagles over the last few weeks.
    The first time he had one tube at $385
    The second time I got three at $342.
    The third time he told me he was out.
    He later said that he had had two monster boxes and sold one at $25.00 per ounce.
    The buyer wanted the second one also but the dealer said that he was not going to part with it even at that price.

    (Editor's note: ebay.com, while expensive, is much cheaper.

    ==========

    Jason, Started reading your articles about a year ago...On july 31st 2008, i bought my first 100 silver maple 1 oz -- Every week in August i went to the kitco store in Montreal and bought 100 maples with no problem but on september 2nd, around 2 p.m. they told me on the 9th floor that they had no more silver to sell...Disapointed -- Cannot understand, if there is such a shortage, that the price of silver is not going higher -- Thanks for your incoming stock report -- Pierre from Québec, Canada

    EDITOR'S NOTE: KITCO HAS NO MORE SILVER TO SELL IN QUEBEC?!

    ==========

    Hi Jason,

    Went to the local coin shop on Tuesday and found myself looking into an empty (bullion) show case for the most part. There were some silver rounds but no 5, 10, or 100 oz bars. I cleaned 'em out of the rounds with about three hundred bucks.

    No promises, I could order more if I were willing to wait 6-8 weeks for delivery which could not be guaranteed but would still be required to pay up front.
    There were also some silver eagles, about two thousand $$$ worth,(the last ones in stock) and they were $25.00 each!

    Peace,

    Richard in Montana

    PS Jason I find it interesting that bullion has dropped to where it currently is but the silver with the government stamp (eagles) is selling for what spot price probably OUGHT to be. Is this a fair guess? What's up with that? Are things getting SO corrupt that honest (PHYSICAL) investors are being hoodwinked by the paper guys? What do you do? Is 'sit tight and be right' a good philosophy in this wildly confusing market? I guess I know how you feel but I notice that even you have sold some ozs recently --

    ==========

    Dear Jason, Thank you for all the important information you are putting out on your website. I'm a small investor and am purchasing 1 oz rounds. I went to a local coin shop/precious metals dealer again on Tuesday and had good results. No one was in the shop but the owner, an employee, and my wife and I. This shop has been there since the 70's so I assume they have a decent reputation. They recognized me from a purchase of 1 oz rounds about 3 weeks ago & I didn't even ring the buzzer as the door unlocked as soon as they saw us. No one else was in the shop at 2 p.m. I asked if they had anymore 1 oz rounds & he said they were sold out. I asked if he heard of you and he put out some false press on you saying you're the guy that uses the Bible to sell your metals. I said there was a shortage of gold & silver, especially silver and he said that was not true. He named a bank in the Northwest that I don't remembe r that had millions of oz for sale. He said the reputable coin dealers in California hate you for being a false propagandist. I knew he was misinformed. I saw a pile of large silver bullion coins laying on his desk & asked to see one. He told me they were a collectors item someone brought in & sold them to him. They were minted by Franklin mint and mostly depicted engravings of English & other European historical events & they were strikingly beautiful. I asked about the larger than usual size & he said that each coin was .999 pure silver and weighed exactly l.333 oz. What do you want for them I asked. He said spot price of $13.05 per oz and let me have them for $17.40 per coin and I bought all 45 coins for $783 for 60 oz. total. I was happy you had your readers do this on Tuesday. I would ask if you share this letter that you leave out the part about him not thinking a lot of you and what the purchase was as he reads your letters. Thanks again for wising us up on silver. My wife and I went to a McAlvaney seminar here in our city about 3 weeks ago. As you know, he's been in the metals business since 1972 & writes a monthly newsletter. He too says that the metals are about to shoot the moon & that for the next 2 years silver will out perform gold. You may call McAlvaney for his DVD seminar about 2 1/2 hrs. long God bless you and guide you in all that you do. Buddy Kae

    ==========
    Jason,

    I have visited my local silver shops here in Indianapolis and it is cost prohibitive to buy from them due to large spreads and having to pay sales tax in Indiana. I buy from Bullion Direct and have had great service from them. They are delayed but I still got 1400 eagles delivered in about 2.5 weeks... taking delivery today.

    I am trying to use craigslist.com to sell my silver locally. There are no fees. I have used craigslist many times to sell all kinds of merchandise but I have had no action on a post I put on over 2 weeks ago. I don't think many people with silver use it to connect with buyers/sellers.

    If you could put the word out about craigslist.com maybe it would be the freemarket we are all looking for. --Matt Bopp
    ==========

    Jason,

    No, there is not much silver for sale on craigslist. I have not sold any silver through them, only general items. BUT...I believe it would be a great forum because the whole idea is to bring buyers/sellers together (face to face) . I like this idea because it deletes the need for fraud protection. It's meant to be a localized market.

    I prefer this greatly over ebay because there are no fees for using craigslist and I know I am going to meet with a live person for delivery and payment of whatever a selling. In the case of silver I would probably meet in a public place (not my house). Also, this keeps all transactions "off the radar" and most people pay cash for items that are $500 or less.

    I hope you also see the stregnths of this format and promote the idea. OR, I would love to collaborate on creating an online forum to address the needs of the silver community.

    Matt Bopp

    ==========

    I went to a shop in Cedar Rapids that I'd never been to. Pick up a half a dozen Silver Eagle tubes and a few Silver Eagles. They had a small supply of Silver Eagles and rounds and bags of circulated/worn Morgan Dollars. I'm going back tomorrow to check out the Morgans. I was the only one in the shop at the time and I've no idea what his volumn is business wise. The owner is a locale Numismatist with the locale coin club. He did mention that Silver Eagles we're becoming hard for him to get.
    Regards,
    silvermax

    ==========

    Jason

    Didn't make it yesterday, but went to my local coin shop in Corvallis, Oregon today. I bought 3 100 oz bars (2 JM's and 1 Englehard) and that cleaned them out. They held them for me for 4 hours after a phone conversation(I have previously purchased from the same store and they remember me), they had 6 calls wanting to purchase the same bars by the time I picked them up. I paid $2.30 over spot. Store said that supply is difficult and that they sell out routinely. They also said I got lucky with my purchase today.

    Best Regards,

    Chris

    ==========


    I visited a local coin dealer yesterday... Coin Mint White Plains NY 914) 428-6682 - He says business has been brisk both buying and selling.

    he said it was hard finding silver... yet I realize now there seemed to be a lot of silver products in his display case - one oz Silver bars, nice one oz silver rounds, lots of Morgan dollars and various other silver coins.

    I had no intention of buys that day so I forgot ask price..

    ==========

    Maybe it's because I'm a small buyer. A very small buyer. I only buy like a few hundred dollars worth of silver at a time but I've called about 10 places in my area. Out of the 10 about 6 or 7 has silver in some form. A couple of the places say they have hundreds of silver eagles. The others say they have only 1 to 2 rolls and the other only has 9.6 oz bars. Now at first i started getting shocked that these places were saying that they had silver. Not realizing the small amount i was looking for or that they were telling me they had, excluding the 2 places that told me they had hundreds of silver eagles. One of them got smart when I asked how many silver eagles he had in stock and said in a smug manner "more than you can afford." without even knowing how much i was looking to buy. Anyway, maybe I'm just a small buyer because at first i started to question if there was a shortage just by the fact that so many of the places were saying they had silver. I was expecting to hear that there was no silver in any form available in all the stores. I'm a small buyer. One of the places has 20 silver eagles for $16.50/oz. I plan to head over there right now and buy them but the news of not hearing all the places saying they were void of silver of any kind shocked me and had me pause to ask about the shortage. But maybe it's because I'm a small buyer only expecting to by a few hundred dollars worth of silver at a time, that i did not notice the shortage.

    ==========

    Dear Jason,

    Following your suggestion to visit local coin shops on the 2nd of this month, I thought you might like to hear about my own experience.

    I live in one of the larger cities in the U.K. I decided to source my local coin shops and find out what they had in stock. Normally I would go straight to an internet source for coins (in fact, London is the only real option for any quantity) but it seemed only fair to check out the local places and pay them a visit.

    I was surprised to find that my city supported only 2 coin shops with any hope of holding bullion in stock. The rest were basically jewellers or pawnbrokers/valuables-for-cash exchanges which were not worth the time.

    The first shop was really tiny. Enough room to swing a cat - a very small one. Most of the stock was curiosity pieces in velvety boxes. I found a small section dedicated to familiar gold and silver coins. I got the idea very quickly. The complete 'bullion' inventory consisted of:

    - 1x 1oz gold Britannia @ £500 GBP (10% premium)
    - 1x 1oz gold Maple @ £550 GBP (22% premium)
    - 1x 1oz silver Eagle @ £22 GBP (!!!)
    - a 3-coin set of Royal Mint proof pound coins, at some silly price
    - a few 1/4oz gold sovereigns, most of them of numismatic value
    - a large silver Crown which was again a numismatic coin
    - a few miscellaneous small gold coins such as Francs, Roubles, etc.

    I asked if they stocked (or sourced) bullion coins which were not on display. I was told 'oh no, we are too small for that'. I commented that there appear to be no other retail sources of bullion coins in the city, perhaps even a lot farther. I suggested that given the recent bullmarket in precious metals and gold/silver coins, that he may have be missing out on an opportunity. But his interest seemed to be firmly in rare coins, and not shifting gold or silver - which I suppose is fair enough for an enthusiast with a shop. But its quite alarming to think that one customer could empty this shop in 5 minutes, and that would be pretty much it concerning 'real shops' with gold coins.

    Oh, and I was the only customer, possibly even that day.

    There is a second shop in the city, which is not a coin shop at all, but they do list a few bullion coins on their website in very small quantities. I think they would be cleaned out 5 minutes later.

    When I got home I made a call to a coin 'dealer' in the city which operates without a shop and I found via google. I asked about bullion coins and was quickly referred to their HQ in London, so I said thanks an goodbye.

    It seems this country has completely dropped the ball in terms of gold & silver?? I didn't realise it was this bad.

    Sincerely,

    Doug Little

    ==========

    Appreciate your knowledge and wisdom that you share with us. Just wanted you to know that I did contact my local coin shop on Tuesday, and they didn't have any silver rounds (what I usually buy), and of course wanted me to place an order to be recieved later.

    Just eight months or so ago they always had some rounds on hand.

    John in Portland

    ==========

    Jason,

    I also went to a coin shop at 2 on Tuesday in central New Jersey. I was only customer. Lots of demand for gold, less for silver. Little of each to sell without significant premiums. I also called 2 local wholesalers. They confirmed silver bars in 10 to 100 oz weights are hard to find and they have dealer waiting lists. Dealers are not selling at low prices. One dealer who is buying but not selling told me, "the world is too messed up for silver to stay cheap for long". It really does appear that paper silver price is low; silver bar prices are higher if you can find sellers. It seems to me that dealers can only hold back for a limited time as they need cash flow to pay rent and taxes, etc.

    Also, I think alternative energy development (wind, solar, battery, etc will be silver-requiring) as silver is such a great electrical conductor. I was unable to find out how much silver goes into a new Bosch calcium-silver alloy car battery.

    Do you think silver industrial users want investors competing with them? I don't think so and the silver investors are being cut off from supply from major fabricators, refiners, and industrial operations. The market will adjust and Ebay will reflect the free market.

    ==========

    BNS.. IS EMPTY..

    Was invited for a private tour of the BNS vault
    Hi Bill,
    Waited for 2 months for a tour of the Bank of Nova Scotia vault. Just came back and I was amazed at what I saw.
    Given the amount of paper certificates out there I expected to see rooms filled with silver.
    Silver:
    They only have 60x 1000 oz bars as their working supply.
    They have zero 100 oz.
    They have zero 10 oz.
    They have zero silver maples, silver eagles, zero 1 oz rounds.
    They have 1x 5 Oz silver bar. They have 10 million Oz in custody for Sprott and Butterfield.
    I asked where is the silver that is backing the scotiabank certificates? The vault manager said New York I guess.
    I asked have you ever had inventory this low. They said, been here since 1985, never seen anything like this, we used to have shelves full of small oz silver.
    He said waiting for 3 months for 100 oz, 5 oz and 1 oz but cant get any supply.
    They have allocated silver and gold as well in large safety deposit shelves but wasn’t able to count that.
    Used to be under impression that gold and silver certificates are allocated because they have an exact quantity of metal to the decimal point. Now I know otherwise the metal is NOT there, though they claim it is in NY.
    Gold
    They have 210x 400 Oz bars
    They have 2800x 400 Oz bars in custody for I shares
    They seem to have ~4000 maples, ~500 eagles coins, 10x1 kg bars, 10x 1 kg gold in small nugget form for jewellers. I asked where is the gold that is backing the certificates. The vault manager said, the BNS vault in NYC is 5x larger than this one so it is likely housed there.

    All the best
    Lenny Organ - President - Elite Cardiology Group Inc

    ==========

    Lenny,
    I guess the Bank of Nova Scotia means their precious metals are in Deep Storage, just like The US gold.
    MIDAS

    ==========

    just called barry stuppler, stuppler and co. 1-888-454-0444, he also has no silver and won't even bother getting any bullion in his store. stuppler is very well known and very very honest dealer. i think is main business is old coins but he as sold silver rounds to me in the past. none available. gene.

    ==========

    Hi again Jason,

    Copied below is the original note I sent to you after the visiting my local coin shop on 9/2. Today I decided to check it out again and found out some more interesting information.

    First, I again bought out his entire stock of Englehard 1 oz. rounds. This time I was only able to get 8!

    Second, he told me that since 9/2 he has seen a significant increase in the number of people calling to inquire about the availability of silver or even gold. Just as before, he had none to offer or any idea of when he might get more. He and I talked it over a bit and the best we can figure is that the manipulators are trying to drive the paper price down in the hope that people will panic and start dumping so they can fulfill their obligations on the cheap but I know I’m not planning on doing that and apparently none of the other "regulars” are doing it either. We both agreed that there is something fundamentally wrong with the market and are guessing that the dam will soon break as more and more people try to find silver.

    We live in very interesting times.

    John Phillips

    ==========

    Hello Jason,

    Well, I thought you might like to receive a report of my observations regarding the September 2 and 2 PM movement here in Connecticut.

    Being very interested in the subject, I arrived at Laurel City Coins in Winsted, CT, promptly at 2 PM this afternoon. I have been buying bullion there for years. The only person in sight other than myself was the proprietor, Dick Munzner. He reported that the further drop in silver prices appears to have completely dried up the interest of buyers. However, he also reported that he had virtually nothing to sell and nobody seemed to be accepting orders. I pretty much bought out his entire stock of Englehard 1 oz. rounds and I had no problem holding them in one hand. Outside of those, he offered me some weird 12-ounce replicas of the Walking Liberty coin from an unknown mint. I passed on them due to the odd size and shape which would make them difficult to handle or store. My impression was that he only had a few of those as well.

    So, my guts tell me that you and Ted Butler have it right about the market manipulation going on but there is the question of when, if ever, things might change since the apparent manipulators have far more resources than any of us little people and they may be able to maintain this economic anomaly for quite a while. Sure makes me wonder if I should have bailed out a while ago but then my better sense tells me that this can’t last forever and may end with an explosive move but it isn’t a comfortable feeling to watch things sinking. :-)

    Thanks for your information and best wishes for your long-term investment plans.

    Sincerely,

    John Phillips -

    ==========

    Jason,
    I have no dealers close by, so I called Liberty Coin Service in Frandor MI. @ 2 on Tuesday. The same story you have, shelves basically empty, but the still can get physical For delivery. They could get bars, and coins-- premiums for junk U.S. silver Were up significantly 6.2% premium vs. almost zero a few months back. Silver Eagles @ over 27% premium--- They said the people coming into the store to sell silver is about all dried up. I enjoy reading your e-mails, and am truly amazed of the power of the people in control To force down these prices so much at will. Goldman Sacks was telling their investors to get out Of gold @ 1000, and buy it back later -- these insiders keep getting richer on market manipulations.
    Alex

    ==========

    Hello Jason
    Went shopping in Fargo today. 2 shops. 1 had 3 1oz rounds of ag and a 1/10th of au. They don't now. The other has no rounds or bars. They do still have some dated 1 oz. bars and 12 oz. rounds and a very little misc. (I run out of $.)
    john

    ==========

    My name is Rodnee Ree and I am an ex-pat living in Belgium. I want to convey a simple story about silver which no one seems interested in hearing.
    My family has maintained an account in Switzerland for 20 years and yes we report the account. Given what is happening in this worldwide economy I decided it was time I owned some physical silver. In June I went to Zurich and bought 5 bricks (30kilo bars). I have not in my life had the feeling of security as I did when I took delivery of this silver and stored it into my safe deposit box. They were hypnotic and holy heavy. They weight about 62lbs each. Not in absolute terms, but a bit underestimated until one picks one up.
    While locking the box, I decided to take a second look and noticed they were slightly oxidized. For those of you who don't know, silver tarnishes into a light yellow orange eventually turning to black.
    I then locked the box, went back to the hotel and googled silver cleaning.
    Fast forward to the next day and I was the first in line at the bank to get my silver out of the safe. Making two trips, one with two bricks and the second with three, I wheeled my silver down the bahnhofstrasse in a ragged old suitcase past the unsuspecting public to the hotel to clean my silver. It was a total blast. Just a roll of aluminum foil to line the bathtub, hot water, baking soda and two hours later, my silver was sparkling and downright sexy. My wife never looked this good. As a junior Mugambo Ranger (JMR) I did feel the need to rub this silver all over my bod but reason won out and I returned it to my safety deposit box. I figured I could do without the concussions.
    To all those who are worried about the price of gold and silver, stop it. It is nonsense. You should have a percentage of you net worth in hard precious metals. Because, eventually all paper money into nothingness descends. It grows old and dies and meets its end. How many confederate dollars, weimer notes and Zimbabwe bills do you want to be holding when the music stops -- Get yourself some silver and gold and go party like a rockstar -- end of story.

    ==========

    Are these silver shortages true, you may ask? How is truth established? By two or three witnesses. CPM group is one, they show stats on investor demand, showing us the market is tiny. I'm another. The coin shops are another. These were just 25 more. And you ought to go and see for yourself.

    Many people have told me they take the time read me for about a year before they act. I suppose it takes that long to destroy all the illusions and lies fed into our minds over the years. This is not the time to wait for another year. Act today!

    Sincerely, Jason Hommel
    Last edited by Contemptuous; September 06, 2008, 02:55 PM.

  • #2
    Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

    Fast forward to the next day and I was the first in line at the bank to get my silver out of the safe. Making two trips, one with two bricks and the second with three, I wheeled my silver down the bahnhofstrasse in a ragged old suitcase past the unsuspecting public to the hotel to clean my silver. It was a total blast. Just a roll of aluminum foil to line the bathtub, hot water, baking soda and two hours later, my silver was sparkling and downright sexy. My wife never looked this good. As a junior Mugambo Ranger (JMR) I did feel the need to rub this silver all over my bod but reason won out and I returned it to my safety deposit box. I figured I could do without the concussions.
    LOL! This is a true precious metal investor (half ranger/half leprechaun)

    I know very little about PM's and I stay completely out of it. IMHO the PM market is too crooked by big actors (central banks and big hedge funds) playing dirty and the small investor (anything below $10 mil) invariably gets wiped (or whipped ) when there is a lot of action on the market.

    As an outsider I smell a rat. It's very easy to corner the physical metal market and it's even easier to corner the smaller market of consumer supply rounds and bars of gold and silver.

    A few tens of millions is enough to start a panic and every silver-body-rubber rushes to buy coins and bars like there is no tomorrow (for a session of rubbing, of course ).

    Therefore in the light of this new information provided by Lukester, I dare to formulate the first rule for a successful PM investor:
    1. Before making any investment in precious metals, make first a fundamental investment in a really sexy wife. It helps a lot in keeping a cool head.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

      There is but one coin shop in all of Mendocino County, California.

      I talked to the dealer today and he remarked that in forty years of bullion trading he's never seen any events even close to this, during which no one can get silver.

      However, I check Ebay and silver is moving just as much as it usually does. Prices aren't out of whack for EBay either.

      WTF?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

        do you mean ebay prices have dropped to spot?

        last time I checked a couple of sales were way above spot, but ebay's prices have stayed high as COMEX fell


        Originally posted by babbittd View Post
        There is but one coin shop in all of Mendocino County, California.

        I talked to the dealer today and he remarked that in forty years of bullion trading he's never seen any events even close to this, during which no one can get silver.

        However, I check Ebay and silver is moving just as much as it usually does. Prices aren't out of whack for EBay either.

        WTF?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

          Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
          do you mean ebay prices have dropped to spot?

          last time I checked a couple of sales were way above spot, but ebay's prices have stayed high as COMEX fell
          Yeah you're right.

          I'm looking at it again today and thinking back to 2001, the spreads are much higher.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

            Thought yall would like to know, I bought 500 oz. of Eagles from Tulving two weeks ago and they shipped yesterday. At least that's what they told me tonight on the phone. Check is in the mail as they say, I sure hope they are right.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

              COMEX Deliveries

              As of today, 4,419 delivery notices have been issued for September COMEX silver, representing 22 million ounces of silver. This is quite a high level for September and comparable to the typically much more active December, May and July contracts. While 22 million ounces may be a fraction of the almost 139 million ounces sitting in COMEX warehouses, it does indicate there is healthy underlying demand for silver despite the flagging price. Combined with the holdings of the silver ETFs like Barclays’ SLV and retail purchases, there is simply no indication at this point that the more than $10 decline in the price of silver had anything to do with anything on the demand side.

              We could make a similar case for the decline having had nothing to do with anything on the supply side either. What then? As just about everybody is now saying, the culprit was the curse of “paper” silver. I do, however, think that we should make a distinction between true “paper” silver, which includes certain unallocated pool accounts and OTC derivative contracts, and physically-backed silver that is titled in paper form such as most allocated bullion accounts, silver ETFs, Central Fund of Canada, etc. Also, while COMEX might be seen as the ultimate crime scene I would suggest that it is in fact the OTC where the murder took place. More on this later.

              CFTC Report on Swap Dealers and Index Traders

              The most important change in the commodity markets in 20 years may be in store based on the CFTC’s just released investigative report. As many of us now know, the 2 or 3 U.S. Banks that held those large COMEX silver and gold short positions per the CFTC Bank Participant Report were “swap dealers”. Among the recommendations based on the CFTC’s investigation is that the Commitment of Traders report should break out swap dealer activity and perhaps even change the classification from commercial and non-commercial (which is based on categorization of the trader) to speculative and hedging (which is based on categorization of the trade). Besides this, the report had some surprising conclusions, including that:

              “As crude oil prices were increasing during the period December 31, 2007 to June 30, 2008, the activity of commodity index traders in crude oil during this period reflected a net decline of futures equivalent contracts.”

              In effect, the CFTC is saying that the $50 plus rise in crude oil prices during 2008 was not the result of speculative excess, at least not on the NYMEX. At the same time, the CFTC hints that perhaps the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market deserves a closer look, including “to encourage the clearing of OTC transactions”. Then again, perhaps this revelation about the crude oil market isn’t that surprising considering open interest in NYMEX crude was flat to down during the first half of 2008 when speculators were supposedly throwing money at oil like it was, well, gold.

              In any case, I am really looking forward to Ted Butler’s reaction to these CFTC recommendations as most of them, if implemented, would create vastly improved transparency in COMEX silver and gold, perhaps to the point where it might not even be possible to conduct the type of market manipulation that he alleges is regularly taking place. If there are “naked” shorters in COMEX gold and silver who were hiding behind the skirts of regulators, they might soon find that the regulators have grown balls and will therefore now wear pants.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                Lukester, should I understand that you believe now in my hairbrained theory of the oil bubble, ... that one with index investing (commodity hedged investments aka ETN-like paper) through parallel, private and unregulated markets and toying with the oil price, while a dumb CFTC is asleep in the guard tower???

                Maybe all this physical precious metal shortage is nothing else than a result of a widepreading fashion among gold/silver bugs...

                I'm talkign, about what I've found earlier,... you know ... about that alternative practice of taking PM bars from the bank vault, giving them a sensual bath and after they are clean, refreshed and shining with desire, feeling the "the need to rub this silver all over" [...]

                I just don't want to know why some people prefer PM coins and not bars ....

                Joking aside, it may be simply the fact that many PM investors have recently began to distrust the PM markets and ETF certificates, and, being scared, they want to have the real thing on hand (or somewhere else ... such as a ... a personal safe deposit box)

                Since the PM retail market is so small compared to the total amount of money put by small/independent investors into PM paper, it's not hard to see why there is a shortage of physical PM.

                I believe that in the case of oil, the unnatural chain of physical-paper-virtual oil resulted from the index investment folly has broken at the paper-virtual link.

                Maybe in the case of PM's it is breaking now at the physical-paper link. If that is the case probably I don't have to tell you what would be the value of PM paper certificates when the brown matter hits the fan....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                  Originally posted by $#* View Post
                  Since the PM retail market is so small compared to ... in the case of oil ....
                  $#* - I know this is going to sound like a cop-out, but I do believe the precious metals, out of the commodities complex is a fertile area for speculation / manipulation. Speculation's ability to determine prices seems much less available in oil. Take a look at a bar chart showing the difference in size between the spot oil market, and the spot markets for gold and silver. The relationship in the size of the gold market and the oil market might be like a four story building (oil) compared to a Honda Civic (gold). The relationship between the oil market and the silver market would be like the building and a pack of cigarettes. The silver market compared to the petroleum market is micro-gnat-sized. There's your answer.

                  The smaller the market, the more secure the manipulation potential. It would seem much more likely that a single JP Morgan can play around with the silver market than ten of them could ever "play around" with the spot petroleum price. That would to me seem improbable. The petroleum market is so much bigger (and more strategically urgent) than either the gold or silver markets that the notion that one could knock 50% of it's value out on a manipulation seems to me much less probable. Meantime, the current very large drop in the petroleum price is putting a wind at the back of the manipulations in the PM's, making those manipulations almost ridiculously easy - but what is driving the oil plunge is a much more fundamental set of factors that what is driving the metals down. The oil is leading.

                  In fact, I would bet the sharply falling oil price is a huge part of what is driving the metals down and the sharp break in the petroleum price is probably 80% a factor of a classic price break subsequent to a parabolic spike. It is 100% the nature of commodity bull markets.

                  Bottom line: If the petroleum price were "not cooperating" here, with the CB and FED manipulation of the entire commodities sector, Hank and Ben's manipulation would have failed dismally. The fundamentals of the petroleum market are at least 50% of what is LEADING the whole parade of actors through this massive correction. I think every other damn thing is tethered, with a ring through the nose, Central Bankers included, to where the oil price wants to go. Take away oil's readiness to correct hugely in 2008, and Hank and Ben would have not accomplished squat despite attempting every trick in the book. We are in a new century where the global bid on hydrocarbons has the force to rule everything, so the speculation on oil in the financial markets is a large but still relatively minor player in this game, right alongside the Central banks, Wall Street, Main Street and in fact all of current history.

                  When oil wakes up again and decides to take another leg towards it's $450 a barrel target for the mid 2020's, gold and silver will burn through the presumably further attempted manipulations like a hot knife through butter. But not before oil decides to move again.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                    Here is what Kitco displays on its website (underline mine):

                    Kitco is working diligently to fulfill all existing client orders. We apologize for any delays in order fulfillment which are a result of production and delivery delays imposed by certain mints and by our suppliers.

                    The following products have been temporarily removed from our Precious Metal Store until further notice due to production and delivery delays that retailers are currently facing; 1 oz Gold bars, 1 oz Kitco Gold bars, 10 oz Gold bars, 1 oz Silver Eagles, 1 oz Silver Maples, 1 oz Silver Philharmonic coins, 100 oz Silver bars and 1 oz Palladium Maples.

                    These products will be relisted and available for order as soon as fresh inventory is readily available. In the interim, we will focus on completing pending orders as our top priority.

                    Please note that all remaining products listed in our Precious Metal Store are available for immediate delivery including a very healthy inventory of 1000 oz Silver bars.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                      Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                      $#* - I know this is going to sound like a cop-out, but I do believe the precious metals, out of the commodities complex is a fertile area for speculation / manipulation. Speculation's ability to determine prices seems much less available in oil. Take a look at a bar chart showing the difference in size between the spot oil market, and the spot markets for gold and silver. The relationship in the size of the gold market and the oil market might be like a four story building (oil) compared to a Honda Civic (gold). The relationship between the oil market and the silver market would be like the building and a pack of cigarettes. The silver market compared to the petroleum market is micro-gnat-sized. There's your answer.
                      What you say is absolutely correct, but only up to 2007. After the collapse of the mortgage bubble the swaps loophole things changed. The cherry in the cake was the bailout campaign in summer 2007, when treasuries released by the Fed poured into commodities and changed the whole picture.

                      Sorry to go off topic on your thread focused on the shortage of physical PM.

                      Please note that all remaining products listed in our Precious Metal Store are available for immediate delivery including a very healthy inventory of 1000 oz Silver bars.
                      Is this BS or there is just a shortage of small retail products ?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                        Originally posted by $#* View Post
                        Sorry to go off topic on your thread focused on the shortage of physical PM. Is this BS or there is just a shortage of small retail products ?
                        $#* - I don't know about others on this website who may regard their posts with a proprietory notion. I have made posts here for going on two years and it seems every last one was "hijacked" by people animatedly introducing other stuff that was on their minds. I say that's great! I find the idea of owning a thread absurd, and anyway by temperament I am all for the freewheeling style of posting where people can be uninhibited. On "my" threads at any rate, anything goes! Rant, argue, reason devastatingly or make an utter ass out of yourself with specious arguments. The good arguments are sitting there in broad daylight for any intelligent reader who can fog a mirror to easily pick out, no? People are invited to post whatever the f**ck they want on "my" threads. I like the "no boundaries" rule. I get really claustrophobic around stuffy, starchy, tight-arsed demeanors, and any variety of pomposity has me jumping out of my skin.

                        And about the "shortage of retail PM's"? I have not really got a clue. But it's plain to see that people are not easily buying the stuff and that stuation seems to have persisted for six months? Give it another six months. If we still see that going on, the stories about "production bottlenecks" will be on their way to being disqualified, no? Easy way to discover that truth is merely to wait just a little while longer.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                          Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                          or make an utter ass out of yourself with specious arguments.
                          Give me some time Luke will ya? I am workin on it...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                            Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                            Give me some time Luke will ya? I am workin on it...
                            Have at it.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: MORE SILVER SHORTAGES (just about everybody is sold out) - J. Hommel

                              Have we had enough of silver shortage sightings? Well maybe. But just for the heck of it, I'll post some more. And to think all of this is unfolding in the midst of a deflation! :eek:

                              Mr. Hommel's pithy question:

                              Food for thought: If silver was abundant, and if all the refineries took orders at $15-$20/oz. for silver several months ago, then why can't they all buy silver now at $10, and instantly catch up on all orders?

                              Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                              We've read and understood all the sophisticated arguments as to why "rank and overt manipulation" in the precious metals has taken second place to massive hedge fund liquidations. I can accept that. The recent violent correction in the PM's is then more likely a direct result of a large group of hedge fund speculative position unwinding. But what the heck does any of this info below have to do with "deleveraging hedge funds"?
                              ============

                              9/15/2008 2:31 AM

                              Hello Jason

                              Over the past few weeks I have been reading your articles on the shortage of silver. I really did not expect a shortage to show up in India - but was in for a surprise over the weekend.

                              In the past I have purchased silver bullion from a well-reputed jeweller in my city - PNG. Never faced any problems earlier. When I visited them on 13-Sep - I was told that there was a shortage and I would have to place an order. I was asked to pay in full upfront and order would be fulfilled in 8-10 days. I asked them why there was a shortage.

                              They said that lot of the silver they sell is recycled scrap. And for some reason the refiner (based in Bombay) was not able to ensure supply to meet demand. I couldnt probe deeper as the shop was packed with customers - all of them buying silver items given the low price and the fact that we are in a period of some auspicious Hindu festivals. The rate quoted for silver was Rs 19,400 per Kg.

                              Jason notes: 46.5750 Rs per $1. 19400 / 46.57 = $416.53/kilo. 1 kilogram = 32.1507466 troy ounce. $416.53/. = $12.96/oz. On 9/15/2008 2:31 AM

                              ============

                              Dear Jason,

                              I started buying silver bullion and coins about three years ago (when, ironically, it was also in the $10.00 range), and today experienced for the first time since then what so many of your other subscribers have recently reported. I went to a coins and collectibles dealer in my area for my weekly silver buy, and was promptly informed that they were completely out of .999 bars and rounds.

                              They did have plenty of 2008 Silver Eagles--not surprising, since they're asking $20.00 each for them, nearly double the current spot price. Only one other customer came in while I was there and (like me) bought some 90% coins instead, their prices for which were about the same as another local competitor of theirs where I normally buy, and who, on my last visit also seemed to not have the usual large selection of pure silver bullion products (and that was BEFORE the recent correction).

                              So it would indeed appear that at the moment retailers aren't selling to us because private holders aren't selling to them, and probably won't be, especially while the price is on the floor.

                              My compliments to you on your insightful, well-researched, faith-based guidance.

                              L. Clements
                              Chicago

                              ============

                              Jason,

                              Just thought I'd fill you in on the shortages in my area. I live in Northern San Diego County.

                              I couldn't make it to the local coin shop on TWOs-Day, so I ended up going on Wed. They were out of generic silver bullion. One of the employees said they hadn't been able to get any silver from their "wholesaler," which I imagine meant the general public is not selling, as most of their generic bullion has looked like it's had a rough life.

                              One man came in and had apparently called ahead and had some silver eagles reserved for him. He bought 25 of them for $400. That equals $16/Eagle. Silver was right around $14/ounce. So on 9/3 the premium on eagles at this coin shop was $2 over spot.

                              Today, 9/13, I stoped back in to see if they had gotten any more silver bullion in. I was told "no, things are really tight now. But, I do have some Silver Eagles for $18 each." The employee then commented something to the effect that they are "at a premium, but that's how it is now." Today, silver is under $11/ounce. The premium is now over $7 over spot.

                              Just thought you might be interested,
                              Aaron

                              ============

                              Went Hunting for Silver at my Local Coin shop. ."Accent On Coins", in So Everett, Wa.. they had ZERO Silver.. The store owner said the only silver he is seeing is silver someone is brings in to sell, and that lasts for 2 minutes as the next person to enter the store buys it..

                              The Owner said he is Trying to Buy Silver and is in contact with ALL of his "Suppliers"

                              He Wnt On To Say "No One Has Any Silver To Sell"..........

                              Mean While Silver Sits At 10.84$.. Something Is Going On.. You Know It - We All Know It... Keep Writing your Reports.

                              ============

                              Refiner out of $1000 oz bars begging for bars to keep doors opened.

                              ============

                              no silver to be found in any coin shop in sioux city ia. jim peck

                              ============
                              Jason,

                              You're absolutely right about the silver shortage. My 2 local coin shops I normally buy from are on empty, and see no prospect of getting some anytime soon. They haven't put in any orders for at least 2 weeks. One said that she stopped putting in orders because all her suppliers can't say when they'd be able to deliver.

                              So she hasn't put in any more orders for weeks. The other one said that he hasn't been able to get any for 2 weeks. It appears that Ted Butler's predictions are finally coming true. This is the final phase--the physical shortage which will lead to the short squeeze in the paper markets.

                              Thanks!
                              Dave
                              ============

                              Dear Jason,

                              I just confirmed from my local dealer (LaGrande Gold and Silver) that he is out of silver and is frantically trying to find some.

                              I'm always pleased to read your reports for their content, but also because you are still around to make them. It takes faith to oppose the powers that can bring down international prices. What might they do to any individual who is exposing them with God's truth?

                              I don't want to support the fraud by selling my silver into the current fraudulent market. Is there a place to sell that would capture at least some of the true value of the commodity? I would appreciate your reflection on this dilemma as I suspect would many small-scale silver investors facing real financial obligations.

                              Yours in Christ,
                              Bob P.

                              Jason answers: ebay is the best for now. they take up to 15%, depending on order size. Or others say as little as 5% for 1000 oz. bars. (I don't use ebay, I'm just reporting.)

                              ============

                              Hi Jason... hope your having a great day today!! :-)

                              Just wanted you to know I( went to my local coin dealer to see if he got any junk silver coins in... & to ask him what silver he did have. Since I buy alot of coins from him over the years... he did sell me $125.00 face...

                              I ask him what he had left & he said NOT much as he sold it to his resource (smelters)... He told me he has not sold any silver at all for the last month... he says he has about another $200 face but paid much more then what he could sell it for so he is going to hold on to it till silver rises. (I hear the same thing from others) BUT they all say they DO NOT have a lot available.

                              I like coins as it give a good hedge... if silver rises... I got the silver value... after it rises & falls back I have the coin value... as so much 90% silver is being melted once silver goes way up, then even the common coins will become more scarce... I also buy silver eagles when I can....

                              Many are looking for silver to buy but they (the dealers) can't find any & customers are not bringing in any silver to sell... so everything you been saying is TRUE... here again this proves there is shortages... I tried to get more silver from a few other of local dealers I know but again they don't have any or are sitting on it till silver prices go up past what they had to pay for it earlier...

                              Just thought I'd let you know...

                              ============

                              Hey Jason, Im a subscriber to your newsletter and always enjoy reading what you have to say. I just got my dad to start reading you too and he loves it. I live in the Salt Lake valley and thought I'd share whats happening in the local silver market with you.

                              I just called the two coin shops that I regularly buy silver from. The first one is located in downtown Salt Lake City and they are completely out of silver. No 40% or 90% bags, no rounds, no 10 oz. or 100 oz. bars....nothing. The other one is located in Ogden which is about 40 minutes north of Salt Lake.

                              They just got a shipment in today of 300 rounds and already sold 50 of them. They are selling them at 15.50 an oz. which is about 5 dollars over the current spot price of 10.65. The highest premium I ever paid them in the past was 1.50 over spot. Neither shop has ever had any shortages. Amazing.

                              I believe you are 100% correct that prices are artificially low, perhaps being kept there by big players in the financial and government sectors in order to prop up the dollar and prevent the paper silver market from huge defaults. In any event its quite interesting to watch it. Keep up the good work and God bless you.

                              Nate C

                              ============

                              I was actually shocked today for the first time. I have been buying silver from a coin shop in Lakeland Florida for the past year and a half. You could get basically anything a small timer could want.

                              You could buy monster boxes of silver eageles and a sale of 100 gold eagles was not unusual for 25 to 35 over spot The man has two shops, one in Lakeland and one in Clearwater and has been in business for 40 years.

                              He has no silver other than nusimatic coins. None. He wants 100 dollars over spot for gold eagles which he has plenty meaning several hundred. The other coin shop in Lakeland that I frequent usualy has some art bars and a few bags.

                              They mostly make their money on diamonds. He had 200 silver eagles and wanted 3 dollars over spot. There is now a shortage in Lakeland!

                              ============

                              Jason,

                              Just let you know that Canadian Scotia bank is no longer accepting order for 100 oz silver bars. You can order 1000 oz or coins only now. RBC is still selling 100 oz but waiting time will be 4 to 6 weeks.

                              They said the siver bar is sold out in several cities and they have to get from Bank of Canada. It seems very tight. However, I did not notice there is long lines though. Strange, did someone withdraw the available silver before engineered this sell off? Is this lawful?

                              What will happen if cartels make the silver not available to public. They can claim the price to be whatever it is if people can not buy. It is bad fro investors and manuafacturers too.

                              Lawrence

                              Jason Notes: Others have reported that Scotia Mocatta is completely out earlier today, and others said they just got some silver in today.

                              ============

                              NO SILVER IN CANADA: In Toronto for example at Scotia Bank you can,t buy any silver for few months now.Two months ago i bought 400 ounce because that silver was kept for another person and he did not came to take the silver.

                              I guess i was lucky,because the price is so low now my wife is angry with me,she think that we lost the money and the price will go much lower.I know that the z-----t criminals manipulate the market.I have no fear about the price going up soon.I invested about 80000$ in silver.For few weeks i call the Scotia Bank every day to check for silver,i want to buy some more,but there is no silver and i have a very god friend that work at the precious metals department.

                              He told me the same thing,there is no silver for so long and the price still went down.People are going crazy,they want to buy,but there is not even 1000 ounce bars.Today i call the bank again,i call them almost every day and told me that they don,t have any kind of silver,nothing,zero,everything is empty.They told me that they have gold but not silver,i ask,when do you expect any silver?The lady told me that this month i cant buy any,maybe in october if an investor is low on cash and needs money.

                              Here is the address and the the phone number if you dont believe me. Foreign Exchange&Precious Metals Scotia Plaza 44 King Street West, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1H1 TEL (416) 866-4900 If you dont believe me call them and see that is true.God bless you.

                              ============

                              Jason, I went to Greenville's only silver coin store in town. They are out of all pre 2008 silver eagles, but have a small supply of 2008 silver eagles. I bought a few rolls at $16/oz, which is about $5.00 over spot. He had 1 100 oz bar offered at 4.75 over.

                              2008 coins are allocated and he is waiting for more. He doesnt expect any older eagles until paper spot gets back to 17-20 range. He said it is very hard to find silver to buy now. Everyone is buying silver and no one is selling except at very high markups.

                              Craig

                              ============

                              Jason,

                              I enjoyed your article this morning. I called Apmex to buy some silver this afternoon. They are out of 90%, rounds, and all bars. They are going to call me when they get some in. Tulving has only 1000 oz bars. I also called CNI and they also had 1000 oz bars.

                              When CNI gave me their spead on 1000 oz bars, I told them that they were $0.25 higher than Tulving. (content deleted)

                              I also called 5 coin shops in Madison, WI today. All are out. All wanted to sell me some even though they didn't have any. I told them to call me when they got any in stock - we'll see.

                              Keep up the great work!

                              ============

                              I enjoy you emails on the silver. I tried to go to my coin shop (Lakewood Coins) in Lakewwod, Colorado today. The were 3 other people waiting for the store to open when I got there. The first Customer in wanted to buy silver and was told they had no bars of any weight, no rounds, no maple leafs, no silver eagles.

                              It would be 4 to 6 weeks before they would have any. The only thing they had was 1 Bag of silver for $11,000.00 and other odd silver coins. I was really shocked even though I read your emails. I bought a 1/10th oz. gold eagle for $100.00. Just though I would let you know how things are in Denver.

                              David

                              ============

                              Hi

                              I just wanted you to know that I went to the bank today at 3:30PM after seeing the price of silver drop to $10.75, after debating if I should wait for further price drops, I am glad I did. When I went into the bank to place an order for any kind of silver remaining, Nickolas the bank teller made a phone call to order my silver.

                              The person on the other end of the phone line said they only had 300 Canadian maple leaf coins at $15 even! They had no 1000 ounce bars, no 100 ounce bars, no bars what so ever!! I told Nickolas that there is a world wide shortage of silver and he said "Maybe I should buy some?". I joked "Sorry I just purchased the last few ounces."

                              The economic con game of paper currency created out of nothing and paper promises of silver, gold, stocks and bonds is coming to an end and as a newly awakened individual since February I am glad I purchased on the way down and did not wait for the contraction before the explosion. Why? Because silver and gold is money and I got it at a discount when there were some supply left.

                              Regards,

                              Davinci

                              ============

                              Hi,

                              Have been following your emails here in UK - and buying silver as and when it is available in my local coin shop.

                              Before the silver price dropped, I was paying £10 - £11 for 1oz Britannias.

                              Yesterday I was quoted £14 for older coins and £18 for new 2008 Britannias - equivalent to nearly $32 !!!

                              That's what you call a hefty premium! - and people are buying.

                              Keep up the good work,

                              Regards,
                              Roger

                              ============

                              HELLO AGAIN JASON

                              I went to our local coin shop yesterday and was able to buy 2 Swiss 1 oz. gold bars for $840 each and a bag of $100 face value old coins for $960. He had no silver eagles, maples or any rounds or any other gold in stock. During our chat he mentioned his great concern at being unable to buy any 2008 silver eagles for his long time Christmas customers, and that very few people are bringing coins into sell.

                              The availablity picture for gold and silver is indeed very bleak. Again I thank you for giving us a heads up on this story over the last 18 months.

                              Don

                              ============

                              “Just have a comment on the state of the silver market, at least in my local market,Victoria, British Columbia,” writes a reader.

                              “I went to cash in on the recent increase of the gold/silver ratio -- to trade my gold for silver and then reverse the trade when the ratio (hopefully) drops -- at the largest coin dealer in the area. To my surprise, they were sold out of silver -- SOLD OUT!

                              “The dealer said the recent drop in silver had people lining up out the door to buy silver. They said in 30 years of business, they have never sold out of stock. Just from a purely social commentary, I would say the ‘gold rush’ is far from over.

                              “Alas, I went home still holding my gold -- not altogether a bad thing in today's market conditions.”

                              Ed z

                              ============

                              Chris,

                              The NW Mint in Auburn, WA, told me today that it is a 4-6 MONTH wait for silver now. Another coin shop in Victoria also confirmed they are out and have "no idea" when they will get any. The last batch went it one day. He said, "I've been doing this for 30 years and have never seen anything like it". He sounded very frustrated to me. He does have some gold, which sounded more encouraging.

                              Who would have believed spot silver at 11-12 bucks when you can't find any? It is tragic yet somehow comical. Absurdity reigns!

                              Ted Butler and you guys are 100% correct. The proof is right in front of us
                              now. Rather obvious, wouldn't you say?

                              Regards,
                              Mitch

                              ============

                              Hello Jason,

                              Love reading your articles, great work!

                              Just wanted to let you know that I called Nortwest Territorial Mint today to order some silver; which they promise to deliver withing 10 weeks, but they would not take my order. They said they are too busy and the only thing they could do is take my number and call me back. Yeah. So, I gave them my number but it's one of those "don't call us, we'll call you" type of situations.

                              I was able to order some silver (Pan Am) from them before. Not today.

                              In any case, what in the world is happening to the spot price of silver???

                              Look forward to your articles.

                              God bless,

                              swa

                              ============

                              HELLO JASON,

                              In Belgium we don't know something like coin shops, after a long surch ,
                              I found a dealer in Ostend who's advertising on the internet and
                              he is asking 20 euro for one ounce silver Eagle excl. taxes VAT 6 percent. 1 Euro is 1.4160 dollar.

                              So one eagle cost you 30 dollar. delivery time 2 weeks , 210 in stock

                              that's 18.5 dollar over spot 6 percent VAT Included

                              I don't think he's sold a lot.

                              Dirk B.
                              BELGIUM

                              Jason Notes: Thank God we don't have it as bad as those in Europe.

                              ============

                              Hi Jason,

                              Just to let you know that the shortage of retail silver has now arrived over this side of the Pond--

                              just checked availability with one of our main bullion dealers/fabricators Baird & Co (see www.goldline.co.uk)--

                              even at the prices they charge (UK £176 for a 500g bar !!!!) they are now sold out and offering 3 week lead times--and these guys make their own bars !

                              As an aside, I have a fairly hefty investment in the ETF securities physical ETF--
                              given the difficulty (and crazy prices including VAT tax here in the UK) of owning physical metal oneself, would you recommend James Turks goldmoney.com physical storage programme as a safe alternative?

                              Many thanks
                              Martyn S

                              ============

                              J. Hommel comments:

                              Those are some of the silver shortage reports from September 9th to the 15th.

                              I have about another 40 emails that I saved that report silver shortages from September 3rd to the 9th, but that's all for now.

                              Oh, here's one.

                              My webmaster, Greg Kyle, who writes an excellent FAQ on silver at www.silveriswealth.com who handles my billing for the website, has been trying to convince a friend of ours from our college days to buy silver. Our friend always buys at the top. Finally, he's now saying he might buy some now. But he says, "I'll wait for it to go up a bit, and then I'll buy only 100 oz. bars!"

                              The guy is so willfully clueless, it's just amazing. There are no 100 oz. bars for sale in this market; all the wholesalers of the bars are sold out! Boy is he in for a shock! He acts as if his paper money is worth something, like the "customer is king" or some such nonsense, as if his paper money can instantly conjure up what he desires, whenever he desires it. Fat chance.

                              More likely, he'll find one of the online stores offering bars, place an order, wait 5 months, and maybe get nothing at all as the companies go bankrupt as the price heads back up.

                              Food for thought: If silver was abundant, and if all the refineries took orders at $15-$20/oz. for silver several months ago, then why can't they all buy silver now at $10, and instantly catch up on all orders? Oh, I suppose you know the reason for that?

                              Sincerely, Jason Hommel

                              ____________________

                              ----- Original Message -----

                              From: APMEX NEWS
                              To: Lukester
                              Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 2008 10:31 AM
                              Subject: APMEX is Buying!

                              Dear Valued APMEX Customer,

                              APMEX is actively looking to buy product from any and all resources to help satisfy the needs of the current market.

                              Right now, for a limited time, APMEX is buying to replenish our depleted silver inventories. As a valued customer, you can take advantage of our “Email Only” prices which are significantly higher than we are currently advertising.

                              This offer is only for current APMEX customers and only while our needs exist. These are the current items we are buying at increased prices…the only requirement we have is that you sell at least 100 ounces to us.


                              Listed Online
                              Buy Price
                              Your Special Buy Pricing
                              Ref# 808090AS


                              1 oz Silver American Eagles 2008
                              + $2.00
                              + $2.50 Over Spot


                              1 oz Silver American Eagles (Back Dates)
                              + $1.50
                              + $2.00 Over Spot


                              100 oz Silver Bars
                              + $0.50
                              + $0.80 Over Spot


                              10 oz Silver Bars
                              + $0.50
                              + $0.80 Over Spot


                              1 oz Silver Rounds
                              + $0.40
                              + $0.60 Over Spot




                              Sell your silver to APMEX today – don’t hesitate, this offer will only be available until APMEX secures a desired position.

                              Get Premium Buy Pricing when you sell a minimum of 100 ounces to APMEX. Call 800-375-9006 and select option #1 for the “Trading Department” to get started right away.

                              Respectfully,
                              David McCarty
                              Director of Marketing

                              American Precious Metals Exchange
                              Last edited by Contemptuous; September 16, 2008, 07:34 PM.

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