Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

[Mega]

Looks like that's the plan, any thoughts?
Mike

[Guest]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Miker -

It may have been 'all about the oil' for the US, but it is not for the Turks. The Turks private nightmare since the start of the Iraq war has been the growth of a Kurdish independence movement, which they fear could tear away a big chunk of their eastern provinces. In Turkey's case, to call this an incursion for control of Kurdish northern Iraqi oil is more than a little simplistic.

Making a grab for the capital of Kurdish northern Iraq to 'get the oil' is an absolutely sure-fire way to stir up a Kurdish hornet's nest, and don't think the Turks don't know it. They have 300+ years of extremely subtle and sophisticated experience keeping a death grip on the Ottoman empire, and probably have forgotten more about geo-politics in the Middle East than the British ever learned.

Respectfully,

Lukester

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Lukester, as you point out, the Turks are more worried about an ascendant Kurdish indepenence movement than they are eyeing fresh oil reserves.

The Kurds in northern Iraq have for the last 3 years been feverishly working on military and economic independence from Iraq. Political independence can't be far from their minds. Independence for Kurds in northern Iraq means an increasingly restless group of Kurds in southeastern Turkey and this is absolutely unaceptable to the Turks.

Throw in the inconveniently timed resoltion from the US Congress condemning Turkey for past genocidal activities 100 years ago and you have a US diplomatic corps becoming increasingly impotent while trying to prevent the Turks from flexing their military muscles.

I do disagree with the premise the war was about oil. Granted that part of the world is important because of their oil reserves but if we really just wanted the oil, we'd have all the US drillers there pumping like crazy under the protection of the US military.

[Guest]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

BiscayneSunrise -

You wrote

<< I do disagree with the premise the war was about oil. Granted that part of the world is important because of their oil reserves but if we really just wanted the oil, we'd have all the US drillers there pumping like crazy under the protection of the US military. >>

I actually agree with you on this too. The Iraq intervention was a great deal more complex than merely about oil, and Greenspan proferring this wisdom upon us via his recent book frankly leaves me completely unimpressed that he had a good hold of all the issues.

Turkey has been a stalwart US ally for decades, and is one of the most stable and responsible countries in the entire Middle East. Their allegiances to neighboring countries cut pragmatically across all cultural and ideological lines to find partner countries who believe in building economic links, maintaining secular and reasonably liberal government, and above all modernising and moving forward in peace. Their foreign policy in the past thirty to forty years has been sober-minded and exemplary (only exception Cyprus).

They are potentially critical in providing the entire middle eastern part of the Muslim world with a rational, free and excellent secular model to counter countries like Iran. The legacy of Kemal Ataturk is what drove the Turkish army to step in to topple only those of it's own administrations which have tried to tinker with Turkey's secular constitution, or tip Turkey in any way away from a determinedly secular path. These interventions have been all about an issue that's growing critical in the Middle East today, and Western nations are utterly naive in understanding the critical role Turkey's army have played in refusing to allow Turkey to drift away from the secular vision Kemal Ataturk placed before them.

The separation of church and state was paramount to Ataturk. The myopic and cynically motivated EU objections about Turkey's 'lack of democracy' have been primarily fig-leaves to drape over French recalcitrance at the idea of a non-Christian country entering the EU. If they had just a scrap of vision they would understand Turkey's accession to the EU would be a huge plus for the EU's ability to influence the course of events around their entire southern and eastern perimeters.

The Turkish army has always given power straight back to civilian government - they have acted only strictly within the mandate set down by Ataturk, which was that Turkey's constitution should never be subverted to allow a commingling of faith with secular government.

Meanwhile the silly Eurocrats in Brussels piously and myopically decry Turkey's "lack of democracy", due to the Turkish Army's interventions expressly to keep Turkey secular. These pious EU pronouncements and stonewalling on permitting Turkey's entry to the EU are all occurring while Europe itself is at deathly risk to be subsumed from the inside out, by an vigorously expanding and militantly antagonistic Islamic fundamentalism - which is precisely what Turkey has historically rejected, via Kemal Ataturk's visionary modern constitution for that country in the 1920's.

Here's a great example of the term 'Chauvinist' finding it's way right back to the country of it's birth (France).

To give every side it's just due however, you have to hand it to our present US administration - they really know how to screw things up thoroughly. They could not have damaged more long term US interests with this Iraq incursion if they had sat down and tried to figure out how to blow a saucer size hole in each of Uncle Sam's two (already rather large) feet with a 20 gauge shotgun.

Forget conservative or liberal - our "intelligent and audacious" present US administration, and particularly it's numbskull Congress, are off the charts for complete, unadulterated geo-political stupidity both in their original understanding of Turkey's serious internal vulnerabilities due to Kurdish politics at the Iraq border (US Government's blissful optimism in war planning), and now Congress's current ham-handed and pious pronouncements on that country in the midst of a growing crisis for Turkey and it's large and restive Kurdish population.

Maintaining excellent US ties with Turkey has been one of the lynchpins of US foreign policy for the entire Mediteranean and Middle East, going back 40 years. Between a club-footed policy in Iraq from the outset, and now pious bleating about Turkey's history by our numbskull US Congress, while our government is itself enmeshed in a current highly questionable war (this kind of Wilsonian conceit is uniquely American), the US is flushing good relations with this very loyal and sober minded ally of long standing, along with every other last scrap of anything good we had, straight down the toilet - and as if all that were not enough, they are vigorously bankrupting us in the process.

Please pardon my rant here. Our Congressmen surely are the dumbest bunch of incompetent twits to ever engage in foreign policy debate.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Lukester,

Remember the conversation a couple of thread ago about waves of history being inexorable and well intentioned leaders accelerating the very change they are trying to prevent? (March of Folly, etc)

As you probably know, some futurists are predicting the end of the nation state as the internet and knowledge economy advance. The complete disapearance of the nation state is probably a couple hundred years away, if ever, but some of the weaker nations out there will see themselves broken up. Discussion is now about the usefulness of Belgium.

In the case of Iraq, which was nothing more than a creation of British statesman a hundred years ago designed to counterbalance a geographically large Iran, found itself only able to stay unified under the grip of the tyrant Saddam. Similiar to Yugoslavia, once you take away the central strongman, the country degenerates along its natural ethnic and religous lines.

US mistakes in the Mid East by well intentioned government leaders are accelerating the changes which history makes inevitable. The Middle East may eventually become peace loving and democratic but the "stabilizing" process may very well be anything but.

In the case of the Kurds and Turks, just because history makes an independent Kurdistan inevitable doesn't mean the Turks have to like it or be passive about it.

[Guest]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Biscayne -

Seems our views are "cut from the same piece of cloth", as they say. ;)

[jacobdcoates]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

I agree with alot of your view the both of you. Turkey is not after oil per se. If it gets it great, if not so what. Turkey is and I think will remain fiercely nationalistic. No matter when or how it joins the EU. I do disagree that turkey is a western type democracy, Don't get me wrong I think it is a good thing that the Turkish military keeps the Civilian govt from swinging too far toward theocracy and forcibly returns it to secularism. But that is not the hallmark of a western-type democracy, they make it work for them and that is all that really matters.

From speaking with my grandfather who was attached to the Turkish army during the Korean War, the turks will clean the living daylights out of the Kurds. My grandfather still admires them and fears them today. They would have intervened long ago except for intervention by the US. Turkish intervention would create a horrible short term mess for the US in Iraq.

I don't think the genocide resolution is "ill time", that would be putting it circumspectly at best. While it is important to remember the past, one must ask why is it so important that the US House bring up the Armenian genocide at this particular time and point and in such a public way for our very staunch ally, for a congress that is suppose to care about what the world thinks of the US. Why start with pissing off one of the few remaining allies we have? Political leverage is my bet, Turkey intervenes-------> Iraq becomes a MAJOR MAJOR MESS(short term)-------> louder calls that the war is unwinnable and the US troops should be called home and enormous political pressure to do so. An election stunt for 08 essentially, although I will have to admit near perfect timing, just in time for events to unfold during primary season here in the US.

[Guest]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

JacobDCoates -

Your Grandpa is absolutely right - the Turkish army could kick the snot out a number of armies all over that part of the world. They have what you might call a "special attitude" when they get riled, which makes them a quite nasty piece of work to tangle with - I heard the same things your Grandpa told you.

I think that if Iran ever makes the mistake to lean on Turkey, as they go about their influence-peddling little rounds of the middle east, they might end up more than a little stupefied at having their heads summarily handed to them on a platter.

BTW - I admire your rakish looking new avatar Jacob - Very smooth looking cat.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Agreed on the ferocity of Turkish soldiers.

Interesting point about the Turks being the new counterweight in the Mid East.

Sometimes my innate pessimism gets the best of me and dreads the worst case. What is interesting is that it seems the military surge is working pretty well. All Iraqi news of late seems to be pretty good and relegated to the back pages of the paper.

Now if the diplomats, statesman and yeoman politicians in the Iraqi parliement can do their part, perhaps they can pull this thing off, especially if the Turks become the new big kid on the block.

Given the Turks military muscle flexing, I think the Kurds would much rather be a relatively independent part of a federalist Iraq, than a Turkish province.

[Spartacus]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

until those huge, huGE, HUge, HUGE
(did I say big?)

new military bases are cancelled, we can bet the US is not going to let that petroleum or NG go anywhere the US does not want it to go.

(did I mention how big those bases are?)

(I haven't been following the news much, so maybe the construction of those bases has been cancelled -someone please let me know.)

Looks like that's the plan, any thoughts?
Mike

Oh, wait ... on deep reflection, I changed my mind ... those bases are needed to root out Al Queda in Iraq ... You know, the ones that Saddam helped to blow up the WTC.

Yeah. That's the ticket.

[jacobdcoates]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Thanks for the compliment Lukester, but it is a monkey though:eek:

I would categorize them as conditioned fearlessness, the brutality of their commanders is quite legendary, but it is not pointless brutality, it is meant to remove expression of fear.

I agree BiscayneSunrise, that the Kurds would like to be an independent part of a federalist republic of Iraq. But for the Kurd to become independent for all intensive purposes, would make Turkey very upset, since there absolutely convince that if there is even an whiff of an independent Kurdish state then the ethnic Kurds that live in Turkey will want to join them and have independence from Ankara. It would be like knowing that given the chance, Texas would leave the US(some might not miss it, it is the principle of the matter though). You can be conquered, but you can never leave or we will conquer you again is the Turkish outlook. Which is why there is still the problem of Cyprus, the Turks simply believe that it is part of Turkey and will remain so forever. No if, ands, or buts about it. They will not risk having the eastern provinces slip in to open revolt and try and secede, The army's roll in turkey from what I have learned of it seems the Turkish equivalent of the US Supreme Court/FBI - Maintain some semblance of stability, and remove any threat to that social/political structure and Kurds definitely fall in to "not playing nice category" from the point of view from the Turkish army.

[Guest]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

Biscayne -

What do you think, is Jacobdcoates' new avatar a George Burns lookalike? He's definitely got the George Burns glasses (no cigar though)!

[c1ue]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

This is an interesting discussion and I do agree that Turkey has zero desire to see an independent Kurdish nation - to the point of annexation.

However, the question is what would be an acceptable alternative?

Would Turkey be willing to contribute soldiers to replace some of the US role in Iraq as the muscle for the Iraqi government? Unless this happens, I just can't see Turkey being able to exert enough counterweight to balance out the US political need to resolve the situation in Iraq quickly.

Even were this to happen, just the fact that a Kurdish province of Iraq is peaceful and prosperous pretty much automatically makes those Kurds in Turkey unhappy at their own oppressed lot.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

George Burns? Hmmm, I think you are exactly right, or at least his long lost simian cousin.

As for C1ue's question for a suitable alternative, I think that is where the State Department can earn their money (and potential peace prize)

Agreed that a prosperous Kurdish Northern Iraq enclave would make the Southern Turk Kurds restless.

Perhaps national governments should be more interested in giving up some of their sovereignty for making the people more sovereign (radical and naive proposition, I know)

Perhaps a cross border Kurdish, free trade zone. The Iraqi Kurds are perfectly capable of providing domestic security for themselves but perhaps they would accept some Turkish military presence to protect against any
transgressions from Southern Iraqis or Iranians.

Assuming the parties truly want peace and prosperity and the American presence significantly reduced. A Turkish, Kurdish, Iraqi, Saudi negotiated solution moderated by the US sounds like it could have real potential.

[c1ue]

Re: Turkey to rob America of her (Iraq) oil?

A multilateral solution would be nice, but were I to HAVE to bet, I'd bet on Turkey trying to take in Kurdish Iraq as a 'protectorate' before I see anything else happening.

As I noted before, there is no way Turkey's Kurds are going to be manageable if there is any semblence of self-sustainability in Iraqi Kurdistan.

If nothing else, even a multi-lateral brokered solution will pit the resulting government in Iraq against Turkey as those less oppressed in Iraq lend aid (and very likely arms) to their relatives in Turkey.

Since I don't see Iraq having the wherewithal to stand up against Turkey, only by trying (fail or succeed) to manage the entirety of the Kurds will resolve whether Turkey can maintain their aims of keeping Turkish Kurdistan intact - blood will have to be spilled.

Given the reputation of the Turkish military, this could be REALLY ugly.

But on a Machiavellian note, that would be one way to resolve the Iraq situation: get Turkey to pacify Iraq in exchange for a pro-Turkish resolution to the Iraq Kurdistan issue.

Furthermore as a Muslim nation, it will be a nice propaganda move - the jihadists will no longer be able to say it is the Great Satan America.