Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

    More commentary from China about the role of the dollar as a reserve currency -

    Theoretically, an international reserve currency should first be anchored to a stable benchmark and issued according to a clear set of rules, therefore to ensure orderly supply; second, its supply should be flexible enough to allow timely adjustment according to the changing demand; third, such adjustments should be disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country. The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history. The crisis again calls for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability.


    I. The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflect the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system.

    Issuing countries of reserve currencies are constantly confronted with the dilemma between achieving their domestic monetary policy goals and meeting other countries' demand for reserve currencies. On the one hand,the monetary authorities cannot simply focus on domestic goals without carrying out their international responsibilities??on the other hand,they cannot pursue different domestic and international objectives at the same time. They may either fail to adequately meet the demand of a growing global economy for liquidity as they try to ease inflation pressures at home, or create excess liquidity in the global markets by overly stimulating domestic demand. The Triffin Dilemma, i.e., the issuing countries of reserve currencies cannot maintain the value of the reserve currencies while providing liquidity to the world, still exists.

    When a national currency is used in pricing primary commodities, trade settlements and is adopted as a reserve currency globally, efforts of the monetary authority issuing such a currency to address its economic imbalances by adjusting exchange rate would be made in vain, as its currency serves as a benchmark for many other currencies. While benefiting from a widely accepted reserve currency, the globalization also suffers from the flaws of such a system. The frequency and increasing intensity of financial crises following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system suggests the costs of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits. The price is becoming increasingly higher, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws.

    II. The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.
    ...

    2. A super-sovereign reserve currency not only eliminates the inherent risks of credit-based sovereign currency, but also makes it possible to manage global liquidity. A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity. And when a country's currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_11074507.htm

  • #2
    Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

    This paper was re-published three days later by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) as an "Essential Document" at http://www.cfr.org/publication/18916/, with the opening:
    The People's Bank of China released this statement by Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank's governor, on March 23, 2009. It calls for replacing the dollar as the dominant world currency and creating "an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run".
    Zhou Xiaochuan is perhaps the most influential financial expert in the Chinese government. That both the CFR and the Chinese government (at http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail...ol=6500&id=178) publish this paper suggests that this is an important paper.
    Last edited by ThePythonicCow; September 24, 2009, 03:12 AM.
    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

      Yesterday, Sept 23, 2009, the following Reuters article appeared in Forbes at SDR proposal helped rebuff China critics -Zhou regarding the above paper and subsequent events.

      BEIJING, Sept 23 (Reuters) - China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Wednesday that he put forward a proposal earlier this year about a new global reserve currency to head off criticism about China's high savings rate and trade surplus. It was wrong to point the finger at China's policies as causes of the global financial crisis, he said in an interview on state television ahead of this week's G20 summit in Pittsburgh.
      ...
      Zhou's SDR proposal caused a stir in financial markets and was seized on by investors bearish about the dollar's prospects, though Chinese leaders have since distanced themselves from the ideas, saying it was mainly an academic debate.
      More at http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009...fx6921126.html
      Most folks are good; a few aren't.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

        Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
        Yesterday, Sept 23, 2009, the following Reuters article appeared in Forbes at SDR proposal helped rebuff China critics -Zhou regarding the above paper and subsequent events.

        More at http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009...fx6921126.html
        So where's the intelligent discussion by "the experts" on the inevitable unintended consequences of implementing this "super-sovereign reserve currency"?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
          So where's the intelligent discussion by "the experts" on the inevitable unintended consequences of implementing this "super-sovereign reserve currency"?
          What unintended consequences do you have in mind? I'm not sure what you're getting at here, sorry.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
            What unintended consequences do you have in mind? I'm not sure what you're getting at here, sorry.
            The idea of a "super sovereign reserve currency" is being touted as the solution to the disadvantages of continuing to use the US Dollar alone.

            However, I am sceptical that this seemingly "perfect" solution will prove to be anywhere near so perfect if actually implemented. I don't know what the pitfalls and unintended consequences may be. In fact I don't really much care what they are, because I don't see this perfect solution actually being implemented any time soon.

            What bothers me is that the now extreme anti-USA, anti-US$ sentiment may be driving the world to another "global groupthink" exercise with little to no consideration of the inevitable negative consequences of the solutions being proposed.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              So where's the intelligent discussion by "the experts" on the inevitable unintended consequences of implementing this "super-sovereign reserve currency"?
              It's about passing the bag to a new entity so it can end up like the US in 40 years. Then they'll find someone else to pass the bag to.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

                Originally posted by GRG55
                What bothers me is that the now extreme anti-USA, anti-US$ sentiment may be driving the world to another "global groupthink" exercise with little to no consideration of the inevitable negative consequences of the solutions being proposed.
                Agreed - while I'm definitely one of the anti-US (management), anti US$ (execution) crowd, a super sovereign global currency isn't ideal either.

                It just makes the pie bigger; if the entire ROW has to gang up to break the US reserve currency abuse, what happens when the entire world is subjugated under one fiat currency?

                I can see entire regions becoming PIIGS under a world sovereign currency.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

                  Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                  Agreed - while I'm definitely one of the anti-US (management), anti US$ (execution) crowd, a super sovereign global currency isn't ideal either.
                  Well, if we're going to dismiss alternatives for not being ideal, we'll end up with no alternatives.

                  At points like this in such discussions, one is so tempted to respond "so what would you suggest?" .

                  But I shall struggle to resist that temptation a little longer.

                  Rather let me note that I view Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal as distinct from a global currency or world Euro. I thought that Zhou Xiaochuan was proposing a two layered approach, keeping the existing national (or regional, in the case of the Euro) currencies and layering over them a meta-currency that could be used to exchange between and support those existing currencies.

                  Gold used to serve that role, amongst several other beloved roles it has and in some cases still serves. But the dynamics of the gold market became unsuited for the role of the world's meta-currency and it fell from such use during the period of about 1930 to 1971. Zhou Xiaochuan seems to me to be proposing a synthetic gold, really just a logical and legal construct, with appropriate dynamics regulated to current needs, to serve as the world's meta-currency.
                  Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

                    There needs to be some checks and balances. Not just some international BIS Basel III SDR derivative where a few guys in Switzerland pull the strings.

                    My first choice would be a basket of commodities, those are the resources/inputs for economic growth, and provide a good store of wealth.

                    But the governments love Fiat and if they absolutely won't entertain commodity tied currency, then at the very least have 3 or 5 super currencies that all free float. You could set it up Euro, Asian, North American, South America, African, Australia/Pacific. The only way fiat would work is if you have free floating currencies, and thereby the foreign exhanges of free markets setting the checks and balances.

                    Realistically this bubble was probably intentionally caused by a few individuals to produce the latter solution. By breaking the dollars back you have a chance to introduce other solutions to dominate the world. Face it the globalizationists have won and now the nationalists must scramble to at least make sure the entire earth does not fall under a financial fascist state. SDR's are a joke, and run right in line with the greedy international corporate conglomerates and bankstas that continue to buy the politicians and bully for tax free rides across all countryies soveriegn laws.

                    The Monopoly board of our own nation proved to small for the power and greed desired by the modern day corporate CEO

                    I love how nice we are to the Chinese despite bringing them up from the dark ages, signing one sided trade agreements, letting them steal intellectual property, peg their currency, and ultimately now every american has essentially deeded them our house. However, the fed is buying back the houses, in exchange for our future income production & wealth.

                    Pitchfork and torches to the capitol.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

                      http://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdf

                      full text of Zhou Xiaochuan's essay

                      Zhou Xiaochuan: Reform the international monetary system
                      Essay by Dr Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, 23 March 2009.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: China central bank: "Reform the International Monetary System"

                        I don't think a reserve currency is necessary. China should know this. If they're trying to "reform" the current system it's because they covet something they don't think they can get by trade alone.

                        A simple Excel spreadsheet can do all the "market pricing" math that is necessary. Post your asking price in your local currency, use an Excel spreadsheet to convert the bids in whatever currency they're placed. The FOREX markets can handle the conversions. You can make your FOREX trade the same time you make your goods trade if you want. You can "block" bids from unstable currencies and put the burden on the bidder to use a recognized form of "money".

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X