Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

[WDCRob]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Luke, I think the issue here is that you lurch from newsletter to newsletter and analyst to analyst with nothing to moor you to an idea a theory or anything remotely consistent.

And you have been flat out, on-the-record WRONG many times in the past couple years, but never seem to approach your next prognostication with any humility or recognition of the fact. Especially with regard to your accuracy vs iTulip's positions - which to my mind have overall been shockingly good so far (particularly when you look beyond the specifics to the underlying themes).

You just carry on with a full-throated defense of whatever shiny new analysis caught your eye that day - like the one above - as if nothing had come before.

[FRED]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I've been a jerk at times and maybe am on everyone's ignore list, but jeez no one has commented on that quote that I posted from Birinyi's companies blog?

In the Spring of 2007, they were publicly MOCKING the idea that housing was a bubble.

Moved this thread here in fact because of Birinyi's spotty record.

We are open to any challenge by any other macro forecasting group. However, the price of admission to take on iTulip is a record that is better not worse than iTulip's. Goes without saying that we have little to learn from groups that have a demonstrably poor methodology.

[rogermexico]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I would agree if that were the case. But Lukester's posts have become much like the undergraduate papers I must slog through at this time of year; rather than providing analysis and developing his argument in a systematic fashion, Lukester relies on a few selected resources and continues to spew out the same argument with different words, relying upon someone else's research and analysis. (Yes, many of us rely on EJ's research and analysis in the same manner, but I for one do not go to other websites and trumpet his views.) Then Lukester says, "What if I am right and EJ is wrong?" over and over again, while failing to respond to what EJ actually says.

Lukester also accuses everyone on iTulip of group think, which is really an insult to our intelligence. I would say that just about everyone here is capable of weighing the merits of Lukester's arguments against those of EJ's arguments. We are not following EJ blindly, nor would he ask that we do so. We are evaluating his analysis and his arguments and have found them to be quite insightful. I for one have saved tens of thousands of dollars by following some of the advice gleaned from these pages. There are also individuals such as Bart and others that have arrived at the same conclusions through their own analysis and often provide supporting data. This is a far cry from group think.

So, unfortunately, Lukester's arguments have become a bit tiresome, especially as he is not developing his own argument in the same methodical way that EJ has, but is instead reasserting someone else's arguments over and over again.

As a lesson in economics, Lukester is attempting to illustrate how the tragedy of the commons applies in cyberpsace.

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

As a lesson in economics, Lukester is attempting to illustrate how the tragedy of the commons applies in cyberpsace.

yes, except it's not a commons. it's a private club & it needs to be managed better, imho. less noise, more signal. my suggestions...

non-news posts on news

solution... move non-new posts from news to other forums or delete them.

competing forecasts from other site that don't rate... worse record than itulip's.

solution... move to a new forum called 'competing theories'

only argue about competing theories from sites that have a better record than itulip's... really, what's the point of debating the merits of a theory from sites that have a crappy track record?

after many years at itulip it's irritating to pay $$$ and engage with neophytes... waste of my time. some days i feel like i've spent years getting good at playing pool, go to the pool hall and some days get to play with others who have played for years and other days with kids who've never held a stick before. i bet it sucks for them, too.

solution... create forum levels... jr high, high school, college, grad school.

how to move from one to another? tests? seriously. jr high schoolers can read the high school and upper forums but can't post to them until they pass a test. else, tragedy of the commons and itulip whithers and dies. my 2 cents.

[c1ue]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

after many years at itulip it's irritating to pay $$$ and engage with neophytes... waste of my time. some days i feel like i've spent years getting good at playing pool, go to the pool hall and some days get to play with others who have played for years and other days with kids who've never held a stick before. i bet it sucks for them, too.

solution... create forum levels... jr high, high school, college, grad school.

how to move from one to another? tests? seriously. jr high schoolers can read the high school and upper forums but can't post to them until they pass a test. else, tragedy of the commons and itulip whithers and dies. my 2 cents.

Metalman,

Sorry, I have to disagree with your slant on this issue.

While certainly some degree of editorial control is useful - on the other hand the point is to spread the message.

You can't spread the message if only the brightest and most up to date 'get' it.

The work you have done and continue to do in bringing newcomers up to date is fine - I simply believe that forcing present and potential iTulipers to pass 'tests' in order to get to the next level is a foolish one.

If you are so irritated by the neophytes and the mini-bullhorns, stick to the Select area.

I'll freely admit that I ceased reading all new posts in News last month, but my hope that the general quality level would return has been justified.

[rogermexico]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

yes, except it's not a commons. it's a private club & it needs to be managed better, imho. less noise, more signal. my suggestions...

non-news posts on news

solution... move non-new posts from news to other forums or delete them.

competing forecasts from other site that don't rate... worse record than itulip's.

solution... move to a new forum called 'competing theories'

only argue about competing theories from sites that have a better record than itulip's... really, what's the point of debating the merits of a theory from sites that have a crappy track record?

after many years at itulip it's irritating to pay $$$ and engage with neophytes... waste of my time. some days i feel like i've spent years getting good at playing pool, go to the pool hall and some days get to play with others who have played for years and other days with kids who've never held a stick before. i bet it sucks for them, too.

solution... create forum levels... jr high, high school, college, grad school.

how to move from one to another? tests? seriously. jr high schoolers can read the high school and upper forums but can't post to them until they pass a test. else, tragedy of the commons and itulip whithers and dies. my 2 cents.

Yes, that is what I getting at. Unless EJ chooses to treat it more as a private domain, some will keep bringing their dogs here just to crap.

To me it is more the constant name-calling, the endless self-aggrandizement and the sneering that is so off-putting. Most posts with the "F" word are far more civil than L's. The content and reasoning behind the large vocabulary is so thin it is of no consequence.

[jpatter666]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Metalman,
Do you really feel things have spun that far out of control? You can ignore whomever you don't want to read either deliberately or via auto-filters. Why am I suddenly reminded of the final conversation between Batman and the Joker in The Dark Knight w/regard to you and Lukester? :rolleyes:

I *really* dislike the idea of restricted (to a hand-picked few) comment areas. There seems to be a very large number of exceptionally knowledgeable people lurking in the background and every now and again one pops up with some very on-point comments. I don't want to run the risk of missing that. If I have to put up with some noise, fine. I can tune things to my own preferences.

A moderated forum area might work with moderation being performed by the starter of the thread. Don't know if iTulip could handle that but it's a thought.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

You can ignore whomever you don't want to read either deliberately or via auto-filters.

Agreed.

The moderators can and do keep out the obvious stuff, like pictures of my nekkid sista or advertisements for the cosmetic products I've been trying to sell to my neighbors.

But it is fitting and proper that we each individually bear some burden to pick and choose what we read and what we don't read.

With forums as with governments - one should not be asking The Man to "make it all nice for us."

[Basil]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Basil, will you concede this for a pompous reply if the S&P is significantly higher by end of year? Or how about when it's 30% higher than today - are your comments moored by any accountability, where your cavalier and expansively confident expectations meet the real market 12 or 18 months from now?

Your objection - "he does not elaborate his arguments in a sufficiently methodical way", is an objection you could level at any number of other iTulipers. You level it at me only because it flags your "parsing filter" which is set to flag any posts suggesting outcomes in diametric opposition to iTulip calls.

Whenever people take that slightly limp wristed lofty tone with me, (a.k.a. - "fatigues me, like grading my student's papers", as you put it) I tend to dig in my heels and generally just give them a pass.

You have climbed out on a branch here, and you will look a little foolish in this statment in a year's time if the market is rising sharply. You wing it this same conjectural seat-of-the-pants way, when grading those hapless student's papers as well?

You are calling my suggestions foolish, and also are implying Birinyi is merelyfoolish. Do you happen to know the outcome of this stock market event, or are you just mouthing off here? If you don't know the outcome, how can you reliably rate my suggestion as merely "tiresome"?

What are my cavalier and expansively confident expectations? I do not think you know what I expect. For the most part, I have learned not to doubt EJ. I come here and to a number of other sites, but I do not go around on any site trumpeting the analysis I have found another site.

I acknowledge that I do not have the time or expertise to actually know what I am talking about when it comes to financial and economic matters and should, for the most part, be quite in the presence of the experts who do not only have the expertise, but a proven track record.

It is true that the vast majority of posters on iTulip do not lay out their arguments in a methodical manner that is backed by years of experience and excellent analysis, but the vast majority also do not make market calls. They know that they do not have the expertise required to do so. Most also have the humility to know their limitations.

Also, I don't recall using the word "foolish." Many people write excellent papers following the methodology I mentioned in my previous post. Still it is not original analysis and does not qualify one to be an expert.

Anyone can make a market call. Very, very few have the ability to substantiate their calls with research, analysis and experience. I do not and you do not.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Fred - Your editorial discretion as to what constitutes real news on the News page seems quite broad. Also, setting high vetting, or admission requirements of other analysts being quotable, can be read two ways - On the one hand you get your stringent standards, but on the other hand it also sets up a hefty moat around the iTulip theme.

That can be interpreted in some cases as iTulip not considering it's core themes open to challenge within it's forum pages, when that is in the form of a simple divergent analyst call. This is certainly your prerogative. But it's not set against a backdrop of perfection. I've noted in minor ways' iTulip can fudge at least a few details on occasion.

EJ said a while back he was only $40 off on his bottom in gold call. But it actually bottomed at $681, not $740, while EJ called it at $780. I think he then referred more than once to the bottom for the gold price as being "only $40 off" his call.

Now there's lots of superb stuff here at iTulip, and this is a trivially small point, but maybe with iTulip being just a thin hair less than flawless, that is enough of a hair-thin discrepancy to allow a "second-rater" like Birinyi a modest season ticket in the iTulip news forums? I understand meanwhile, that he is disqualified because his past record contains an unsatisfactory number of errors?

I remember iTulip adopting the Peak Oil story, which it had been totally oblivious about in early 2007. I managed to get you interested enough about it to check the story out. You took a second look, and adopted it. I remember being a bit bemused afterwards that I never obtained so much as a two word acknowledgement in any post.

Well I also certainly understand that the inclusion of Peak Cheap Oil the iTulip accepted themes was only achieved after some wrangling about it. Meanwhile, iTulip has been just a hint reluctant to tip it's hat to some other analysts out there who may be "generic" as opposed to practicing economists, and this may in a certain light also be regarded as a "cutting off at the knees" of all the rest of the analysts voices.

And it also bears noting that it still is a little early in the year to be pronouncing Birinyi completely deluded on this question. As for the news pages being kept free of marginal content, there are all sorts of quotes more tenuous than Birinyi on the news pages. Nothing pejorative to that at all - it's just the regular iTulip conversations routinely discussing all sorts of minor topics anyway.

I'll note however that all of the everyday posting in forums, with lots of comments wandering into hundreds of secondary topics, don't seem to meet nearly the same stringent guidelines for "admission" to "viable news discussion" as the occasional analyst like Birinyi does! Perhaps the stringency applied in his case therefore, is not entirely unaffected by his having a diametrically contrary market view?

I am wondering if the assertion "we are open to challenge" offers a bit of latitude for implementation. Maybe if Birinyi's posted article had been about some other more neutral market topic, it would have been permitted to remain? And setting such a high bar to entry for quotable other analysts, also works pretty efficiently as an "idea" or "thesis" moat.

It's not impossible that the markets go net-up from here. Birinyi is not a "total loss" as an analyst, and Biggs even a good deal better. Some others seem to migrate to this view each month now. I got a hint of this thesis six months ago, and mentioned it here a few times. I get the generalized impression that this "the market can rise" notion has not gotten the most cordial reception here.

Arguably, iTulip's view about 2009 / 2010 turning into a "rising inflationary environment", actually overlaps with Birinyi's and Barton Bigg's own suggestions as rising consumer inflation is not incompatible with some sharp moves up in the equities. But you seem to assert "categorically" that in all inflationary environments sustained and significant stock moves "can't ever happen".

Here's Barton Biggs on why stocks are going to rally hard. My 0.02 cents: iTulip really need to be a little less high handed with how they dispose of dissenting opinions:

[media]http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Biggs%20Forecasts%20%60Strong%20and%20Powerful'% 20Recovery%20in%20Stocks&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vfbY4JouYEhA.asf[/media]

Moved this thread here in fact because of Birinyi's spotty record. We are open to any challenge by any other macro forecasting group. However, the price of admission to take on iTulip is a record that is better not worse than iTulip's. Goes without saying that we have little to learn from groups that have a demonstrably poor methodology.

I am going to re-post this as a new thread in "Rant & Rave" to make sure enough people get a chance to read this comment.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Basil - you don't grasp the point. I am not "making forecasts" - Birinyi is an analyst, who is "making a forecast". I am "stating my opinions", which is something different - and I am supposedly free to continue stating my opinions on what this market can do going forwards, because this is a forum where people come to make comments on the markets. Now please take your Calvinistic-hair-shirt sentiment elsewhere if the stating of opinions here offends your sensibilities.

What are my cavalier and expansively confident expectations? I do not think you know what I expect. For the most part, I have learned not to doubt EJ. I come here and to a number of other sites, but I do not go around on any site trumpeting the analysis I have found another site.

I acknowledge that I do not have the time or expertise to actually know what I am talking about when it comes to financial and economic matters and should, for the most part, be quite in the presence of the experts who do not only have the expertise, but a proven track record.

It is true that the vast majority of posters on iTulip do not lay out their arguments in a methodical manner that is backed by years of experience and excellent analysis, but the vast majority also do not make market calls. They know that they do not have the expertise required to do so. Most also have the humility to know their limitations.

Also, I don't recall using the word "foolish." Many people write excellent papers following the methodology I mentioned in my previous post. Still it is not original analysis and does not qualify one to be an expert.

Anyone can make a market call. Very, very few have the ability to substantiate their calls with research, analysis and experience. I do not and you do not.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Notice to all the constipated, the grudge nursing, and the various enthusiastically self-appointed "content policemen boy scouts" - you need to take the self-righteous, self-appointed and dubiously self-supervised content policing comments here:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10022

Or we can have a formal discussion on the merits of self appointed content policemen and arrive at a verdict on the merit of your selfless policing by general vote. Short of that, just bug off.

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Agreed.

The moderators can and do keep out the obvious stuff, like pictures of my nekkid sista

damn... how'd i miss those? gotta be quick around here.

But it is fitting and proper that we each individually bear some burden to pick and choose what we read and what we don't read.

With forums as with governments - one should not be asking The Man to "make it all nice for us."

true. i'm thinking more along the lines fred's talked about... like a bar/restaurant.

right...

'this place is great. i like the people who come here... they are knowledgeable and treat each other with respect, even when they argue, and make careful, thoughtful, and concise arguments... the proprietors really know what they're doing, the food and service are great. that said, now that i am familiar with the way the place works, may i suggest x, y, z to improve it...'

wrong...

'this place sucks. the people who come here are morons... i know more than any and all of them do... about everything... like oil and etns. even if they've been in the industry 10 or 40 years... i once read an article about it on prisonplanet.com so know much more than they ever will... and i'll enlighten them every day... argue with anyone for the sake of arguing, and insult others whenever possible... i can't be bothered to learn how things work around here. who cares? i'm bigger than this place. the proprietors are morons, too. they have no idea what they're talking about. they are always wrong. i am always right. whine, whine, whine, bitch, bitch, bitch,... (2435 words here)... blah, blah, blah...'

[Spartacus]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

somebody imputing views to you that you do not hold?

I'm shocked and appalled.[*]

Get used to it.

What are my cavalier and expansively confident expectations?

[*] sarcatic? MOI? perish the thought.

[Spartacus]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I think it's Parkinson's law - a task expands to fill up the time you give it.

There can be group solutions and private solutions

solution: limit yourself to 20 minutes (or 30 or 100) of iTulip reading per day ... enough so you know you can read all the stuff you signed up for, and limit crap.

STICK TO YOUR LIMIT.

Miss something important? YOUR FAULT - you should have skipped the useless & gone to the proven "this poster is worth it 90% of the time".

That may mean putting me on ignore too ... and that would be perfectly OK with me. I try to post good stuff and IMHO I've posted a small amount of silver, and a tiny amount of comedy rhodium. But for all the good, practical, useful info I've posted, I've also posted 10 times that mount of sarcastic, useless cr*p.

yes, except it's not a commons. it's a private club & it needs to be managed better, imho. less noise, more signal. my suggestions...

non-news posts on news

solution... move non-new posts from news to other forums or delete them.

competing forecasts from other site that don't rate... worse record than itulip's.

solution... move to a new forum called 'competing theories'

only argue about competing theories from sites that have a better record than itulip's... really, what's the point of debating the merits of a theory from sites that have a crappy track record?

after many years at itulip it's irritating to pay $$$ and engage with neophytes... waste of my time. some days i feel like i've spent years getting good at playing pool, go to the pool hall and some days get to play with others who have played for years and other days with kids who've never held a stick before. i bet it sucks for them, too.

solution... create forum levels... jr high, high school, college, grad school.

how to move from one to another? tests? seriously. jr high schoolers can read the high school and upper forums but can't post to them until they pass a test. else, tragedy of the commons and itulip whithers and dies. my 2 cents.