The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

You shouldn’t believe me, Jim; but you should pay attention to the long term economic and stratified social/behavioral implications of facts contained in readily available public sources:


As I said in the first sentence, don’t believe me. Do gather information, analyze it to the best of your ability, and come to conclusions. It’s what I do; I just happen to be extremely confident my conclusions are correct. Time will tell.

Thanks, DrYB/C. Extreme confidence in anything versus guarantees are two different things. Thanks for continuing your thoughts. You write well and obviously have thought about these things that concern you.

There is a ton of stuff for everyone to read who can bear to try. Why not draw some conclusions about whatever you think? Perhaps others have time to attempt to solve riddles, but I, for one, generally don't. Keep thinking and posting. Nearing 67, I ain't personally too worried about what may worry a lot of others here that may be 25-30 years off.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

I thought of Ackerman today while paying $3.61 for regular, as opposed to $3.51 two weeks ago and $3.45 a week before that and dad reports that prices are up to $3.25 in N.E. Massachusetts...And that really sucks for him, as he drives his car for a living and his gasoline allowance isn't going up at the same rate.

Meanwhile, our profits dropped by 18% from 3rd quarter '07 into 4th quarter '07 and 1st quarter '08. There is no joy in Babbittville.

At this very moment I am listening to a radio commercial for nomoneymove.com that tells me I'm throwing money away by renting instead owning a home. What year is this again?

[c1ue]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

DrYB/C,

I was with you until you started saying the MCFCs were bankrupting the US in order to promote a green world economy.

And why would they give a rat's butt about 'green'?

The rich have always ignored normal events - knowing full well that their money and power mean that even should the glaciers return, that they'd ski to the tropics on the bare asses of the serfs.

[Guest]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

Moved To Bottom Of Thread

[Guest]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

After a 50% up-move on gold in a mere six months, this is what passes for analysis by Mr. Ackerman - gold's "muted, uninspiring message to the markets".? He appears to be taking a single week's "dull price action" in gold, and speculating about deflationary harbingers in a "flat gold price". Meantime the copious references to "extremely inflationary implications of the Fed's latest rescue plan give the unmistakeable impression the deflation message is getting obscured in a cloud of smoke amongst the newly discovered "inflationary signals". Mr. Ackerman appears to be covering his ass - a time hallowed practice followed when one begins to uncomfortably surmise one may be boxed into a corner.

Take it away Mr. Ackerman ...
-
So Why Did Gold Barely Budge?

For edition of March 12, 2008

A tediously dull gold market appeared yesterday to shrug off the extremely inflationary implications of the Fed’s latest rescue plan for the banking system. The central bank sent shares soaring on Wall Street with the announcement that it will set aside $200 billion of Treasurys to lend to banks and securities dealers. The unsubtle subtext was that the central bank would accept as collateral for such loans any worthless or nearly worthless scraps of paper the borrowers might have lying around. That would represent a radical and unprecedented augmentation of the Fed’s role as lender of last resort, especially since no one believes that the initial, $200 billion will prove to be much more than the ante in this global-stakes game.

Considering the news, gold’s yawning reaction was most puzzling. Is it possible that bullion finally agrees with the theory, broached here with increasing urgency in recent months, that deflationary forces emerging in the financial sector have grown too powerful to be countered by loose monetary policy, no matter how profligate?

_______________


Mr. Ackerman then hauls out the "straw man arguments" again - obliquely implying to readers that those disagreeing with his view are proponents of "hyperinflation" with subtle undertones of hysteria implied within such wild eyed contrary views to his own. Point is, no-one here ever suggested to Mr. Ackerman the argument was for "hyperinflation". The suggestions made to him were for "high and continuous inflation". The "hyper" reference is his embellishment to pump up the straw man against which his arguments may find a foil. Pardon my bluntness, but this closing paragraph has "cover your ass" written all over it. "Gold may do well in a deflation" !!! LOL!

_______________

No Hyperinflation

That is what we expect, and it implies there will ultimately be no hyperinflation. However, as long as the threat of one seems real, gold and silver quotes are likely to remain firm. But the threat could vanish quickly if and when the speculative blowoff that has seized commodity markets ends, presumably taking the stock market with it. Even then, precious metals are bound to outperform other classes of investment assets and hold their purchasing power. [ CYA !!] But it nonetheless remains a possibility that this will come about because their price has fallen less steeply than that of other assets and investables.

Full article here: http://www.rickackerman.com/commenta...ely_Budge.html

[zenith191]

Re: The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

Are we counting in dollars, euros, yen, real, gold, bushels of wheat, fixed commodity baskets or those huge round stone wheels that they use somewhere or other? Tell me that, then we can talk inflation or deflation.

The islanders of Uap call them fei