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PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Structure

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  • PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Structure

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...driven-by.html

    PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Structure




    US equities were gripped by panic selling as the Dow plunged almost 1,000 points driven by a cascade of 100 share high frequency program trading, estimated to have been about 80% of volume. Gold rocketed higher to $1,210.

    The stock exchange circuit breakers do not apply after 2:30 PM NY time.

    This was highly reminiscent of the 1987 crash driven by a flawed market structure. The entire rally off the February lows resembled a low volume Ponzi scheme, and had formed a huge air pocket under prices.

    As so many have pointed out, this rally was driven by the Banks and the hedge funds. There was and still ia deep shortage of legitimate buying at these price levels. This was machine driven speculation enabled by the lack of reform in a system riddled with corruption, from the bottom to the top.

    This is yet another indication that the US regulatory and market oversight organizations, especially the SEC and CFTC, continue to be disconnected from and remarkably ineffective in their responsibilities in guarding the public against gross market imbalances, price manipulation, and abuses from insiders playing with cheap money supplied by the NY Fed.

    And as you might expect, the anchors on financial television are trying to excuse and blame the sell off on a 'fat finger' order that caused Proctor and Gamble to drop 20 points in 45 seconds. Or a typist inputting an order to sell 16 million e-mini SP futures, and typing "B" instead of "M." Oops. Crashed the free world.

    Even if any of this was true, it was just the spark that caused the market to plummet because of its highly unstable, artificial, and inherently manipulative operational structure. There is no longer any price discovery. The US financial system is a casino, dominated by a few big Banks and hedge funds, the gangs of New York.

    They'll never learn. Or is it 'we?' They may not really care.





    The Market Makers were doing God's work and maintaining order flow, liquidity, and stability.



    The Volatility Index VIX Rocketed



    Proctor and Gamble ONE Minute Chart



    As I said, I was long gold and short stocks all week. I took those positions off the table in the plunge.

    Now we go into the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Even if I made money, this is one broken market, and the plunge was no accident, but the consequence of corruption, neglect, and obscenely ineffective governance.




    Posted by Jesse at 3:01 PM

  • #2
    Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

    OK, lets assume your hypothesis is true ...

    The plunge was no accident. The squid or some other evil doer took it down to clean up on a bunch of stops. Does that mean that the squid will now rock the market higher tomorrow, and slowly sell
    all of those positions out? On the chart there is a volume gap, but that is on the upstroke, I don't know if on a simpleton chart price and volume are exactly aligned.

    Next question ...
    The web is abuzz about JPM giant silver short. Will it be time to try the same thing on PM's tomorrow. Force the stops out??

    I think I will set some crazy buy limits tomorrow on some PM etf's and see if I can catch any action.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

      Originally posted by Camtender View Post
      And as you might expect, the anchors on financial television are trying to excuse and blame the sell off on a 'fat finger' order that caused Proctor and Gamble to drop 20 points in 45 seconds.

      And this is supposed to make us feel better? That any clerk, in any brokerage in the world, can crash the economy of the planet with a couple bad keystrokes?
      Last edited by thriftyandboringinohio; May 07, 2010, 01:07 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

        Originally posted by Camtender View Post
        The stock exchange circuit breakers do not apply after 2:30 PM NY time.
        Or the plunge was not big enough

        Even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average's brief 1,000-point tumble Thursday fell just short of a 10% decline from Wednesday's close, a 20% drop would have been needed to halt trading.
        After 2:30 p.m. EDT, the 20% standard goes into effect. Before then, a 10% drop would have triggered at least a 30-minute halt. For the second quarter, 10% equals a 1,050-point drop in the Dow industrials while 20% equates to 2,150 points.


        http://english.capital.gr/news.asp?id=963241

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

          LOL! Too many threads discussing this, maybe this is the most appropriate one for this post.
          From Felix Salmon,

          How can the market go, on a random Thursday afternoon, completely insane? The story which is emerging centers on old, boring Procter & Gamble, as can be seen in the PG chart from this afternoon.
          Look at the volume chart: what you see here is a big block of shares trading in P&G at around 2:30, followed by another huge block right before the market crashed. And then, nothing. The two big blocks were probably sell orders, which were big enough to blow through all the bids in the market. As Henry Blodget says, “for a few minutes, buyers just disappeared”.
          It’s worth noting here that none of this data is particularly reliable: the Nasdaq is reportedly confirming that there were technical problems with the P&G quote, and there are persistent rumors of a “fat finger” trade as well, which I’m not sure that I believe.
          If the market were rational, it could cope without difficulty with such things. There’s no bid on P&G right now? Fine, wait five minutes and see if you can get a bid then. But there were stop-loss orders on P&G, which meant forced selling into a no-bid market, and if these trades really happened, then a couple of people who are surely going to celebrate tonight were in the right place at the right time and bought up a small amount of the stock in the high 40s.
          In any case, whether the trades actually happened or not, they were reported to the exchanges, and were immediately reflected in the Dow, which remember is an average and not an index. If P&G is off 14 points, and the Dow’s divisor is 0.132319125, then that one trade in itself wipes 100 points off the Dow in a matter of seconds.
          The timing of that 100-point fall could not have been worse: stocks had started selling off about five minutes earlier, and so the 100-point drop came into a market which was already getting jittery and panicked. The velocity and severity of that drop in the Dow immediately triggered stop-loss selling in the market more generally, which then started feeding on itself: even as P&G’s share price was recovering, bids were falling away rapidly in the other 29 Dow components, and at one point the Dow was down just a hair short of 1,000 points on the day.
          But the fact is that none of these numbers are all that meaningful: what we were seeing was traders flailing around in a context of limited information and liquidity, trying to get a grip on what was or wasn’t going on. There was always the possibility, after all, that the sellers knew something they didn’t, and that stocks were actually falling for a reason. So it took a few minutes for the market to realize that it was all just market volatility — and therefore a great buying opportunity for any trader.
          It’s been a very impressive day to learn how the stock-market sausage is made: I think we just saw the largest intraday fall, in point terms, that has ever happened. But the bigger lesson is that in the short term, any market can fail temporarily. The question is whether the jitters from this afternoon are going to mean increased volatility and risk aversion going forwards. My feeling is that, yes, they both will and should.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

            Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
            OK, lets assume your hypothesis is true ...

            The plunge was no accident. The squid or some other evil doer took it down to clean up on a bunch of stops. Does that mean that the squid will now rock the market higher tomorrow, and slowly sell
            all of those positions out? On the chart there is a volume gap, but that is on the upstroke, I don't know if on a simpleton chart price and volume are exactly aligned.

            Next question ...
            The web is abuzz about JPM giant silver short. Will it be time to try the same thing on PM's tomorrow. Force the stops out??

            I think I will set some crazy buy limits tomorrow on some PM etf's and see if I can catch any action.
            I bought some DIA calls about 20 minutes before the market closed expecting a bounce up tomorrow. We'll see.
            I also saw some ASK prices (from quotes on Yahoo) for $200,000! Either this was a mistake, or someone was fishing
            for people placing market orders in markets with very low liquidity.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

              i think the fat finger is b.s. I have never worked in the financial industry before, but I have worked in the airline industry. Working with the group that sets prices on tickets. There is a system to adjust the prices, and it works on wild cards. for example I can enter ord - * 5/5/2010 x 90% and bam I can reduce every ticket price outbound from chicago by 10%. There are a ton of safe guards in the system for example, before sending this command into the res system, the program would calculate how many flights this will effect and if it is really big number, it may ask for manager approval, are you sure etc. etc.
              There were some hard limits too like you could not change the price by more the 20% if you used an origin and destination wild card.

              I had the grim task of cleaning up after 9/11. Every plane was on the ground in airports they should never have been at in the first place all of the user interface systems disallowed changes because they exceeded limits. You can't say cancel * -- * for example. I wrote code on the fly, to over-ride many of the limits on the user interface. Once past the user interface, other parts of the batch system started blowing up as the pig passed through the python (Sorry PCow). The adjustment routine was never meant to handle 1700 flights per day.
              It was a very stressful and interesting time in my life.

              I was also in emergency management too, and my pager went off just one too many times for my comfort the morning of 9/11. I thought for sure that the missing plane (Shanksville) had augured in at chicago when my pager went off and the flight was unaccounted for.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                If you think the Procter & Gamble drop was surreal... this one is only possible if aliens started nuking the Earth...

                From $40.00 to $0.01 in 1 MINUTE!!!!!... Under the right circumstances somebody could have become a billionaire in 1 minute!

                Warning: Network Engineer talking economics!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                  Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
                  OK, lets assume your hypothesis is true ...

                  The plunge was no accident. The squid or some other evil doer took it down to clean up on a bunch of stops.
                  Captain Hook over at treasurechestsinfo.com has been explaining the rise of the stock markets over the last year in part as a perpetual short squeeze. The bears keep shorting, and keep having to cover, pushing the market higher. There are always two sides to any transaction, but the price usually moves in the direction against the more desperate of the two. That would be the covering short seller in a rising market, in this case.

                  But over this last week, Captain Hook has been documenting a weakening of this bearish sentiment. The bears are shorting less. He figures this could allow the market to decline, finally.

                  What if (my speculation, not Mr. Hook's) the Squid noticed this same thing, and decided to juice the bears a little? "Get back to work Mr. Bear! You have not yet handed over all your honey money."
                  Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                    Interesting volume spike at 13:35 there ...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                      I was almost a 3K aire. I had limit order to buy HAP, it filled at around 30. Had it been a little lower, maybe I would have hit at .15c. Order was only for 100 shares, ... maybe.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                        they just unwound everything. The whole thing never happened. Move along.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                          a dealer tried to execute a million dollar trade from an iphone? lol

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc

                            Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
                            they just unwound everything. The whole thing never happened. Move along.
                            Like the "Dream Season" on Dallas

                            Mad Scientist Poof 60x79.gif

                            Maybe it was Adam Smith's Invisible Hand

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: PLUNGE! 1987 Style - Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Struc I was away and out of the market today enjoying time off work. My jaw dropped when I saw the blow up when I came home. The liquidation actually started from corporate junk bond market (HYG) before equity market blew up. Somebody liquidated a large chunk of risk funded in Yen (FXY). The Dow was just a side show. HYG-2010-06-05.jpg

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