What going on here?

[Mega]

http://www.investmentrarities.com/te...01-11-10.shtml

They expecting a rush of inflation?
Mike

[jpatter666]

Re: What going on here?

Eh....Butler is convinced the silver market is manipulated -- has been for decades. Maybe, maybe not, although Fleckenstein's site gets this question every month it seems and he always replies it's nonsense.

[Mega]

Re: What going on here?

Everything is "Controled"
Mike

[ASH]

Re: What going on here?

Everything is "Controled"
Mike

One of the things that caught my eye in Galbraith's The Great Crash, 1929 was the pervasive belief that "they" were controlling the market, and could make the market do whatevery "they" found convenient. This wasn't the case in 1929: the group of wealthy bankers and investors identified as "they" by the public generally lost their shirts, and failed to bend the market to their will, despite some noteable efforts to move the market.

It is counter-factual to conclude that there are no attempts at market manipulation, ever, as there are clear historical examples of this... at least for small markets like silver. Other markets, such as those for government bonds or banking reserves, are manipulated so overtly as a matter of public policy that 'conspiracy' seems too grand a term for the manipulation.

On the other hand, I think there is far too much reliance on "they" as an explanation when something happens in a market that one does not understand. Conspiracy theory is a cousin of superstition, and is a perpetual invitation to intellectual laziness. Systems like the weather or the markets which exhibit broadly predictible patterns punctuated by unpredictable excursions tend to lead human observers to hypothesize hidden control. Obviously, sometimes there is hidden control, but for systems which are quite clearly chaotic, our baseline expectation should not be regular behavior consistent with a neat set of variables and rules. Violation of simple expectations is the rule -- not prima facie evidence of manipulation.

[rjwjr]

Re: What going on here?

One of the things that caught my eye in Galbraith's The Great Crash, 1929 was the pervasive belief that "they" were controlling the market, and could make the market do whatevery "they" found convenient. This wasn't the case in 1929: the group of wealthy bankers and investors identified as "they" by the public generally lost their shirts, and failed to bend the market to their will, despite some noteable efforts to move the market.

It is counter-factual to conclude that there are no attempts at market manipulation, ever, as there are clear historical examples of this... at least for small markets like silver. Other markets, such as those for government bonds or banking reserves, are manipulated so overtly as a matter of public policy that 'conspiracy' seems too grand a term for the manipulation.

On the other hand, I think there is far too much reliance on "they" as an explanation when something happens in a market that one does not understand. Conspiracy theory is a cousin of superstition, and is a perpetual invitation to intellectual laziness. Systems like the weather or the markets which exhibit broadly predictible patterns punctuated by unpredictable excursions tend to lead human observers to hypothesize hidden control. Obviously, sometimes there is hidden control, but for systems which are quite clearly chaotic, our baseline expectation should not be regular behavior consistent with a neat set of variables and rules. Violation of simple expectations is the rule -- not prima facie evidence of manipulation.

So you are saying that "they" also control the weather?! I knew it!!

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What going on here?

This wasn't the case in 1929: the group of wealthy bankers and investors identified as "they" by the public generally lost their shirts, and failed to bend the market to their will, despite some noteable efforts to move the market.

While that may be true, "they" quickly replaced those shirts with other damn nice shirts.

Citi was City Bank Farmers Trust Company in 1929

BoA? In 1928, A. P. Giannini merged with Bank of America Los Angeles and consolidated it with his other bank holdings to create what would become the largest banking institution in the country. He renamed his Bank of Italy November 3, 1930, calling it Bank of America.

Morgan Bank and Chase Manhatten were separate companies in 1929 but also managed to replace any shirts they lost in 1929.

[tombat1913]

Re: What going on here?

Conspiracy Theories are nothing like superstition or intellectual laziness if they are well researched and meticulously documented. Conspiracies happen all over the world, all the time. How many thosands of examples could a person uncover in history books. They're only referred to as theories until the truth comes out and then they're simply called history. The problem is that people refuse, for various reasons, to sincerely contemplate meticulously documented and compiled evidence if it sounds in any way conspiratorial, especially when their government overlords are involved. It all gets filed in the U.F.O's/bigfoot file, THAT is intellectual laziness!

[Starving Steve]

Re: What going on here?

Conspiracy Theories are nothing like superstition or intellectual laziness if they are well researched and meticulously documented. Conspiracies happen all over the world, all the time. How many thosands of examples could a person uncover in history books. They're only referred to as theories until the truth comes out and then they're simply called history. The problem is that people refuse, for various reasons, to sincerely contemplate meticulously documented and compiled evidence if it sounds in any way conspiratorial, especially when their government overlords are involved. It all gets filed in the U.F.O's/bigfoot file, THAT is intellectual laziness!

I have a conspiracy theory which you may file under Big-foot and UFOs:
Bernanke bailing-out Bank of America, Citi Corp, Citi Bank, GMAC, GM, AIG, Chyrsler, Goldman-Sachs, among a few others. And my theory is that Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner are profiting from these bail-outs and passing secret information on to Wall Street. My theory is that this entire episode of zero or negative real interest rates is a conspiracy to rake-in billions of dollars at the expense of savers and pensioners.

I admit that I am a moron and have little first-hand information, but there is a great deal of funny stuff going on now at the Federal Reserve Bank, far beyond anything I have ever witnessed before in my life of 61 years.

I will not vote for the Democrats after seeing this, and I am a liberal and a socialist, from a family of socialists who were active in the Democratic-Farmer-Labour Party in Minnesota for more than a generation. The key evidence is the retention by the Obama Administration of Bernanke to head the Federal Reserve's FOMC.

I just will stay home and not vote--- which unfortunately is a vote for the Republicans. But the Demos have proved themselves to be the same as the Republicans.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Add to this outrage with Bernanke, the funny business with passing national health insurance in America. Again, the Democrats proved to be no different than the Republicans. The Democrats passed health reform written by the private for-profit health insurance lobbyists in Washington. How shameful! With Democrats like that, who needs to worry about Republicans?

And at least with the Republicans, we would have had an energy plan by now, not Obama's windmills and solar panels.

[shiny!]

Re: What going on here?

I just will stay home and not vote--- which unfortunately is a vote for the Republicans. But the Demos have proved themselves to be the same as the Republicans.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

They're Republocrats. One party masquerading as two. If you look at where the pols get their campaign funding from, you'll see that both Dems and Repubs are bought and paid for by the same special interests. Doesn't matter who gets elected, the special interests have their toadies to do their bidding.

The Republocrats keep us squabbling over left vs. right, liberal vs. conservative, while behind the curtain, the banksters and corporate-owned government rob us blind.

I think that every ballot should have to have the option of "None of the Above". If "None of the Above" gets more votes than the candidates, the parties would have to field new candidates in special elections until they give us someone decent to vote for.

[ASH]

Re: What going on here?

Conspiracy Theories are nothing like superstition or intellectual laziness if they are well researched and meticulously documented.

I agree. It is easier to believe in manipulation of a small market like silver than, say, a national stock market... especially when one can demonstrate concentration. Note that my post was in response to the casual observation that "everything is controlled," rather than to the original link regarding the silver market.

[ASH]

Re: What going on here?

They're Republocrats. One party masquerading as two.

I think the two parties have substantial differences on ideological issues, and the big challenge we face is getting enough of the electorate to care about substantive issues of policy to see the convergence. Unfortunately, one man's influence-driven convergence is another's "middle ground"... sometimes when you complain that politicians from both parties are supporting the same policy, you are just seen as a nut for questioning what is evidently uncontroversial to right-minded centrists. I am very disheartened because so many friends and relatives persist in seeing large substantive differences between Republicans and Democrats. In some cases, they are focussed on ideological issues (often issues that were settled in decade past!). In almost all cases, partisan Republicans or Democrats cannot seem to acknowledge the hand their party played in bringing us to this point. For instance, Democratic in-laws who remember financial de-regulation as being entirely a Republican affair, or Republicans who have a hard time remembering which administration gave us Medicare Part D. It is almost as if tribalism is at work -- people identify with a party and defend it, rather than asking themselves if they are well served by the party.

[unlucky]

Re: What going on here?

Conspiracy Theories are nothing like superstition or intellectual laziness if they are well researched and meticulously documented. Conspiracies happen all over the world, all the time. How many thosands of examples could a person uncover in history books. They're only referred to as theories until the truth comes out and then they're simply called history. The problem is that people refuse, for various reasons, to sincerely contemplate meticulously documented and compiled evidence if it sounds in any way conspiratorial, especially when their government overlords are involved. It all gets filed in the U.F.O's/bigfoot file, THAT is intellectual laziness!

There are plenty of conspiracy theories in circulation and most are daft, either because they assume secret cooperation between large numbers of individuals or because they assume the existence of amazingly intelligent and foresightful conspirators to explain events that could equally have been caused by plain stupidity (a commodity in abundant supply).

The silver/gold manipulation theory doesn't fall into those categories, as it requires only a small number of conspirators (CBs and a few big banks), and it doesn't assume foresight/intelligence (it assumes the opposite, in the long run). However the main argument against it is that the activity in the futures market is the natural result of market making, i.e. the big banks make an over-the-counter market in spot silver/gold and have to hedge their spot positions by taking large positions in exchange-traded futures.

For example, if your hedge fund clients tell you en-masse that they want to sell gold (over the counter), and you as a market maker are obliged to take the opposite side of those trades in a falling market, then you will want to hedge your growing position by selling gold futures. The futures trades are reported on the exchange, but the OTC trades are not.

These are relatively small markets (compared to equities) and have a limited number of significant market makers, therefore there would naturally be a lot of futures activity coming from a small number of big banks.

I don't know of the truth of this counter-argument, I occasionally read the "manipulation literature" and haven't seen any convincing refutation. But I'm keeping an open mind and I'd be interested in seeing a refutation if there is one. (I have a vested interest in seeing gold going up ;)).

[audrey_girl]

Re: What going on here?

Conspiracy Theories are nothing like superstition or intellectual laziness if they are well researched and meticulously documented. Conspiracies happen all over the world, all the time. How many thosands of examples could a person uncover in history books. They're only referred to as theories until the truth comes out and then they're simply called history. The problem is that people refuse, for various reasons, to sincerely contemplate meticulously documented and compiled evidence if it sounds in any way conspiratorial, especially when their government overlords are involved. It all gets filed in the U.F.O's/bigfoot file, THAT is intellectual laziness!

- agreed - conspiracies happen....

in fact, some of the most significant events in human history happened due to conspiracies,

For example:

Socrates was setup and forced to commit suicide by a conspiracy
Jesus was murdered by a conspiracy
Lincoln was murdered by a conspiracy
the Archduke Ferdinand was murdered by a conspiracy

[aaron]

Re: What going on here?

- agreed - conspiracies happen....

in fact, some of the most significant events in human history happened due to conspiracies,

For example:

Socrates was setup and forced to commit suicide by a conspiracy
Jesus was murdered by a conspiracy
Lincoln was murdered by a conspiracy
the Archduke Ferdinand was murdered by a conspiracy

Lincoln was a conspiracy? Man, I need to read some history.

[Chomsky]

Re: What going on here?

Lincoln was a conspiracy? Man, I need to read some history.

I suppose you do.



Here's what happened to the conspirators: