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  • A "Flood" of new oil..........

    Russia's Lukoil opens giant Iraq oil field, adding to crude glut

    Iraq's West Qurna-2 oilfield to transform oil markets as Baghdad targets daily output of 4m barrels this year

    Iraq is emerging as a global force oil as more production comes onstream






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    By Andrew Critchlow

    4:58PM GMT 29 Mar 2014

    63 Comments


    Russia's Lukoil has opened a giant untapped oil field in Iraq that will play a major part in driving up production to new highs in the Middle Eastern country and potentially force down the price of crude.

    Spigots in the West Qurna-2 field, Iraq’s second-biggest, were opened officially over the weekend in a move that will release 120,000 barrels per day of crude oil onto international markets. The field in Southern Iraq near Basra will eventually pump out 1.2m barrels-per-day (bpd) of oil.


    Iraq’s oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi has said that West Qurna-2 will enable the country to hit its target of pumping 4m bpd by the end of the year. Already the second-largest producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) after Saudi Arabia according to Reuters, Iraq pumped 3.5m bpd last month.


    However, the sharp rise in Iraq’s oil production is likely to spark tensions within Opec, which controls the world oil market. Baghdad currently operates outside the cartel’s quota system, which helps to maintain oil prices above $100 per barrel, the figure seen by most of its members including Saudi Arabia as vital for their economies to function.


    The resurgence of Iraq’s oil production comes amid hopes that neighbouring Iran will soon boost production if sanctions are lifted. Hussain al-Shahristani, Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, said earlier this year that Baghdad and Tehran were cooperating on petroleum strategy in a move that has challenged Saudi’s dominance of the 12-member group.

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    Iraq plans to almost triple its oil production capacity by 2020 to 9m bpd, which if achieved could flood world markets with crude. Although demand for fossil fuels continues to rise globally the development of shale oil and gas resources in the US has raised the chances of prices falling amid a glut of new supply.
    However, gains in Iraqi production are offset by ongoing political problems in Libya, which have disrupted exports from the North African country in addition to slow progress in lifting sanctions on Iran.

    The official opening of West Qurna-2 will also see Lukoil , which owns a 75pc stake in the field, become a major international player in the industry outside Russia. British oil giants BP and Royal Dutch Shell are also poised to benefit from Iraq's ambitious production plans. Both companies are already managing two huge oil fields in southern Iraq which are vital if Baghdad is to achieve its goal.
    The field is “strategically important” said Lukoil’s chief executive Vagit Alekperov.

    Lukoil has pressed ahead with its overseas operations despite the threat of sanctions being imposed on Russian companies by the US and the European Union over the Kremlin's land grab in Crimea.

  • #2
    Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...bs_article%3D1

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

      I made a friendly bet with one of my older brothers last fall that WTI would touch $60 sometime before end 2014. ;-)
      Either way, win or lose, we get to share a good bottle of wine...

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
        I made a friendly bet with one of my older brothers last fall that WTI would touch $60 sometime before end 2014. ;-)
        Either way, win or lose, we get to share a good bottle of wine...
        Peak Cheap Oil.

        We're not in Kansas anymore. Or Oklahoma, as the case may be.



        If the AFC had not occurred in theory the oil price will be $150 by Apr. 2014.

        But the AFC had to happen because the oil price reached $147 in 2008, to produce the recession that lowered oil demand and price but only to $40.

        But if the AFC occurred and Fortress America energy policy had not been undertaken starting in 2003 then the oil price in Apr 2014 is ~$130.

        But if the oil price was $130 by Apr 2014 then the economy is in recession and the oil price is falling now.

        But if the AFC occurred and Fortress America energy policy is undertaken starting in 2003 then the oil price in Apr 2014 is ~$100.

        Can the oil price fall below $80 in 2014?

        Yes, if -- and only if -- the global economy collapses as much as it did in 2008.

        Welcome to PCO.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

          Originally posted by EJ View Post
          Peak Cheap Oil.

          We're not in Kansas anymore. Or Oklahoma, as the case may be.



          If the AFC had not occurred in theory the oil price will be $150 by Apr. 2014.

          But the AFC had to happen because the oil price reached $147 in 2008, to produce the recession that lowered oil demand and price but only to $40.

          But if the AFC occurred and Fortress America energy policy had not been undertaken starting in 2003 then the oil price in Apr 2014 is ~$130.

          But if the oil price was $130 by Apr 2014 then the economy is in recession and the oil price is falling now.

          But if the AFC occurred and Fortress America energy policy is undertaken starting in 2003 then the oil price in Apr 2014 is ~$100.

          Can the oil price fall below $80 in 2014?

          Yes, if -- and only if -- the global economy collapses as much as it did in 2008.

          Welcome to PCO.

          I think my thesis is consistent with PCO. I made a wager that WTI would touch $60 some time during 2014 (and in behind the paywall posted a similar outlook some months ago). I have no idea if I will be proven correct, as I have also posted many, many times that forecasting oil prices over short time intervals is a mugs game.

          However, here's my thinking...and why I do not think it inconsistent with PCO.

          First I was specific about WTI. The differential between WTI and the most popular global index, Brent, is being influenced by factors that have nothing to do with global supply, demand or GDP, and everything to do with USA domestic pipeline, truck, rail, barge and refining capacity...all of which are presently overtaxed while the upstream industry does what it always does...drill baby, drill. I just got back from a short trip to Dallas and Midland, TX. I made a 2 hour drive northwest of Dallas to meet a biz associate. I had the rental car on cruise control at 75 mph in the right lane. Once I got out of Fort Worth I was being passed by an almost continuous line of trucks hauling drill pipe...I gave up counting them.

          Then I flew from DFW to Midland. What I saw there and out in Pecos County confirmed what I expected. The big boys, Apache, Anadarko, and others similar are drilling up a storm. They won't stop until they, and industry as a whole, create a price drop...that is the usual scenario in pretty well every drilling boom. If Brent price cracks, WTI will probably be more volatile this time.

          Second, I wagered "touch $60". If the oil price declines, but does it by way of a gentle drift down to perhaps $80ish, I'll lose the bet with my brother. Possible, but not a typical commodity (oil) price decline. Usually once the oil price cracks the speculators exit their long dated futures en masse creating a selling avalanche and oil overshoots to the downside. All that is needed is a single intraday trade settled at $60. If that happens I would expect a pretty healthy bounce in the oil price immediately after...but I will nevertheless be placing an order with my brother for an expensive bottle of Margaux.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

            Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
            I think my thesis is consistent with PCO. I made a wager that WTI would touch $60 some time during 2014 (and in behind the paywall posted a similar outlook some months ago). I have no idea if I will be proven correct, as I have also posted many, many times that forecasting oil prices over short time intervals is a mugs game.

            However, here's my thinking...and why I do not think it inconsistent with PCO.

            First I was specific about WTI. The differential between WTI and the most popular global index, Brent, is being influenced by factors that have nothing to do with global supply, demand or GDP, and everything to do with USA domestic pipeline, truck, rail, barge and refining capacity...all of which are presently overtaxed while the upstream industry does what it always does...drill baby, drill. I just got back from a short trip to Dallas and Midland, TX. I made a 2 hour drive northwest of Dallas to meet a biz associate. I had the rental car on cruise control at 75 mph in the right lane. Once I got out of Fort Worth I was being passed by an almost continuous line of trucks hauling drill pipe...I gave up counting them.

            Then I flew from DFW to Midland. What I saw there and out in Pecos County confirmed what I expected. The big boys, Apache, Anadarko, and others similar are drilling up a storm. They won't stop until they, and industry as a whole, create a price drop...that is the usual scenario in pretty well every drilling boom. If Brent price cracks, WTI will probably be more volatile this time.

            Second, I wagered "touch $60". If the oil price declines, but does it by way of a gentle drift down to perhaps $80ish, I'll lose the bet with my brother. Possible, but not a typical commodity (oil) price decline. Usually once the oil price cracks the speculators exit their long dated futures en masse creating a selling avalanche and oil overshoots to the downside. All that is needed is a single intraday trade settled at $60. If that happens I would expect a pretty healthy bounce in the oil price immediately after...but I will nevertheless be placing an order with my brother for an expensive bottle of Margaux.
            I would like to understand why you think oil has any chance of moving below $90 this year. I don't see how over production will do more than keep oil from moving back up to or above $140 and causing a recession. Over production is just keeping oil in a reasonable price range. It's not possible to produce enough to drive the price down, only a severe recession can do that. I don't know 1% as much as you do about the oil business but I'm just observing the world economy and I don't see a break soon enough to save you from some serious brother shame.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

              My 85 mpg motorcycle laughs at your oil prices, whether they are $60 or $150!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                Good eveing Gents
                I like to point out that not very long ago the Northsea produced just under 3 million BPD, now "they" admit to 850 thousand....there is good "intel" that its less then 675 thousand...."Brent" no longer produces any oil.

                If the Northsea is going belly up you think that "perhaps" lots of other fields are as well?

                Mike

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                  Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                  I would like to understand why you think oil has any chance of moving below $90 this year. I don't see how over production will do more than keep oil from moving back up to or above $140 and causing a recession. Over production is just keeping oil in a reasonable price range. It's not possible to produce enough to drive the price down, only a severe recession can do that. I don't know 1% as much as you do about the oil business but I'm just observing the world economy and I don't see a break soon enough to save you from some serious brother shame.
                  It's a purely USA WTI related wager. There's lots of moving parts in the equation but in a nutshell:

                  1. Unlikely to receive approval from Washington to export large quantities of crude oil;
                  2. Rig utilization is rising, so domestic gas and oil production both likely continue to increase for a while yet.
                  3. Gas substitution is accelerating rapidly; the oil and gas industry is walkin' the talk by converting drilling rigs, frac spreads, water heating and boilers to CNG and LNG supply now. Other industries, including shipping, rail and mining are coming along. This change won't materially influence actual oil product consumption in one year (2014), but there is the very real possibility that it influences market sentiment toward future demand for diesel and other oil derivative fuels.
                  4. These two trends have not yet changed:



                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                    Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
                    My 85 mpg motorcycle laughs at your oil prices, whether they are $60 or $150!
                    My 230 mpg Volt laughs at your 85 mpg motorcycle....sorry, I couldn't resist.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........



                      But wait! My new motorcycle cost $4,000.

                      Beat that, good sir!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                        Originally posted by BadJuju View Post


                        But wait! My new motorcycle cost $4,000.

                        Beat that, good sir!
                        Money is one aspect of the issue...but...there are other issues.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                          PCO = Peak cheap oil

                          what is AFC ???

                          what is FA ???

                          UPDATED: AFC = American Financial Crisis

                          da!

                          Jeees I hate acronyms!!!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                            Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                            Money is one aspect of the issue...but...there are other issues.
                            Well played, Mr. santafe. Well played!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: A "Flood" of new oil..........

                              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                              It's a purely USA WTI related wager. There's lots of moving parts in the equation but in a nutshell:

                              1. Unlikely to receive approval from Washington to export large quantities of crude oil;
                              2. Rig utilization is rising, so domestic gas and oil production both likely continue to increase for a while yet.
                              3. Gas substitution is accelerating rapidly; the oil and gas industry is walkin' the talk by converting drilling rigs, frac spreads, water heating and boilers to CNG and LNG supply now. Other industries, including shipping, rail and mining are coming along. This change won't materially influence actual oil product consumption in one year (2014), but there is the very real possibility that it influences market sentiment toward future demand for diesel and other oil derivative fuels.
                              4. These two trends have not yet changed:
                              Thanks GRG. Will you wait until mid 2015 to call a winner? You'll need to ensure if this happens that it's not recession induced. Even without a recession I suppose it would have to be a quick dip to $60 because my understanding is that most of this production isn't profitable at $60 a barrel. We'll see, you still have 9 months.

                              Comment

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