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Wow folks another phenomenal year in Real Estate in God Blessed Vancouver. Once again Shiller proved how wrong he was on Vancouver Real Estate by his uneducated comments regarding Vancouver being tghe bubbliest City in the World over a half decade ago!!! Anyone who listened to him lost out big time. Those who listened to me over the past years have made a fortune, their families and friends proud. 2011 and going forward is just going to be awesome for Vancouver. With home prices trending above 2 million on the West Side we are poised to see 10 million plus home prices as an average over the next 20 years. I haven't posted for awhile because I wanted to let the housing stats speak for themself. God Bless Vancouver the BestPlaceOnEarth
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
glad to hear from you again, vgu. you always bring a little cheer to this gloomy bunch.
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
Is this a joke posting? Hope you are planning to get out soon, I think the top is in and just like the US when it dives it's going to dive hard.Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View PostComment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
Waiting for the Vancouver property bubble to burst seems much like waiting for Godot...
High prices, strong demand, offshore investment skew Canadian numbers
By Derrick Penner, Vancouver Sun April 16, 2011
From Vancouver realtor Tom Gradecak’s perch inside the market that the Canadian Real Estate Association says skewed the national picture at the end of March, things seem to have cooled a bit — but in a relative sense.
“Earlier in the year you could pretty well list a house and almost there were going to be seven, eight, nine, 10 offers, sometimes more,” Gradecak said. “Now, we’re seeing two or three or four, which is still, relatively speaking it’s busy, [but] not quite as frenzied.”
Metro Vancouver saw 4,080 sales in March, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which was a 31.7-per-cent increase compared with February’s 3,097 sales, a 30.1-per-cent increase from the 3,137 sales in March of the previous year and the third-highest for any March on record...
“...A record number of multi-million-dollar property sales in Richmond and [Vancouver’s west side] are pushing up average prices for Greater Vancouver, British Columbia and nationally,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “If Vancouver is excluded from the equation, the national average price increase is cut by more than half.”.
Porter said that on a national basis, sales are generally trending downward, but Metro Vancouver’s 30-per-cent jump in March stands out in stark contrast.
“That absolutely is swimming against the tide, and that’s before you get into the whole issue of prices,” Porter said.
Porter said that for the most part, Canada’s overall market “looks to be headed for a soft landing, at least in the vast majority of cities” with respect to the market cycle.
However, he added that the risk of a severe correction in the market “looks highly concentrated in geographic terms.”
“Obviously Vancouver has very special and specific dynamics,” he said referring to the influx of offshore investment.
“I’m not here to say it’s headed for an imminent fall or anything, but it does seem to have diverged from underlying economic realities,” Porter added.
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
from the article linked immediately above:
However, Metro Vancouver is also seeing an influx of foreign buying, particularly from China, which is also shaping the picture in this market, according to Douglas Porter, the Bank of Montreal’s deputy chief economist.
so maybe we should view the vancouver market as slop-over from the chinese property bubble, eh?Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
Originally posted by jk View Post
Ever been to Vancouver? Downtown looks like Hong Kong with all its tawdry and tasteless apartment towers.Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
i was there once, but at the time the loonie was only us$0.68, so a while ago.Originally posted by Chomsky View PostComment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
I live in Vancouver. Am WASP, A new twist to the new chinese immigating to Vancouver vs the many older long term Chinese residents. The new immigant comes with money and generally connected to the higher ups in the Chinese government. Some of these new affluent chinese immgrants tend to have a "past life" in China that lead to many of British Columbia's older chinese residents fleeing China in the first place. These feelings can be more than anger. There is a very real possiblity "revenge for past acts in China" may errupt, causing the new chinese arrivals to rethink their decission to stay or invest in Vancouver.Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
I just got back from Vancouver a few hours ago. The last time I was there was before the Olympics.
It is cleaner now, at least the parts of town that I saw.
There was a lot of traffic for a Sunday afternoon.
There were many For Sale signs.
There are now even more Asians.
It looks like there is an election coming up. All the signs in people's yards for politicians include Chinese writing.
There were also general street signs that were written in Chinese, English and French. Previously, there was a lot less Chinese. Newspaper stands on the streets (not in Chinatown) have a Chinese newspaper for sale.
So, all I can surmise, is that all the Chinese that are making a bit of money (millionaires) are buying a place in Vancouver. Heck, we all have talked about a "back up" country, or some place good to move to. If you were a Chinese multi-millionaire, and you wanted to protect your family...Where would you go? Where can you go where you are relatively welcome to come and "invest" (which I bet includes real estate) and not know the language? Vancouver is a direct flight away from most major Asian cities.
Anyway, VancouverGoingUP, I have to say, has been right. If he calls the top, before it happens, that would be trick, no?
I know little about real estate, but I do know there are A LOT of millionaires in China. It is quite possible that a place in Vancouver is one of the must-have trophy properties that can act as back up for the day that the SHTF.Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
A friend purchased his expensive, primary house there about 18 months ago, ... he reluctantly sold it last week for a 35%-40% capitals free gain. He counted himself lucky - timing a bubble is always hopeless. Whenever I talk to people about how out of whack the income to house price ratios are in Vancouver, etc... I hear the same familiar tell tale signs of the end of the bubble nigh - "but, all the foreigners are buying". While this may be more true for Vancouver than anywhere else, it will certainly be interesting to watch from the sidelines when Chinese problems come to a head within 6-12 months probably.Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View Post--ST (aka steveaustin2006)Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
Originally posted by VancouverGoinUp View Post
Apparently the ThirdBestPlaceOnEarth now...
Melbourne world's best city; Perth top 10Maybe they need to coin a new byline for Vancouver to keep bringing in the tourists and the Chinese home buyers?
30-Aug-2011 by AAP
Melbourne has knocked Vancouver off its perch as the best city in the world to live in, while Perth has scraped into the top ten, ranked the world’s eighth most liveable city.
Sydney and Adelaide also made it into the top ten.
It's the first time in almost a decade of the global liveability survey that Vancouver hasn't ranked as the best place to live in the world...
How about "Come to Vancouver. It's a Riot"...
Thousands rioted downtown after Game 7 on June 15
By Mike Howell, Vancouver Courier
August 31, 2011
The public will learn Thursday the results of an independent review conducted over the past two months into the riot that erupted downtown June 15 after the Vancouver Canucks lost Game 7 to the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final...
...Two weeks ago, Chu told reporters "no one is more frustrated than I am that every last one" of the hundreds of "thugs and rioters" are not before the courts or in prison. But Chu explained, as he has several times, why no charges have been approved against rioters.
He said the probe is the largest investigation ever conducted, in terms of suspects in one event, in Vancouver and possibly Canada. It will take months before all the evidence is processed and police are ready to make arrests...
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
And if there was any remaining doubt that Vancouver is the Mother of All Bubbles in developed economy real estate, this entertaining little clip [after you get past the adverts] from the CBC should dispel any remaining doubt :-)
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canad.../ID=2096260306Comment
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Re: 2010 BulletProof Vancouver
While there may be many rich asians propping up the real estate market in Vancouver, the reality is that the value of real estate is determined only by what is sold. I don't have stats for Vancouver, but the biggest city next door, Victoria (where I live), only 5% of homes exchange hands each year. That means, 100% of homes have their value determined by the 5% that sell each year. I imagine in Vancouver the sold % / year is very similar within 1 or 2% points. So this is how a real estate bubble in Vancouver can also be sustained - All that's required is that ~5% of specuvestors can be found each year, most of which are rumoured to be from abroad.
If China pops the big one, and foreign capital dries up, it's not going to be the locals with less than 100K/year family income that can sustain 1 Million dollar average prices. This bubble has gone on far far longer than it should have, but that will only make the bust even bigger. Earlier this year, I actually saw some interesting news articles about average people who actually live in Vancouver lobbying the government to limit or eradicate foreigners from being able to buy real estate, as they had been priced out of the market. I don't think that went very far, but just another tell tail sign that affordability has erroded to new highs.
I've been watching this bubble for about 5 years now. Originally I was thinking that an increase in interest rates and mortgage rates by extension would kill it. But alas, the global recession has kept those rates artificially low for an extended period that may drag on for another couple of years (See US fed "low interest rates to 2013"). Canada isn't very original with their interest rate policies, any historical interest rate chart will quickly show we mostly just mimic the USA with a very small margin of difference.
This means that the bubble does have some chance of growing to even greater heights, unless we see another major leg down in equity markets and/or China bubble pops, or the US stops printing money and running on ZIRP. Further, the Albertan oil pipe to Texas, if it happens, may add even more fuel to the fire as some of those folks are known for investing in real estate in Victoria and Vancouver after they make their $$ in the oil rigs. That said, even those $100K/year jobs, will find it hard to purchase $1 Million+ crack shacks.
One thing is for sure, I don't see the average Vancouverite being able to support anywhere near the current housing prices based on average incomes, so external factors are the things to keep an eye on and if that 2008 dip is any indication of how fast prices can collapse (15% in just a few months). Then I expect nothing but increased downside risk, as this roller coaster continues to rise - for now.
Lastly, to anyone considering to "invest" in Vancouver real estate, may want to consider the chart below: As fast as Vancouver home prices have been rising, the price of gold has been out-pacing the rise in Vancouver housing for many years, and if anything that rise is likely to accelerate if we've just entered 'stage 3'.
OUNCES OF GOLD REQUIRED TO BUY CANADIAN REAL ESTATE (each year fewer ounces are required)
Warning: Network Engineer talking economics!
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